Jan. 2023 - Rate the 2024 Senate

[GALeftist]

Lean R. I use Likely to indicate races where one side could theoretically win but I don't think it's plausible, as opposed to Safe which means that it is impossible that one side wins no matter what. However, I think it is obviously plausible that the Democrats could retain Senate control; they need 2/3 of TX-SEN, OH-SEN, and MT-SEN while not losing anything other than WV-SEN. That's a tall order, but it's not the same as, like, winning FL-SEN, which I would classify as Likely R.

[GALeftist]

This far out, I don’t know how you justify anything beyond Lean R.

Democrats have to win 2 of these 3 races in order to take the senate : MT, OH , TX . Now while you can argue MT is a tossup , OH and TX are likely R in terms of likelihood in going for the GOP even if they are Lean R in terms of margin .

Likely seems like a bit much. In 2018 OH-SEN was only about a point right of the nation; it was 10 points right in 2016 and 12 points right in 2020. Let's say Brown keeps Ohio five points right of the nation somehow; Biden winning the nation by 5 points is within the realm of possibility. Definitely optimistic but not out of the question.

With respect to Texas, Trump won it by <6 points, it's trending left, and Cruz will underperform. Again, not Likely R