Will McCain pull out Pennsylvania?

[Keystone Phil]

Right now Obama leads by about 10-12 pts in the all the polls that have been coming out of PA recently.  But honestly, like I've been saying, does that make any sense?  Look at Kerry 2004. 

-Philly's already maxed out, the city goes 80% for the Dem every time.  Obama's not going to able to improve THAT much.

-Central PA is going to be brutal for him

-Do you see Obama doing better than Kerry in the Pittsburgh area?  I don't. 

So basically, were supposed to believe Obama is picking up TEN points in the state overall from the Philly 'burbs.  Maybe 4 or 5.... not 10. 

I would say that it is very likely that the internals are showing PA reasonably close to the nat'l average... close enough for McCain to stay because he need to close the national gap to win anyway.  Michigan is too stubborn... there was no way McCain was winning it... and if he did it's not like he would've needed it. 

PA is not going to be a 55-43 Obama blowout like the polls show right now.  McCain's chances of winning are beyond slim... but on election day I see McCain doing reasonably well consider that he's looking at a 6 pt loss nationally right now. 

I'll call it 53-45 Obama. 

Take a look at the Casey vs. Santorum map.

If current trends continue, it won't be much different with Obama vs. McCain ...

Actually, you should use a Rendell map instead.

LOL

60% to 40%?

Wow.

[Alcon]

I think he probably meant that Obama will do better in Rendell strongholds than Casey ones, Phil, not that he'll win by twenty points.

[Lunar]

Right now Obama leads by about 10-12 pts in the all the polls that have been coming out of PA recently.  But honestly, like I've been saying, does that make any sense?  Look at Kerry 2004. 

-Philly's already maxed out, the city goes 80% for the Dem every time.  Obama's not going to able to improve THAT much.

-Central PA is going to be brutal for him

-Do you see Obama doing better than Kerry in the Pittsburgh area?  I don't. 

So basically, were supposed to believe Obama is picking up TEN points in the state overall from the Philly 'burbs.  Maybe 4 or 5.... not 10. 

I would say that it is very likely that the internals are showing PA reasonably close to the nat'l average... close enough for McCain to stay because he need to close the national gap to win anyway.  Michigan is too stubborn... there was no way McCain was winning it... and if he did it's not like he would've needed it. 

PA is not going to be a 55-43 Obama blowout like the polls show right now.  McCain's chances of winning are beyond slim... but on election day I see McCain doing reasonably well consider that he's looking at a 6 pt loss nationally right now. 

I'll call it 53-45 Obama. 

Take a look at the Casey vs. Santorum map.

If current trends continue, it won't be much different with Obama vs. McCain ...

Actually, you should use a Rendell map instead.

LOL

60% to 40%?

Wow.

No silly, it's just Obama is closer to a Rendell-like character than a Casey one.

[Tender Branson]

Right now Obama leads by about 10-12 pts in the all the polls that have been coming out of PA recently.  But honestly, like I've been saying, does that make any sense?  Look at Kerry 2004. 

-Philly's already maxed out, the city goes 80% for the Dem every time.  Obama's not going to able to improve THAT much.

-Central PA is going to be brutal for him

-Do you see Obama doing better than Kerry in the Pittsburgh area?  I don't. 

So basically, were supposed to believe Obama is picking up TEN points in the state overall from the Philly 'burbs.  Maybe 4 or 5.... not 10. 

I would say that it is very likely that the internals are showing PA reasonably close to the nat'l average... close enough for McCain to stay because he need to close the national gap to win anyway.  Michigan is too stubborn... there was no way McCain was winning it... and if he did it's not like he would've needed it. 

PA is not going to be a 55-43 Obama blowout like the polls show right now.  McCain's chances of winning are beyond slim... but on election day I see McCain doing reasonably well consider that he's looking at a 6 pt loss nationally right now. 

I'll call it 53-45 Obama. 

Take a look at the Casey vs. Santorum map.

If current trends continue, it won't be much different with Obama vs. McCain ...

Actually, you should use a Rendell map instead.

LOL

60% to 40%?

Wow.

I'd say 56-43 or 57-42 right now.

[Frodo]

He should -McCain will be better off shoring up the states that he should be winning, i.e. Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, West Virginia, and Indiana.  Given his limited resources, he doesn't have much choice.  If he is going down in defeat, he might as well lose holding as many states Bush won as possible, particularly in the South and in the border states to avoid making his likely loss to Obama more humiliating than it ought to be.   

Disagree.  If the national numbers swing back in his favor, he could do damage in PA.  If not, he loses anyway.

McCain has a better chance of winning Ohio than he does on winning Pennsylvania.  Even Bush couldn't win the state. 

Of course.  McCain will win Ohio.

You missed my point.  He will -in all likelihood- have as much trouble trying to win Ohio as he will have in winning Missouri, Virginia, and Florida given the way things are going.  Polls show the race to be quite tight in that state, more so than in Pennsylvania.  Why should McCain waste his time and money trying to campaign in a state that hasn't gone Republican since 1988 when he could more efficiently allocate his attention and finite resources in states that have a more reliable track record of voting Republican, but which are in danger of falling into Obama's column?   

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

RCP has Obama +13.4 in PA.  By the polls, NJ is a closer race.

OTOH, RCP has Obama +7.8 in MI, +8.8 in WI, and +8.3 in MN.

Now, a steal of the Keystone State would offset the loss of any Bush state save Florida.  But Michigan offsets anything but Florida or Ohio.  A Wisconsin or Minnesota win would make up for Nevada OR Colorado OR Missouri OR Indiana (with a net loss of 1 EV, which is ok).

Unless McCain's campaign knows something that no one else does, the abandonment of Michigan and the push for Pennsylvania may prove to be a fatal strategic blunder.  There are easier EV targets.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A big blunder, but hardly fatal. That's like saying McGovern dropping Eagleton was a fatal blunder, as if he would've won otherwise.

[TheGlobalizer]

I buy the current 13%, but suspect they're super-soft.  The best-ever day on Wall Street today could be the beginning of a pendulum swing.