IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[President Johnson]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-jb-pritzker-bahama-offshore-shell-company-20180313-story.html

I don't know if I could tell anyone to vote for Pritzker in the general and keep my conscience.

Shady Pritzker turns into Garbage Pritzker. He's worse than Andrew Cuomo.

If Biss doesn't get the nomination, Bruce Rauner must be reelected. Illinois needs a governor who takes on corrupt Madigan.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

- snip -

lmao, you can't respond to a post about how Biss is disingenuous and no better than Pritzker by pointing out how the things that OP accused Biss of doing are things that Pritzker also did. That's literally equating the two, which I'm pretty sure is the opposite of what you're trying to do.

If I still lived in Illinois, I'd probably vote for Biss (or maybe even Kennedy if he didn't strike me as so feckless) over Pritzker, but I wouldn't do it with any sort of illusion that the dude was totally honest or not an opportunist.

Thank god though that I don't live in that state any more though. Watching the state party bend over backwards to give the preliminary nod to Pritzker was pretty icky.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-jb-pritzker-bahama-offshore-shell-company-20180313-story.html

I don't know if I could tell anyone to vote for Pritzker in the general and keep my conscience.

Shady Pritzker turns into Garbage Pritzker. He's worse than Andrew Cuomo.

If Biss doesn't get the nomination, Bruce Rauner must be reelected. Illinois needs a governor who takes on corrupt Madigan.

Madigan wears Rauner's balls as cuff links. Even if Rauner wins reelection there is no way he win enough political capital to actually do anything against Madigan. Madigan's going to rule the state no matter who wins.

[MAINEiac4434]

This Jeanne Ives ad makes Rainer sound pretty good!

https://youtu.be/AIFpR-zFKLU

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

- snip -

lmao, you can't respond to a post about how Biss is disingenuous and no better than Pritzker by pointing out how the things that OP accused Biss of doing are things that Pritzker also did. That's literally equating the two, which I'm pretty sure is the opposite of what you're trying to do.

Not really. I basically took hundreds of words to say what Blair said in a sentence.

IMO Biss is a typical politician (oppotunstic, shameless, backstabbing) whilst Pritzker seems like a crooked politician. There’s a distinction.

[TJ in Oregon]

Think of the stimulus that would be generated by a Rauner vs. Pritzker campaign! Investing millions in the Illinois economy!

[BL53931]

Does Pritzker have a  first and middle name?  It just seems strange to have a candidate with 'JB' and then his last name.

[Donerail]

Does Pritzker have a  first and middle name?  It just seems strange to have a candidate with 'JB' and then his last name.

Jay Robert (and so Jay Bob, and so JB)

[Grassroots]

My lord, if Illinois democrats pick Pritzker I will lose all hope in them.

At least they could be sane and pick someone that isn't a rich, corrupt, douchebag.

At least they could pick someone like Daniel Biss or Chris Kennedy, people who actually could win against Bruce Rauner.

If they pick Pritzker, its just another reason why we republicans will once again sweep the governors seat here.

[BundouYMB]

My lord, if Illinois democrats pick Pritzker I will lose all hope in them.

At least they could be sane and pick someone that isn't a rich, corrupt, douchebag.

At least they could pick someone like Daniel Biss or Chris Kennedy, people who actually could win against Bruce Rauner.

If they pick Pritzker, its just another reason why we republicans will once again sweep the governors seat here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_gubernatorial_election,_2018#Polling_3

[VPH]

Hoping Kennedy pulls off an upset win!

[kph14]

There are some anecdotal reports that Democratic turnout among early voters is significantly up in Downstate Illinois.
http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2018-03-18/tom-kacich-democratic-early-voting-turnout-all-over.html

In suburban Cook County (outside Chicago) early turnout as of yesterday is also pretty solid:

2018: 83453 votes cast
2016: 98281 votes cast
2014: 34034 votes cast
(all primaries)
(source: https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/service/early-voting-totals

[Oryxslayer]

There are some anecdotal reports that Democratic turnout among early voters is significantly up in Downstate Illinois.
http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2018-03-18/tom-kacich-democratic-early-voting-turnout-all-over.html

I'll post some maps tomorrow, but dems have a bunch of hidden southern primary strength in the Deep Downstate south around IL-12. Some of it is consistent voters, but a lot of it is probably ancestral Dems that are a common occurrence in this region across state line. For reference, dems barely lost Il-12 in the primary in 2014, despite only making up a third of the primary electorate.

[Littlefinger]

New D Primary Poll

Pritzker 32%, Kennedy 26%, Biss 22%, 16% Undecided

Me thinks no one knows who will win until late Tuesday night or after.

https://twitter.com/MaryAnnAhernNBC/status/975429695268425734

[junior chįmp]

New D Primary Poll

Pritzker 32%, Kennedy 26%, Biss 22%, 16% Undecided

Me thinks no one knows who will win until late Tuesday night or after.

https://twitter.com/MaryAnnAhernNBC/status/975429695268425734

Pritzker has spent $70 million just in the primary alone and he might not win lol

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hoping Kennedy pulls off an upset win!

[Canis]

Please let Biss win!

[Blair]

God if Kennedy wins it will be hilarious to see him not just stumble through the general, but then watch him have to try and be Governor for the next 4 years.

I know Pritzker is spending millions, but I feel it could partly be because he's never held state office (or even any office), and his major selling point has been 'I'm rich, everyone in the state endorsed me''. I feel even if the stuff about  Blagojevich didn't come out he'd still be struggling because he really doesn't have anything to sell.

FWIW both Biss and Kennedy have gained troubling niches in the race- Kennedy seems to have done some work reaching out to the African-American community, and the anti-Rahm groups (A 2015 mayor v 2018 primary map would be interesting) and Biss has got the progressive groups around him. If there's a high turnout from newly engaged/political folks I feel they'd move to Biss.

Also I've always wondered how many old info 60+ primary voters who will vote for Kennedy based on being Bobby's son alone.

[Oryxslayer]

God if Kennedy wins it will be hilarious to see him not just stumble through the general, but then watch him have to try and be Governor for the next 4 years.

I know Pritzker is spending millions, but I feel it could partly be because he's never held state office (or even any office), and his major selling point has been 'I'm rich, everyone in the state endorsed me''. I feel even if the stuff about  Blagojevich didn't come out he'd still be struggling because he really doesn't have anything to sell.

FWIW both Biss and Kennedy have gained troubling niches in the race- Kennedy seems to have done some work reaching out to the African-American community, and the anti-Rahm groups (A 2015 mayor v 2018 primary map would be interesting) and Biss has got the progressive groups around him. If there's a high turnout from newly engaged/political folks I feel they'd move to Biss.

Also I've always wondered how many old info 60+ primary voters who will vote for Kennedy based on being Bobby's son alone.

This is Pritzker's biggest selling point, the fact that he is a huge self-funder. Dem's probably won't need to drop any money on the gov race if he is their candidate, since it will be all Pritzker's money. That money can go to Illinois house/Senate races or other competitive governor races depending on the source.

This is the only reason why I am *tentatively* supporting him, since if every candidate is going to be a corrupt puppet of Madigan/sidelined republican, its best to get a candidate that gives the dems a positive externality. 

[Gass3268]

New D Primary Poll

Pritzker 32%, Kennedy 26%, Biss 22%, 16% Undecided

Me thinks no one knows who will win until late Tuesday night or after.

https://twitter.com/MaryAnnAhernNBC/status/975429695268425734

Sounds like this is from a fake polling firm.

That being said, it's kinda surprising that a real firm hasn't polled here.

[Pollster]

Here is a piece about "Victory Research" - the polling firm reportedly behind this poll.

[Illiniwek]

New D Primary Poll

Pritzker 32%, Kennedy 26%, Biss 22%, 16% Undecided

Me thinks no one knows who will win until late Tuesday night or after.

https://twitter.com/MaryAnnAhernNBC/status/975429695268425734

Me thinks we know who will win, just not by how much and who will be #2.

[Oryxslayer]

So here are my IL maps. For the purposes of this analysis, we will only discuss the gubernatorial primary, congressional primary analysis will be handled in its thread.

 First off, we see that the distribution of the primary electorate for both parties in 2016, the more comparable election, has a different map than the final one. The share of the electorate was mostly the same as the final result 59/41 D/R in November and 58.5/41.5 in March. However, the distribution was not. The Republican vote is stronger in the suburbs than in the final election, and the democrats have a bunch of soft voters in the deep south of downstate. This trend is still visible in the 2014 election where  dissatisfaction with Pat Quinn, a close R primary, and the building 2014 wave, all resulted in a 2:1 R vote advantage in a Safe D state. Rauner racked up huge margins in the collar counties, and the margins were well around 90% of the voters going R. Meanwhile, in the Quad Cities and the Deep south, dems didn't get blown out of the water and instead even won some solid R counties.

The geography of the gubernatorial primary is therefore different between the parties, but we already knew that. The Dem primary vote is incredibly Chicago centered, and the Rep vote is perhaps balanced between the Collars and Downstate.

The democratic party hasn't really broken down along regional lines, so we really don't know how the various regions will vote. Inside Cook, everything really makes sense with these lines: Pritzker getting the machine and endorsement types, Bliss those disaffected with said machine and progressives, Kennedy the AA voters and those that don't like the other two. Beyond Cook though it becomes more of a question. Biss will probably end up with the university areas like Jackson county,  and Kennedy probably wins the AA heavy areas outside Chicago like Champlain, St. Clair, and Alexander. The rest is unknown. The Collar counties one would assume to probably back Pritzker, but the dem electorate there is much more city-centered in places like Joliet, Aurora, and Elgin - rather than moderate suburban types. Biss does have a base in the north suburbs after all. In 2016, all of the Collar except Lake broke for Sanders. An IL poster is probably wanted here.

The Republican primary is much more simple. Rauner's base is the Collar, and he will probably loose much of downstate to Ives. The divide between Insider and Outsider has been hammered in this campaign, and the Republican base will no doubt divide itself along those lines. Rauner also probably picks up some of the suburbs in the south around places like Peoria, in a similar fashion to how Gillespie ended  up barely winning his primary in 2017. The comparison to Gillespie is even more relevant, since Ives has a base in suburban DuPage just like Stewart had a base in Prince William county. The big question here for Republican's is turnout, and whether the collar advantage is still as strong as it has in the past. If the Collar moderates are now voting in the Democratic primary rather than the republican one out of disgust with Trump and the Party, then Rauner has lost votes. If Downstate is unenthusiastic, then Ives has no chance.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Who is going to win the IL gov primaries?

[Oryxslayer]

Who is going to win the IL gov primaries?

better question what does everyone think will be the more exciting governors race: Republicans or Democrats? This could be because the race ends up close, or is an upset, or something like that.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Who is going to win the IL gov primaries?

better question what does everyone think will be the more exciting governors race: Republicans or Democrats? This could be because the race ends up close, or is an upset, or something like that.

Well, I want to know cuz I get extra credit if i predict them right