Florida 2022 Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Charlie's running

Ugh. The dude is opening up a potentially competitive House seat for suicidal run 4 gov?

[Sir Mohamed]

D's lead on Generic ballot 47/42 that's more than ENOUGH to win OH, FL, IA or NC, Obama lost 201o midterms as you recall

2010 isnot a good example

2018 isn't a good example either. Democrats won't get 2018 Turnout Levels in 2022. Trust me on this!

I don't think DeSantis would lose even with 2018 turnout, tbh. That said, I expect turnout to remain relatively high by US standards for at least a few cycles to come. DeSantis is favored regardless, and high turnout doesn't automatically benefit Dems exclusively.

[Sir Mohamed]

CRIST is the only one that can win the Gov race, he can take Cubans away from DeSantis, Deming's can't

The only thing that can take away Cubans from DeSantis is a strong Democratic party organization, voter outreach in both Spanish and English, and disinformation combating campaigns built up and consistently done several years in advance of the election (not to mention the price of this, if money is spent efficiently, probably would cost less than the biennial three-week-long ad blitz Democrats do in the state). Crist would fail if he can't do all of those things and more very, very well.

Also, Crist would probably do worse than Fried or John Morgan but that's just IMO. Does he have some personal connections to the Cuban community?

You're not gonna convince me that's why we have Predictions, we won Red state AZ and KS, out it on your Prediction

I go by polls except for NH, last poll had it a tie, just like PPP had OH Senate race a tie
..
Change Research has Hassan in much better shape against Sununu than partisan polls

Users aren't gonna convince D's that it's suddenly an R friendly Environment and they trail on Generic ballot 47/42

Generic ballot nationwide is irrelevant in a FL gubernatorial election. If this was remotely relevant, Gillum would have won in 2018, while Scott would have won landslides in 2010 and 2014 instead of 1% nailbaiters.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh. Dude isn't going to win.

Y'all are welcome to bump my posts in Nov. 2022 if he wins against DeSantis and call me an idiot.

[Sir Mohamed]

Unless a Quinnepiac University poll shows D's winning FL Unfortunately, DeSantis is safe and Biden has the exact Approvals he had on Election night meaning he loses FL by 3 pts

You said few days ago I'm DeSantis apologist and CRIST can win with 47-42 generic ballot?

[Sir Mohamed]

I dunno why Crist, Demings and Fried all are lining up for defeat in the GE? Even if Demings runs against Rubio, I don't see her winning either. She may come unexpectedly close with law enforcement background. I think that could help her in this state.

[Sir Mohamed]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

Florida governor races are always close, and DeSantis is too closely tied with Trump.That isn't a bad thing per se, but Democrats will be enthused to show up for him and Fried would be manage to capture that anti-Trump/DeSantis hate at the polls.

This is a very lazy argument...

Indiana 2012/2016 gov races were close so the 2020 must be close too...

The party which holds the power in DC can not win the VA gov race so Cucinelli is going to prevail in VA...

You see, the problem with these patterns is that they are true until they break, but they are not some sort of eternal rules

Also judging from polls you have a good number of voters who voted Biden and who approve DeSantis, I'm not sure how running on " a anti DeSantis hate message " is going to work with them, the anti DeSantis/Trump base is simply far too small to win a statewide race in FL

Yup, I agree. It's not even true for FL before 2010. Crist himself was easily elected as the GOP nominee in 2006 despite his now former party losing both Houses of congress and Nelson winning reelection with 60% of the vote.

That said, I don't think Crist is a bad candidate, but he's entering this race as an underdog. Wasn't the case in 2013. My prediction is that polls will show this race competitive throughout this year and well into Q2 of 2022, but DeSantis will pull ahead by mid to high single digits in summer and fall and then win by a margin of anywhere between 7 and 11 pts. Just hope Dems won't fall for the early polls (yet again).

[Sir Mohamed]

Some of the takes in this thread are bodering on self parody. High single digits? Seriously? This is Florida, an actually close state not Ohio.

Rubio won by 8 in 2016 and Trump by 4 in 2020, while latter was a more Dem friendly year. In a bese case scenario, Crist comes within 3 or 4 pts, but I don't think that's going to happen as of today. DeSantis will win by 7 to 11 pts. Happy to be proven wrong in Nov. 2022 and you're welcome to bump my posts if the Dem gets within 1 point or even wins.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hung out at Trump's DC Hotel means... they had some kind of intimate relationship? Ugh, ugh.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/annette_taddeo/status/1458041682344120326?s=21

LOL, that may actually hurt?

[Sir Mohamed]

Crist and Demings went from in a mnth 12 and 19 back to six behind because Marco Rubio is Filibustering VR and the Defense Bill,

Why do you take every poll seriously coming out so far ahead of the election?

This race is Likely or Safe R

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/NikkiFried/status/1469131184517046279

It's clear that Fried's political skills are very questionable. How the hell did she even get elected in the first place?

And that she won while Bill Nelson lost is even more astonishing.

Possible that I'm missing something obvious, but I don't see what is politically toxic here?

To answer both questions, I think the point here is that this may come off as "identity politics", which isn't exactly a winning strategy in purple or lean red territory. It's not per se problematic as a political standpoint, just not the best campaign strategy. That said, at this point she's not trying to win the GE but the Dem nomination.

How did she get elected in the first place? It's a lower profile office with less partisanship and a few thousand votes made a difference. Nelson and Gillum just barely lost. She didn't much crossover votes.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL. Crist has humor, or at least the people doing his social media. Still not going to win.

https://twitter.com/CharlieCrist/status/1471246395189383175

[Sir Mohamed]

Watching Crist and Fried campaign, I really don't see how this is going anywhere, tbh. Their entire campaign theme seems "DeathSantis is bad" and "I beat DeSantis" with no real message beyond that. For sure this is an uphill battle no matter what, but their messaging really sucks. Who advises them? Seriously?

[Sir Mohamed]

Sure.jan

https://twitter.com/CharlieCrist/status/1478161977969098753

[Sir Mohamed]

Jfc, who is advising these people? How is this the best Dems can do in a state with 21 million people in it? It's just embarrassing.

I would assume the same geniuses that advised Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum, among unsuccessful Dem candidates. Secondly, even good advisers are worthless if candidates don't listen to them. The fish usually stinks from the head.

[Sir Mohamed]

Demings is the bright spot of the FLDP.

Demings can beat Rubio if Roe is gone, a lot of Floridian women will be pissed.

Crist is washed up, Fried and Demings could drive female turnout, but Demings will overperform Fried

I don't think she can. Perhaos do better than Crist, but does it matter when she loses by 5-6 instead of 9-10 pts?

[Sir Mohamed]

Both Fried and Crist are hilariously inept, which is symptomatic for FL Dems. No message that connects with voters, no big efforts to register new voters and better, more differentiated messaging. Fried's 2018 win was pretty much a fluke in a race people didn't pay much attention to. It's not a demonstration for actual electability.

The DNC shouldn't lift a finger and waste a single dime in this gov race. Put all the efforts into flipping the GA governorship, especially that you have an unpopular incumbent or a dude who already lost a statewide race in 2020 paired with a strong candidate (Abrams).

It certainly sucks Dems are so inept here; I wouldn't be surprised at this point to see Dems fail flipping this seat during the next R midterm while TX is actually within reach or won.

[Sir Mohamed]

Both Fried and Crist are hilariously inept, which is symptomatic for FL Dems. No message that connects with voters, no big efforts to register new voters and better, more differentiated messaging. Fried's 2018 win was pretty much a fluke in a race people didn't pay much attention to. It's not a demonstration for actual electability.

The DNC shouldn't lift a finger and waste a single dime in this gov race. Put all the efforts into flipping the GA governorship, especially that you have an unpopular incumbent or a dude who already lost a statewide race in 2020 paired with a strong candidate (Abrams).

It certainly sucks Dems are so inept here; I wouldn't be surprised at this point to see Dems fail flipping this seat during the next R midterm while TX is actually within reach or won.

Lol TX isn't flipping with inept Beto

I said the next R midterm, which is 2026 at earliest.

[Sir Mohamed]

D's aren't winning FL

It's 300 days to election. Upsets can happen 😎

[Sir Mohamed]

I have been back and forth on this race because don't have any polls once again from FL or TX DeSANTIS underpolled Gillum see obits a chance he can lose to Crist, Crist and Beto are serious candidates compared to Valdez and HEGAR and GILLUM

The Rs are gonna do very well at SOS and AG and state legislature but it's the Gov, H and S that matters we need FL or TX to put breaks on an RH

Polls do underestimate not White vote but Blk and Latino votes

FL polls overestimated Dem support in 2018 and 2020. Given the current environment, there's little reason to believe DeSantis wins by less than 6-7 pts. 9-12 pts. is more likely.

[Sir Mohamed]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

Yup, though I don't expect FL-27 that close in the end.

As for the gov race, Crist is almost certainly going to win the primary with 60-40% margin, though he'd be lucky not to lose the GE by more than 8 pts.

[Sir Mohamed]

Charlie Crist appears to believe that the year is 2000.

So he gets within 537 votes?

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, Crist may be well-meaning, the dude just has terrible political instincts. He already proved this over a decade ago when he ran for senate as Indy and perhaps gave the seat to Rubio. And Scott may have been beatable in 2014 and he screwed it up. Now he apparently made a poor lt. gov. choice, although I don't believe it will matter much. Lt. gov. candidates hardly matter, though this one doesn't even meet the "do no harm" requirement. I dunno why Crist even jumped back into this race instead of having a good time in the House. He just as horrible political instincts. This election will for sure end his career and it may be better that way.

FL-Dems just continue embarrass themselves here. Unfortunately, the alternative to Crist in this primary was flawed as well.

The race is Safe R.

[Sir Mohamed]

I am not talking to Rs on this forum I know where they stand this is the same Sir Muhammad that overpredicted FL in 2020 and now he's a DeSantis supporter, Lol you can look at his prediction he has FL colored D in 2020

We don't need FL but I put it on my map like OH, NC and AL, TX and sD in case we won it because you can't update your map on EDay

But, Sir Muhammad is a D not an R that's why I critique him

No your EDay map don't have to accurate some users like Sir Muhammad and Progressive Moderate think they get brownie pts for making an accurate map no you don't it's scored but I rather lose pts of overpredicted not underpredicted

I'm a DeSantis apologist, not a supporter. Very important distinction