Florida 2022 Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But, Athasia Pittsburgh have Tim Ryan, BEASLEY and Stephanie Murphy winning, NOT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio is safe, even if CRIST wins, Stephanie Murphy is gonna lose, be it we have had zero polls from any states unless a Quinnepiac University polls shows DeSantis losing its Safe R.

In Prez midterms their party performance is based on Prez Approvals, in Trump midterm it didn't matter and Biden is only at 51/49 Approvals enough to carry WI, PA and MI

Not, FL, OH and IA.

But, we will find out soon how CRIST will do

THE BEST STATE IN A QUINNEPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL WILL BE PA, SHAPIRO AND FETTERMAN ARE ABOVE 50 PERCENT And NH Hassan is at 50 now and Molly Kelly is looking to run for Gov and we can have 3 D famales

QU PROBABLY HAS DEWINE AT 60 HE WILL WIN, Whaley will lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to wait til we see polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every Gov except Laura Kelly and Chris Sununu who can lose can lose to Molly Kelly whom almost lost to her in 2018 are above 50% and Make or DeWine only s 60% and Wolf which is an open seat is at 53% and so is Evers, and so is Kemp DUE TO COVID, GOVS JUST LIKE PREZ DONT LOSE WITH 53% APPROVALS

DeSantis is at 53%, Covid has made Govs ENTRENCHED, just like Whitmer

Deming's like Beasley would lose, CRIST is the strongest but DeSantis is at 53%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSabtis is gonna do poorly against Crist with Afro Americans, he only reaches out to Latinos

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSabtis is gonna do poorly against Crist with Afro Americans, he only reaches out to Latinos

Dude you just said he was gonna win, and now you’re back to the “he’s gonna lose because of muh Afro Americans.”

Pick a side.

He is far from where Mike DeWine and Biden are he is only barely at 50% Approvals, DeWine have a relationship with Afro Americans unlike DeSantis, that's why Trump and DeWine performed so well in Mahoning County. Biden and DeWine are at 60% Approvals unlike Josh MANDEL or DeSantis whom I believe is gonna lose.

Crist is our best chance at winning. All the Ds on this Forum wrongly predicted Biden to win FL, I am optimistic


I can change my mind until the user Predictions and even then it's not set in stone until ,500 days from now.

D's have to expand the battleground to win the H

Sir Mohammed wrongly predicted FL going Biden on his user map too


I will make FL Gov go D, OH Senate go D and NC Senate go D, and I am gonna make Jewel Kelly D in MO as well as WARNOCK D, all Black

Rs are targeting Whitmer and she is barely at 50% but the state Reelected Granholm and she will be Reelected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Dude if the Economy stays slow like it is now DeSANTIS will win, in 500 days Covid will be over and we won't have to wait til 2024 to get Recovery.

It's already over gradually

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What, the Economy has something to do with Everything, Biden said he expect the Economy to grow and boom next yr, if Covid is Eradicated, the D's chances only improve, beyond, what we have now

Trump got 46% because we had a Trump Recession, that's why he lost

There were three polls in FL 52/42, 48%/48 and 53/47 all of them can be overcome in 500 days, if Rs can target blue states we can target red states

You don't want to talk about the Economy because you don't want to admit that DeSantis will lose


Again DeSantis is not as popular among minority groups as DeWine, that's why Biden isn't inviting DeSantis into WH, bit he has invited DeWine who will WIN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist is dominating the primary, one of them need to take on Rubio and Fried has the best chance to defeat Rubio, because Crist is the best known to FL he was T Gov before

Crist 53/30%


Biden is gonna probably the Fried after she loses the primary the take on Rubio

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are still 500 days out from Election day it's still early.

Inparty matches performance of an INCUMBENT Prez and Biden is way ahead of 46% Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Image Link

Fried can't win, she's gonna choke hard. She doesn't stand for anything except being opposed to DeSantis, she couldn't even stand for the $15 Minimum wage. If she's the best we got then the Florida Democrats should just hand this race to DeSantis and save their breath for 2024 and 2026. DeSantis will fry Fried.

The announcement was a teaser for an announcement:

https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1392476334690078720?s=20

This ad is cringeworthy and reeks of the #Resistance, reminds me of Biden's ads in September and October where I live. 0 substance. It keeps talking about her record but doesn't tell us anything about it. Does she even have a record?

Nothing but soulless platitudes and appeals to "electability" which were probably bogus in the first place.


IMHO Val Demings and John Morgan are the two best candidates to take on DeSantis.

,

The Election is in 500 days the last polls that were polled were DeSANTIS and Rubio up by six, pts, that's not a landslide

The only person that are safe are Reynolds and DeWine whom are close to , 59 percent Approvals


It's still a VBM Election you can make the ballot at Post Offices not drop boxes, D's need some Red states to keep the H

Kelly is gonna win in red state KS, the reason why we can win FL Afro Americans dominate the state, and Biden in some polls are at 59 percent. Our D states are more safe because Biden is over 50% not 46% if Biden was like Trump, we would be losing MI, WI and PA

Don't criticize me for changing my mind we don't have user Predictions and I will make a dream map too like I always do

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls show that DeSantis is a lock 🔒 for Reelection, there's nothing more to say about the Senate or Gov races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fried looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Demings looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Crist looks into running: "He's ruining (Whatevers left of) his political career"

Let's just cut the middle-man and say no FL Dem will win next year and its a foolish exercise determining who stands a "better chance". As far as I'm concerned, the best that Dems can hope for here is 47% and/or a 3 point loss.

Yeah, this is kinda where I've landed at this point. As I said before somewhere in the 9 pages of this thread, it's highly unlikely that any of these Democratic candidates would be able to beat DeSantis next year anyway, so it just doesn't feel worth it to invest much - if any - hope into this race &/or any of its contenders. All that being said, though, I think I've all-but-reached the conclusion that I'll end up voting for Fried when the primary comes around. For starters, I wouldn't be so quick to argue as some have that her winning in 2018 was a fluke, unless that entails DeSantis' & Scott's wins having also been flukes: she overperformed the top-of-the-ticket all across the state (at the same time that Sean Shaw for AG & Jeremy Ring for CFO were badly underperforming) & really managed to stand out in a way that you usually just don't see in a Democratic candidate for a down-ballot row office like Ag. Commissioner; she also had an organizing field staff that was independent of the chronically incompetent FDP (though they obviously worked together when necessary), & she's an SFL candidate in a time that Democratic statewide races have mostly been falling short here in recent years. Basically, I think she's good enough at message discipline, coalition-building, & campaign resource-allocation that even though we're very likely to lose anyway, that doesn't mean we shouldn't still try to at least give it our best shot. Ya never know, after all.

All of which is to say that while both Crist & Demings are basically guaranteed to lose a general, I think Fried has a chance, albeit not much of a better one. In any event, knowing this state, the FDP will find a way to manage to blow it in the end.

Every INCUMBENT Gov is above 50% due to Covid is above 50% that's why Rs will fail against D Govs in WI, PA and MI

Biden is only at 51/49% Approvals not 60% Approvals, enough to replicate the 303 map in the Senate, D's need to target some red states as wave insurence for the H, we haven't seen any polls but if DeSantis is plus ten and Trump won FL by 3 than they won't get very far

Plus most of the S is getting rid of 300 Unemployment benefits checques

Manchin already said that he isn't renewing it next time and Tester too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Election is 17 mnths away, this race isn't over by a long shot it will eventually narrow, with Bidens approvals the D's can win a red state OH, IA, NC and FL because all of our House races are in 50 states

If the Rs can contest NH and GA, D's can contest FL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

DeSantis and is favored to win but FL always is close, let's not kid ourselves, even in that AZ poll that has Kelly ahead by 10 that these Key races arent gonna be 10 pts it will be within margin of error, even MI, WI and PA

Due to fact Minority groups are understated in polls, Afro Americans aren't voting for DeSANTIS, there are females and Arabs in many of these states that aren't voting R


The only Gov that will win by double digits is DeWine all groups like DeWine, but the Sen race was within margin of error

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is a low tax state, it doesn't have state income taxes, as Gov Crist as an R didn't raise taxes, Fried wasn't Gov and voters arent assured that she won't raise property or sales taxes, that's why Crist will win primary
Gillium lost as a Socialisic Afro American whom might raise property and sakes taxes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still likely R. She’d do worse than Crist in a general and honestly turns AGCom into a likely R pickup.

To our R users, Rs are -9 on R friendly QU poll Generic ballot test that pushed Chris Christie in 2009/13 to NJ Gov

We didn't win 33H seats in 2017 we won them in 2018 it's still 500 days not 180 days til Election

Rs can lose 1 OH, FL or IAGov we won them in 2008/12/18

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am donating to Whaley, DeSantis is up by 10pts

FL has no state income taxes and that's why Gwen Graham declined to run

The reason why DeSantis will win is because the tourism industry is gonna be up and running again

Grayson or Deming's probably will lose, we won't sweep Rs, we have a better chance in OH, NC, IA 53/54/55

They're all wave insurence seats but IA, OH and NC are our path to 55 seats, FL is the last seat to fall and then MO for 56/57

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

By 6,000 votes in a blue year. Even if she loses the primary, I'm very confident she'd lose the agricultural commissioner race this time around.

She can run in both races?

I think both she and Crist would be fine governors, though Crist may have a better shot at winning the general. But as much as I'd like DeSantis lose and the hype evaporated, it's not likely to happen.

OH, IA, NC and FL were won in 2008/12/18, never say never, Rs are down nine on Generic ballot, it can happen in 500 days not 180 days in a big enough wave DeSantis losing. I was emailed a poll showing Alan Grayson down only 5 to Rubio

Fried or Crist can actually beat DeSANTIS, it depends on how we fair in OH, IA, NC and FL SEN races

Which are must wins now, since Sinema and Manchin just said they won't nuke the Filibuster

We have plenty of time to make our Prediction maps

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's need to focus on OH, IA and NC that's the road from 51/55 seats not FL which is 56/57 and MO and KY

OH is our 53rd seat not FL that's why I have donated to Ryan and Whaley due to Mandel

Afro Americans are the Minority in OH

Cubans and PR outnumber Blks in FL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance it's not that important of a race, DeSantis is up by 10 pts, Crist will win the primary, he was Gov already and kept taxes low and speak Spanish

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Without HR 1 passing and DeSantis and Abbott Redistricting FL and TX anyway they want DeSantis and Abbott will win by landslides

This race WOULD be completive if HR 1 passed but it's not DeSantis is gonna win, too bad
55/45  by both

D's aren't gonna win 55/56/58 seats they will win 51/53 seat OH or NC wave insurence to GA when it goes to a Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am definitely more optimistic about FL, Rs were counting on Crist not energizing the CV others, now that Fried is tied with Crist, it's whole new ballgame and Fried can pull Val over finish line with Grayson own internal poll showing a 5 poly race for Gov and Sen, well within range for us to win in 500 days.

FL and TX are vital to keeping the House

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IMHO Nikki Fried vs. Charlie Crist is a dog-and-pony show for the elite donor class.

The two frontrunners are unlikeable and have no real convictions or ideas to help the Floridian people out, only standing for not being DeSantis. It's basically Young Hillary Clinton vs. Male Hillary Clinton.

If forced to choose between these two, I'll go with Nikki Fried, but it's all still very upsetting.

I support one of these guys who I haven't crossed out. I really hope one of them gains traction:




Any one of them will have plenty of material to use luckily      

"Charlie Crist is a flip-flopper" easy instakill

"How do you expect Nikki Fried to stand up to DeSantis, she couldn't even stand up for a $15 minimum wage" again easy

Also "Nikki Fried is a good-for-nothing career politician who's had her eyes on governor's mansion for far too long. Everything she does isn't to help the average Floridian, but is only to gain name recognition for her governor's run. Don't fall for her tricks."

The D's weren't gonna win this anyways unless a major scandal breaks out with DeSantis that's what wave insurance means the opposite party can pick up a seat in an upset usually when a major scandal breaks out

Rs picked up IL but Kirk had a major strike and lost in a landslide