Shira
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,858
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« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2004, 05:52:20 PM » |
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"Yes, Bush will lose New Jersey but he will get more than the 40.3% mentioned above. I'd guess around 46-47% or so"
The matter of the fact is that Dem states become more Dem and Rep states become more Rep.
You can see this in western states like UT, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE as well as TX. On the other hand RI, MA, NY, CT, NJ become more and more Dem. The Deep South: GA, AL, MS, NC, SC are more or less stable with around 55%-56% to the Reps.
There are some movements: IA, WI, and MN are Dem states which are slowly moving toward the Reps. At this point MN still looks very safe for Kerry (depends on Nader)
FL, AZ, NH and VA are Rep states which are moving toward the Dems.
There is a reasonable chance that Kerry would win in NH and FL and lose IA and WI.
OH is stable around the 50:50 and totally unpredictable
My assessment/prediction is that not more then 4 or 5 states will vote differently than in 2000
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