Jan. 2023 - Rate the 2024 Senate

[Woody]

Title

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections

[MillennialModerate]

Any reasonable person would consider this Likely R at a minimum.

Even if Dems win the Presidency… the most they’d win it by is what, 5 popular vote points? I can’t see Manchin or Tester beating the margins in their states in a Presidential cycle. In a midterm I’d pick them both. But no pick ups for Dems - and at least 2 maybe 3 loses. That doesn’t even touch the dilemma in the desert so

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Any reasonable person would consider this Likely R at a minimum.

Even if Dems win the Presidency… the most they’d win it by is what, 5 popular vote points? I can’t see Manchin or Tester beating the margins in their states in a Presidential cycle. In a midterm I’d pick them both. But no pick ups for Dems - and at least 2 maybe 3 loses. That doesn’t even touch the dilemma in the desert so

You know Brown can win and Tester because Beshear is up by 9 pts , DeWine isn't on the Ballot it's two yrs till Edays

[Spectator]

Likely Republican. Manchin is obviously a goner no matter what barring Trump endorsing him for some reason. Brown is probably DOA too barring someone worse than JD Vance being his opponent. It comes down to Tester holding on and the Democrat beating Cruz in Texas while holding onto every other seat, Arizona and Nevada being the trickiest.

MT: Lean R
TX: Tossup
AZ: Tossup
NV: Lean D
MI: Lean D
WI: Lean D

Democrats need to sweep the above to retain the Senate 50-50.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown and Tester are gonna win if Beshear is up 9 pts yeah if Cruz is so vulnerable then Beto or Colin Allred would jump into race it's Safe R, Beto loss due to he was for Assault weapons ban

Tier 1 OH, AZ, PA, MT, WV
Tier 2 FL and MO
Tier 3 TX

Casey is vulnerable we saw a poll down by 5 to Mastriano he isn't gonna win this time by Shapiro numbers for sure despite what ratings they have, McCormick is a good candidate and he was leading Fetterman but Casey is better than Fetterman D's didged one in 22

That's why I have PA as a vulnerable seat

But again we must wait for the Inspection General report they said Hillary was fine and she wasn't she loss narrowly

My maps aren't ratings maps anyways just like I will make KY and MS Lean D it's in case D's win but I won't donate until we get the Docugate over with

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R

Dems have a few vulnerable seats and almost no realistic pickups.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R

Dems have a few vulnerable seats and almost no realistic pickups.

Do you know what Kevin McCarthy said that Ds can realistic keep the S OH and MO swapping out MT, WVA and Sinema and Rs can keep a 5 seat H RS have 0 pickups in 26 and COLLINS is DOA Jared Golden will remind voters she Filibuster Voting Rights and then we can still win a Filibuster proof Trifecta I'm 24/26

RS have a favorite chance of keepings a 4 seat majority mi nus Santos of course H and D's eeking out OH, AZ and MO did you know MO was only 3 pts between Kander and Blunt in 2016 we weren't blown out every map is different

[GALeftist]

Lean R. I use Likely to indicate races where one side could theoretically win but I don't think it's plausible, as opposed to Safe which means that it is impossible that one side wins no matter what. However, I think it is obviously plausible that the Democrats could retain Senate control; they need 2/3 of TX-SEN, OH-SEN, and MT-SEN while not losing anything other than WV-SEN. That's a tall order, but it's not the same as, like, winning FL-SEN, which I would classify as Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R. I use Likely to indicate races where one side could theoretically win but I don't think it's plausible, as opposed to Safe which means that it is impossible that one side wins no matter what. However, I think it is obviously plausible that the Democrats could retain Senate control; they need 2/3 of TX-SEN, OH-SEN, and MT-SEN while not losing anything other than WV-SEN. That's a tall order, but it's not the same as, like, winning FL-SEN, which I would classify as Likely R.

Why waste your Donation on FL.if Deming's couldn't win it's Kunce, Brown and Gallego and Casey we should donate to Jason Kander was within 3 pts of Blunt in 2016 but as I said wait till the FBI report on Docugate by Jan 24 it's barely Feb 23 it's too early but I can see only Santos losing as I said before and Rs after Docugate have a narrow H majority and D's win AZ, OH and MO Sen and Biden get reelected split voting like Beshear is leading 9 pts and Presley is down 4

It's not a must win we win the H in 24 because RS have 0 pickups in 26 and Collins is vulnerable and we can win H back in 24/26

Kunce can defeat Hawley because he is a Vet like Gallego and Mark Kelly, it doesn't matter how much we got blown out in MO why is Beshear leading by 9 and Rand Paul won 60/40, every map is different, outside 279 it's called wave insurance anyways because it only takes 270 to win

[Ferguson97]

This far out, I don’t know how you justify anything beyond Lean R.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This far out, I don’t know how you justify anything beyond Lean R.

Democrats have to win 2 of these 3 races in order to take the senate : MT, OH , TX . Now while you can argue MT is a tossup , OH and TX are likely R in terms of likelihood in going for the GOP even if they are Lean R in terms of margin .

[S019]

Likely R

NJ-Likely D
PA-Lean/Likely D
MI-Lean D
WI-Tossup
NV-Tossup
AZ-Tossup
TX-Tossup
FL-Lean R (Tipping Pt)
MT-Lean R
OH-Likely R
WV-Safe R

Democrats hopes basically rest on sweeping the tossups and winning a Lean R state. To put this into perspective, this is the same type of CW that existed going into the 2008 election (where it was obvious the tipping point state was going to be significantly left of neutral).

[GALeftist]

This far out, I don’t know how you justify anything beyond Lean R.

Democrats have to win 2 of these 3 races in order to take the senate : MT, OH , TX . Now while you can argue MT is a tossup , OH and TX are likely R in terms of likelihood in going for the GOP even if they are Lean R in terms of margin .

Likely seems like a bit much. In 2018 OH-SEN was only about a point right of the nation; it was 10 points right in 2016 and 12 points right in 2020. Let's say Brown keeps Ohio five points right of the nation somehow; Biden winning the nation by 5 points is within the realm of possibility. Definitely optimistic but not out of the question.

With respect to Texas, Trump won it by <6 points, it's trending left, and Cruz will underperform. Again, not Likely R

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean R, sadly. However, that's not all that bad because before the 2022 midterms I would have said likely or even safe R.

If Barnes could have won that would have amounted to so much...

[OSR stands with Israel]

This far out, I don’t know how you justify anything beyond Lean R.

Democrats have to win 2 of these 3 races in order to take the senate : MT, OH , TX . Now while you can argue MT is a tossup , OH and TX are likely R in terms of likelihood in going for the GOP even if they are Lean R in terms of margin .

Likely seems like a bit much. In 2018 OH-SEN was only about a point right of the nation; it was 10 points right in 2016 and 12 points right in 2020. Let's say Brown keeps Ohio five points right of the nation somehow; Biden winning the nation by 5 points is within the realm of possibility. Definitely optimistic but not out of the question.

With respect to Texas, Trump won it by <6 points, it's trending left, and Cruz will underperform. Again, not Likely R

Texas isn’t trending anywhere near as democratic as this forum thinks . It still voted 10 points to the right of the nation in 2020 so the democrats need at least a 2008 style win to win that Texas senate seat and that style win probably still won’t be enough to win Texas presidentially .

[Spectator]

This far out, I don’t know how you justify anything beyond Lean R.

Democrats have to win 2 of these 3 races in order to take the senate : MT, OH , TX . Now while you can argue MT is a tossup , OH and TX are likely R in terms of likelihood in going for the GOP even if they are Lean R in terms of margin .

Likely seems like a bit much. In 2018 OH-SEN was only about a point right of the nation; it was 10 points right in 2016 and 12 points right in 2020. Let's say Brown keeps Ohio five points right of the nation somehow; Biden winning the nation by 5 points is within the realm of possibility. Definitely optimistic but not out of the question.

With respect to Texas, Trump won it by <6 points, it's trending left, and Cruz will underperform. Again, not Likely R

Texas isn’t trending anywhere near as democratic as this forum thinks . It still voted 10 points to the right of the nation in 2020 so the democrats need at least a 2008 style win to win that Texas senate seat and that style win probably still won’t be enough to win Texas presidentially .

Texas voted only 8 points to the right in the midterm. I think your fetishization with safe red Texas is clouding your judgment. Cruz is a lot more vulnerable against the right challenger than you think.

[TML]

Let me remind everyone that back in January 2019, the consensus on this forum was that Republicans were favored to retain the Senate in 2020, albeit not heavily. That consensus lasted until about 2Q2020, after which Democrats were considered the favorites to flip the Senate (which is what actually transpired, although it took overtime for that to actually happen). While conventional wisdom suggests that Republicans are favored to retake the Senate in 2024, never underestimate the possibility of the actual result differing considerably from the consensus at this point.

[S019]

Let me remind everyone that back in January 2019, the consensus on this forum was that Republicans were favored to retain the Senate in 2020, albeit not heavily. That consensus lasted until about 2Q2020, after which Democrats were considered the favorites to flip the Senate (which is what actually transpired, although it took overtime for that to actually happen). While conventional wisdom suggests that Republicans are favored to retake the Senate in 2024, never underestimate the possibility of the actual result differing considerably from the consensus at this point.

I mean this is a bit dishonest, Isakson didn't announce his resignation until late August 2019 which ultimately created the open seat that decided control. So the consensus in January 2019 was right if you factor in only the seats expected to be up, at that time.

[TwinGeeks99]

I would have to say Lean R, closer to Likely than Tilt. Barring any new vacancies in swing states (which is what happened mind you in Georgia four years ago that enabled the Democrats to win the Senate) the map is objectively a very brutal one for Democrats, especially with it being a presidential year. Assuming Manchin isn't able to overcome West Virginia's partisan lean, they would then need to win three out of four of Arizona, Montana, Ohio, and Texas to hold on to their majority. With Florida moving away from the Democrats and every other potential Republican target too red, they really should just go all in on trying to oust Cruz in Texas and focus on defending incumbents and open seats everywhere else.

[S019]

I would have to say Lean R, closer to Likely than Tilt. Barring any new vacancies in swing states (which is what happened mind you in Georgia four years ago that enabled the Democrats to win the Senate) the map is objectively a very brutal one for Democrats, especially with it being a presidential year. Assuming Manchin isn't able to overcome West Virginia's partisan lean, they would then need to win three out of four of Arizona, Montana, Ohio, and Texas to hold on to their majority. With Florida moving away from the Democrats and every other potential Republican target too red, they really should just go all in on trying to oust Cruz in Texas and focus on defending incumbents and open seats everywhere else.

I really don't get this idea that Democrats are way more likely to lose Florida than Ohio or Montana. Florida still did vote R+3 in 2020 while OH voted R+8 and MT voted like R+16. I mean sure incumbency matters, but Scott is not a particularly strong incumbent at all and that is still a large partisan lean gap and with OH Republicans looking poised to nominate a competent candidate, the path in Ohio looks incredibly daunting.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R

Beshear is leading by 9% Cook said wait for polls when you see incumbent losing but we have Docugate Biden was at 50/47 but now he is back to 45/50% we really need to wait til we get state by state polls by Emerson they were accurate on Wzi, OH, NC and GA but inaccurate on NV and that won't happen til next yr anyways

Casey is vulnerable too because the poll we saw had him losing by 5 to Mastriano but he is going against McCormick not Oz and Eerie Country went right during 2016, he isn't winning by Shapiro numbers like he always do

OH, PA, MT, AZ and WV are vulnerable, as I said I won't donate to Act Blue until Docugate is over I donated to Ryan and Strickland but I can make D nut map anytime , when I make 23 predicted maps I will have Beshear and Presley winning and 24 OH, MO going D and MT and WV going R

All the ratings have PA solid D didn't they learn their lesson from Fetterman narrow win 51/47 and Center Street Pack had Fetterman up 55/33 and Inside Advantage had it 47/44 Oz

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R, but could/probably will move to Likely R pretty quickly, esp. if the presidential race is close.

Democratic prospects are quite overrated in all of WV, OH, MT, and TX, especially the last three, although I find the idea that WV wasn’t at least Likely R before Justice's decision (or that Justice is a "strong" enough candidate to dramatically alter the state of race) hilariously inane. While I agree that Tester will be "tougher" to beat than Manchin or Brown, I also think he’ll have his "toughest" race so far, and I say this as someone who will finally be working on the campaign to unseat him and basically tends to lower his expectations as much as possible when approaching any statewide contest in MT.

I’m also not entirely convinced that Democrats are in any better than a 50/50 position to hold NV just because Cortez Masto barely won last year in what was the best midterm performance of the "out" party in nearly 100 years.

Tentative/early ratings:

Tier I - DEM-held seats that could flip even in a close presidential race

WV - Safe R
OH - Lean/Likely R
MT - Tilt/Lean R
NV - Toss-up

Tier II - DEM-held seats that would only flip in a convincing Republican win at the top of the ticket

AZ - Lean D with or without Sinema running as an I/third-party candidate
WI - Lean D
PA - Lean D (not at all convinced this one will be much tougher than MI or that Casey's brand is unassailable)
MI - Lean D

Tier III - Republican-held seats

FL - Likely R
TX - Lean R

Everything else is safe, incl. VA (even with Youngkin) and MO (even with Kander's twin).

[OSR stands with Israel]

This far out, I don’t know how you justify anything beyond Lean R.

Democrats have to win 2 of these 3 races in order to take the senate : MT, OH , TX . Now while you can argue MT is a tossup , OH and TX are likely R in terms of likelihood in going for the GOP even if they are Lean R in terms of margin .

Likely seems like a bit much. In 2018 OH-SEN was only about a point right of the nation; it was 10 points right in 2016 and 12 points right in 2020. Let's say Brown keeps Ohio five points right of the nation somehow; Biden winning the nation by 5 points is within the realm of possibility. Definitely optimistic but not out of the question.

With respect to Texas, Trump won it by <6 points, it's trending left, and Cruz will underperform. Again, not Likely R

Texas isn’t trending anywhere near as democratic as this forum thinks . It still voted 10 points to the right of the nation in 2020 so the democrats need at least a 2008 style win to win that Texas senate seat and that style win probably still won’t be enough to win Texas presidentially .

Texas voted only 8 points to the right in the midterm. I think your fetishization with safe red Texas is clouding your judgment. Cruz is a lot more vulnerable against the right challenger than you think.

In 2010 Texas only voted 5.9 points to the right of the nation so by this logic it has trended to the right in the past 12 years lol.

[President Johnson]

Lean Republican.

West Virginia is 100% gone for good, and Montana, Ohio and Arizona are tossups at least. I think Casey and Baldwin remain clear favorites as of now. The bad news is that I don't see Democrats having a serious shot at flipping a seat. Florida isn't going to happen and I doubt Texas is there yet. Sure, that was said about Georgia before as well, but I remain skeptical.

If Biden's wins reelection, I think there's some chance Brown and Tester hold on, and Gallego takes Arizona. That would get Democrats back to a 50-50, but without Manchin, Sinema and Feinstein. It's a heavy lift, but far from impossible. It just sucks that Ron Johnson wasn't defeated last year. He's one of the most obnoxious senators.