On the Record: NJ

[DownWithTheLeft]

Inspired by WalterMitty's on the record MA governor's thread, here is the thread to post your official prediction for the NJ Senate race so you can be called on it after the election:

Here is mine:
Kean 52 - Menendez 47

[DownWithTheLeft]

Funny how it seems most of the forum was thinking or has switched to thinking Kean will win, but Menendez is doubling him up.  And if people are going to vote, please state who u r and what you voted you can be pointed out later if you picked Menendez because you will be wrong.  Personally, I think Menendez is the worst option, there is a better chance another Dem will win the race.

[DownWithTheLeft]

It's not over until its over, but at this point I think Kean is the favorite.

It's close to over, one more Menendez scandal and were talking close to likely Republican from lean Republican.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

Just when I was starting to think you might be a Republican

It doesn't matter, NJ wouldn't have voted Torricelli in 2002, and won't Menendez in 2006.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

Just when I was starting to think you might be a Republican

zhuh?

He is showing that he is really a closet Democrat and Menendez supporter trying to make the GOP look bad.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

Just when I was starting to think you might be a Republican

zhuh?

He is showing that he is really a closet Democrat and Menendez supporter trying to make the GOP look bad.

Because he wants the GOP candidate to win?

He only says that, if he really supported Kean, he would realize he was the favorite, as even most Menendez suporters are.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Kean 49-48

It will be the second closest senate race in the nation, after Missouri.

Why do you think MO will be that close?  I think Talent will probably pull ahead and win by more like 5.  I personally think PA and MT will be much closer.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

Conan and Smash are as much hackish as they are delusional, there is no way if Menendez wins he wins by a bigger margin than Corzine.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Conan and Smash are as much hackish as they are delusional

This coming from one of the most notorious hacks on the forum.

No, I'm actually quite realistic, obviously you missed a lot of my quotes about things like the MN and OH races and gas prices.  Being anywhere on the right in this forum makes you a hack to most people.  No of the things I said really go 100% against facts at hand.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

You are an idiot. I have never said anything unrealistic on this forum or uncalled for.

Saying that Bob Menendez and Jon Corzine are not corrupt or part of the Democratic machine, or that the scandal will not hurt him but Kean, Chris Christie is a partisan prosecutor (check his record), and that Menendez is still the favorite is just overly optimism, not reality.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Oooh, Kean is distantly related to George Bush. So is John Kerry. Big deal.

Did you not read what I wrote before that? I said pretty much not that it matters really. I was just pointing out a interesting fact.

I'm wondering if conan really is Bob Menendez?

It certainly sounds like it,
He also confuses things

NJ: Predicting Bob Menendez to win is not wrong, saying he is the favorite in NJ is wrong, b/c at the moment Tom Kean Jr. is the favorite

PA: Predicting Rick Santorum to win is not wrong, saying he is the favorite in PA is wrong, b/c at the moment Bob Casey is the favorite.

Look Conan, live in a bubble, but you fighting an uphill battle whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

Conan and Smash are as much hackish as they are delusional, there is no way if Menendez wins he wins by a bigger margin than Corzine.

1.  I never stated that Mendez would win by a larger margin than Corzine.  In fact I moved the race to tossup in my lateast senate map, though I think Menendez will still win by about 5 points.

Your a little kid and their are things you don't seem to grasp

NJ isn't going to go Republican just because you want it to...

Its a strong Democratic state, that absolutley despises Bush.  Menendez has his problems no question about it, but the fact the political makeup of the state is what it is, and the fact their is a strong anti Bush climate in the state makes it real hard for the GOP to pick up the seat.  When is the last time the President's party picked up a Senate Seat in a state where that President had approvals hovering around 30% in?

Maybe you'll get it when you get your head out of the sand and realize the race has nothing to do w/Bush

[DownWithTheLeft]

I watched ads from both for the first time today.

Kean made a mistake having McCain in his ad. Even though McCain is far more popular than Bush, he's still a national Republican, and this is New Jersey. Associating with someone as conservative as McCain and bringing attention to the national Republican party is not a smart thing to do in NJ.

Menendez's ad was pretty good, especially when he concludes by saying "My opponent supports Bush's war, I could not disagree more"

McCain is actually quite popular in NJ.  Anyone have the poll link, but I know when Rasmussen did it it was something like 60 or 65% approval.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Here we go again... it looks like Rob Andrews is angling for the Dem Senate nomination if Menendez goes the way of "the Torch."

This is the insider report from politicalwire.com:

"Rep. Robert Andrews (D-NJ), who was riding an Amtrak train late last week to New Jersey, was overheard talking on his cell phone "about a scandal breaking that very evening implicating" Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), according to Roll Call.

The source on the train said Andrews discussed "the prospect of Democrats having to replace Menendez on the ballot with another Senate nominee." (Political Wire readers will remember Andrews wanted the appointment to replace Jon Corzine but Menendez got the nod instead.) The informant heard Andrews say, "A 60-day campaign is doable; a 30-day campaign is death."

However, a second source on the train "confirmed that quote but said it had nothing to do with a possible replacement on the ballot. He said it had to do with the timing of the Menendez scandal and whether it would be easier to deal with 30 or 60 days from Election Day."

Both sources confirmed Andrews said, "He's no Forrester," implying that Tom Kean, Jr. (R) is a much more formidable candidate than former GOP Senate nominee Doug Forrester (R)."

Shhh..., don't tell Conan, he's still living in the "Menendez is going to win by a sizeable margin w/virtually no challenge" bubble

[DownWithTheLeft]

Anyone catch Chris Cristie swipe at Corzine, talking about how the AG he picked came right from Christie's office

Anyone notice how Corzine said Cristie was doing a good job and only questioned the timing, not the substance, of his prosecution