NC-ABC/WaPo: Biden +1/+2

[wbrocks67]

There is zero chance Biden wins nationaly by double digits. If someone beleives that really I think he doesn't understand politics much.

Dems won by +8.6 in 2018. they are running against Trump. It's not out of the question.

[Rand]

Michael Steele endorsing Biden should sew up this race for Biden in AZ, FL and NC. Obama and Biden didn't win FL and NC by huge margins in 2008/12, they won them by 1/2 points

Something the Trump-supporting straw graspers conveniently forget.

[bilaps]

There is zero chance Biden wins nationaly by double digits. If someone beleives that really I think he doesn't understand politics much.

Dems won by +8.6 in 2018. they are running against Trump. It's not out of the question.

Wanna bet?

[wbrocks67]

There is zero chance Biden wins nationaly by double digits. If someone beleives that really I think he doesn't understand politics much.

Dems won by +8.6 in 2018. they are running against Trump. It's not out of the question.

Wanna bet?

Just bc it doesn't happen doesn't mean it's out of the realm of possibility. This is an idiotic conversation.

[bilaps]

There is zero chance Biden wins nationaly by double digits. If someone beleives that really I think he doesn't understand politics much.

Dems won by +8.6 in 2018. they are running against Trump. It's not out of the question.

Wanna bet?

Just bc it doesn't happen doesn't mean it's out of the realm of possibility. This is an idiotic conversation.

No, man, if something is idiotic it's you disecting each poll like you work for a Biden campaign. Give it a rest, he's going to win.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 12-17
646 likely voters
MoE: 4.5% for likely voters

Biden 49%
Trump 48%
Jorgensen 1%
Other 0% (but some voters)
None of these 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (but some voters)
Hawkins 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

Head-to-head:
Biden 50%
Trump 48%
Other 0% (but some voters)
None of these 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (but some voters)
No opinion 1%

[Granite City]

They seem to have a Trump house effect in the sunbelt and a Biden one in the north, so why is this a bad result for Biden?

Even on a uniform swing, it's Biden +7 or 8 nationally and wouldn't the expectation be that North Carolina trends at least a little to the right?

[swf541]

We also have plenty of district polls that are reflective of a double digit race

Maybe in those districts.

For that to happen you'd need for other areas to be drifting towards Trump vs 2016 results in the same states

Yes, the rural areas, by a lot, but not by enough, hence Biden+6. I'm guessing here, could be Biden+7. After all Florida and North Carolina are high turnout states.

How

This election is going to be the rural against the urban.
Trump has completely consolidated the rural vote.

He already did that in 2016 and 2018 and you completely ignored the suburban voter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't know why people are obsessed with Biden leading only by a couple of pts in FL, NC and AZ, Obama and Biden didn't win NC and FL by but a couple of points

They were never gonna be Biden 6 pt races even the Senate was never gonna be 5

[Alben Barkley]

Looks like all swing states are super close.

North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Texas are close — you know, all states Trump NEEDS to win.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin? Not so much.

[ExSky]

Looks like all swing states are super close.

Nope. Penn/MI/Wisconsin are comfortably Biden. The only states that are neck and neck are the states that Trump won comfortably in 2016 that have become swing this cycle. Texas/GA/NC