538 Model Megathread

[Devout Centrist]

Didn't Nate Silver say Hillary had a >99% chance of winning Michigan in the primaries?

The model he built did. Rare events happen in state polling, especially in the primaries. Out of 58 primary contests, his model called 52. The other 6 usually didn't have solid polling or, like Democrats Abroad, were simply averaged out because of the lack of information on the electorate.

Basically, you're using one wrong answer to call Nate an idiot. Should we say he's an idiot for calling Indiana wrong in 2008?

Finally, it should be noted, as Nate noted himself, that 80% is not a sure thing. There is still a significant chance Trump could win.

[Devout Centrist]

Didn't Nate Silver say Hillary had a >99% chance of winning Michigan in the primaries?

The model he built did. Rare events happen in state polling, especially in the primaries. Out of 58 primary contests, his model called 52. The other 6 usually didn't have solid polling or, like Democrats Abroad, were simply averaged out because of the lack of information on the electorate.

Basically, you're using one wrong answer to call Nate an idiot. Should we say he's an idiot for calling Indiana wrong in 2008?

Finally, it should be noted, as Nate noted himself, that 80% is not a sure thing. There is still a significant chance Trump could win.

The worst part with Nate Silver and the 2016 primary is that he 1) continued to construct a "with endorsements" model for R's months after it had been proved useless, and 2) didn't integrate any sort of fundamentals into his models - there was no boost to Cruz in evangelical states, no boost to Sanders in white-dominated states, etc. It was literally just RCP with a boost to whoever was leading in national polls and/or endorsements. A five year old could have recreated his model.

Point 1 is obvious, but point 2 is patently false. Silver created a demographic model that gave Sandersan edge in solidly white states and Cruz a boost in states with more evangelicals. His model projected a close race in Michigan, yet the polls showed otherwise. I think the demographics mode put Michigan at either +2 Clinton or +2 Sanders.

[Devout Centrist]

Didn't Nate Silver say Hillary had a >99% chance of winning Michigan in the primaries?

The model he built did. Rare events happen in state polling, especially in the primaries. Out of 58 primary contests, his model called 52. The other 6 usually didn't have solid polling or, like Democrats Abroad, were simply averaged out because of the lack of information on the electorate.

Basically, you're using one wrong answer to call Nate an idiot. Should we say he's an idiot for calling Indiana wrong in 2008?

Finally, it should be noted, as Nate noted himself, that 80% is not a sure thing. There is still a significant chance Trump could win.

The worst part with Nate Silver and the 2016 primary is that he 1) continued to construct a "with endorsements" model for R's months after it had been proved useless, and 2) didn't integrate any sort of fundamentals into his models - there was no boost to Cruz in evangelical states, no boost to Sanders in white-dominated states, etc. It was literally just RCP with a boost to whoever was leading in national polls and/or endorsements. A five year old could have recreated his model.

Point 1 is obvious, but point 2 is patently false. Silver created a demographic model that gave Sandersan edge in solidly white states and Cruz a boost in states with more evangelicals. His model projected a close race in Michigan, yet the polls showed otherwise. I think the demographics mode put Michigan at either +2 Clinton or +2 Sanders.

Yeah, but those were buried in various articles. What he actually considered his official prediction was the polls plus and polls only models which had zero demographic considerations.

It should have been included in the model, I agree.

[Devout Centrist]

It's getting really close in the new now-cast model. Trump is up to a 46% chance to win. (NH goes to Trump. I'm sure nobody is going to whine about that.)

Clinton 274
Trump 264

If the election was held today.

If.

[Devout Centrist]

The Now Model has gone coo coo for Clinton Puffs, giving HRC a 91.5% chance to win the election with all swing states and some lean states going D.

It's called a Now Cast for a reason.

[Devout Centrist]

South Carolina back to lean R on the nowcast. That was fun while it lasted.

Back to lean D.

[Devout Centrist]

It was a simple mistake. I pointed it out on their Facebook page and it was promptly fixed.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If the Giants win the World Series, though, then Nate is a confirmed hack fraud.

[Devout Centrist]

That AP/GFK poll caused Clinton to spike 2 points in the Nowcast, 1.7 points in polls-only and 1.4 points in polls plus

They recorded that poll as Clinton 51, Trump 37, Johnson 6

That's the sign of a model that's way too sensitive.

No, it just reversed the 'tightening' people here were having mini heart attacks about this morning.

[Devout Centrist]

That AP/GFK poll caused Clinton to spike 2 points in the Nowcast, 1.7 points in polls-only and 1.4 points in polls plus

They recorded that poll as Clinton 51, Trump 37, Johnson 6

That's the sign of a model that's way too sensitive.

No, it just reversed the 'tightening' people here were having mini heart attacks about this morning.

That's part of my point. It overreacted to the polls showing a tightening and now it's overreacting to a single poll showing a widening.

Well Nate has a huge hard on for Selzer, so I think that's what started this whole mess.

[Devout Centrist]

Nowcast has NV FL NC OH IA all leaning Trump.  Some by the narrowest of margins of course.

Input garbage, output garbage. Only Nate could have his model claim Trump's leading NV and then release an article about how Clinton is likely to exceed her already positive NV polls.

Sabato may be more accurate this time.

[Devout Centrist]

Lol happy go lucky Larry Sabato may be better than Nate Silver.

[Devout Centrist]

Sad News from Texas

[Devout Centrist]

RIP Nate Silver

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.theonion.com/article/nate-silver-gunned-down-attempting-cross-mexican-b-54595

Sad News from Texas

[Devout Centrist]

Is this supposed to be some kind of humble brag? Good grief.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Nate's losing it.

[Devout Centrist]

Nate is under a lot of pressure.  He went 51 for 51 four years ago, and now his model is giving him numbers he know don't add up, and he's handcuffed.

Someone explain to me why A rate pollsters are 'adjusted' more than Remington or Survey Monkey? Even ARG and Zubat Zogby get adjusted less.

[Devout Centrist]

To be fair, that Huffo piece was garbage.  Nate silver should be judged on the accuracy of his model post election. That complaining about unskewing was bogus. Without adjustment and weighting, all models will basically look like the rcp average

But his adjustments, unlike his weighting, seems nonsensical.

[Devout Centrist]

Nate flipped Nevada, NC, and Florida all to Clinton.

Fat lady is onstage, waiting for her cue.