Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)

[The Other Castro]

Why not just include all 16 candidates and expand the debate to 4 hours, with only a 5 minute break each hour for commercials in between ?

That would mean slightly more than 10 minutes talking time for each candidate.

Because nobody besides us, and probably not most of us, would watch a four hour debate. Plus, candidates would probably have to use the bathroom. Some of the older ones probably wouldn't be able to stand for four hours anyway.

[The Other Castro]

Looks like Kasich might be in after all. All he needs to do is lead Perry by 1 in the next poll and he'll get the 10th spot.

[The Other Castro]

I still think we will see 5 entirely new polls before the debate. Monmouith has confirmed they will do one and yesterday Chuck Todd said NBC will have a new one out in a couple weeks. CNN tends to poll at the end of the month so that is 3. I suspect that FOX would want their own poll to be one of the five polls so that would be 4. So you just need one more. Quinnipiac is due for a poll, they havent done one since May and McClatchy/Marist hasnt since March. And then there are other live phone pollsters that havent done any this cycle including CBS/NYT and Pew.

Where did you see that Monmouth is doing another poll?

[The Other Castro]

If we assume that Monmouth will have another poll out, and that Fox won't count PPP, the 5 most recent polls could be:

Unknown Monmouth
Unknown Quinnipiac
CNN/ORC
ABC/WashPost
FOX

If there are more, it could be that only CNN and ABC are included in the pre-debate average (or even just CNN), which is good news for Kasich and bad news for Perry as newer polls are showing Kasich ahead. Counting just CNN, ABC, and FOX so far, Kasich and Perry are tied for the 10th spot.

[The Other Castro]

Christie seems to be in danger of losing his spot to Perry. If the 5 polls are a new Fox, new Monmouth, Quinnipiac, CNN, and ABC, then there is some real risk. Perry would only need to lead by 1 in both new polls to knock Christie out (assuming Kasich maintains his new higher numbers).

[The Other Castro]

2 more polls have been confirmed:

* FOX
* Bloomberg/Selzer

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[The Other Castro]

Do we know that Bloomberg will be included in the average? I wasn't aware that they conducted national primary polls, or if they conduct live phone polling.

[The Other Castro]

Do we know that Bloomberg will be included in the average? I wasn't aware that they conducted national primary polls, or if they conduct live phone polling.

They're doing it with Selzer though, which is one of the best pollsters out there, so it probably gets included.

Anyone think Fox will adjust the results of their own poll to get Fiorina or Jindal in for race/gender reasons?

The result they would need in Fox's poll would be absurdly high, and would be met with great suspicion.

[The Other Castro]

RCP also happens to be only showing these 5 polls now, so that's convenient.

[The Other Castro]

when does fox release their ten folks?

The deadline is at 5 Eastern.