2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[LabourJersey]

Murphy will win this in a landslide, IMO

The only thing that could change that is a Sanders endorsement for Wisniewski.

A Sanders endorsement would be interesting and could upend things, but Sanders only won 35% of the vote in the primary last June. While I like Wisniewski more than Murphy, I think the establishment means a lot in the state, and Murphy has the whole establishment behind him at this point.

[LabourJersey]

Murphy will win. All of the state establishment wants Murphy, and Wisniewski likely doesn't have the firepower to make a good insurgent run; it doesn't even look like Wisniewski will win the endorsement of the Middlesex party (his home county). Progressives' best chance here would be to get a Rush Holt type endorsed by Sanders, and take advantage of Murphy's current anonymity.

Yeah New Jersey is a *very* establishment state. I'd argue it's a model for other state Democratic Parties, though that's up for debate, but virtually every township in the state has a local Democratic council, who're engaged with the county council, who are in turn engaged with statewide Dems, so winning the county line can bank you a lot of votes. That doesn't even begin to explain Norcross influence on South Jersey, Baraka influence in Newark, and Fulop/Menendez influence in Hudson County. Murphy has almost every important county line and Wisniewski is hated by state Dems because he was seen as a bad chair for the party, so Murphy probably has this locked up.

That is not true at all. A huge number of townships (and boroughs, towns, etc.) have Republican councils in NJ. One town direct north of mine is a bedroom community of New York, and has never elected a Democratic council member since the 1890s!

Also, at least half a dozens counties have all-GOP or mostly-GOP county councils (known as freeholders in NJ), such as Morris, Burlington, Warren, Salem, etc. So the Democrats by no means have a monopoly on local elections throughout the state.

[LabourJersey]

Murphy will win. All of the state establishment wants Murphy, and Wisniewski likely doesn't have the firepower to make a good insurgent run; it doesn't even look like Wisniewski will win the endorsement of the Middlesex party (his home county). Progressives' best chance here would be to get a Rush Holt type endorsed by Sanders, and take advantage of Murphy's current anonymity.

Yeah New Jersey is a *very* establishment state. I'd argue it's a model for other state Democratic Parties, though that's up for debate, but virtually every township in the state has a local Democratic council, who're engaged with the county council, who are in turn engaged with statewide Dems, so winning the county line can bank you a lot of votes. That doesn't even begin to explain Norcross influence on South Jersey, Baraka influence in Newark, and Fulop/Menendez influence in Hudson County. Murphy has almost every important county line and Wisniewski is hated by state Dems because he was seen as a bad chair for the party, so Murphy probably has this locked up.

That is not true at all. A huge number of townships (and boroughs, towns, etc.) have Republican councils in NJ. One town direct north of mine is a bedroom community of New York, and has never elected a Democratic council member since the 1890s!

Also, at least half a dozens counties have all-GOP or mostly-GOP county councils (known as freeholders in NJ), such as Morris, Burlington, Warren, Salem, etc. So the Democrats by no means have a monopoly on local elections throughout the state.

That came out wrong, I don't mean the City Council is Democratic. I mean there's a chapter of the Democratic Party specifically for that town. So Town X, NJ has a "Town Democratic Committee" which engages which the county party, which in turn engages with the state party, so winning the county line is huge because a lot of those local Democrats are engaged with primary voters throughout the year.

Sorry, I see what you meant now. And I do agree with you there; I think the average democratic primary voter in NJ has a better connection with the local establishment that those in, say, California or Colorado presumably. A legacy of the turn of the century machines, mostly.

[LabourJersey]

I honestly don't understand the Kean obsession among certain people on this forum. He's a perfectly fine State Senator and Minority Leader, but he really doesn't have much charisma or charm.

He only did as well as he did in the 2006 Senate race because Menendez was unknown, and because many people still remembered his father fondly. However, no one under the age of 25 knew who Tom Kean Sr. was; now few people under 40 do, so his name recognition isn't what it used to be.

[LabourJersey]

I don't know why Lesniak is running at all. Him and Wisniewski are gonna split the progressive vote, and Jim Johnson (assuming he gets on the ballot) is going to eat up a few more anti-Murphy/anti-establishment votes. At that point Murphy could win with just 40% of the vote (which is, again, a very generous estimate given that Murphy has the ballot lines for most counties).

Lesniak is what the establishment Dems call a "show-boater," he loves the attention that a gubernatorial run would give him. Also he is 70, and he was forced out of the Dem leadership in his county, so he has nothing to lose at this point.

As a Wisniewski supporter I do worry that he is splitting the vote, and making a Murphy "coronation" all the more likely.

[LabourJersey]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

Jeff Weaver endorses Wisniewski!

Wisniewski is toast IMO but I would prefer him over Menendez in 2018 Senate race!

Holy crap I agree with Shadows on something

Fulop would be good against Menendez too, IMO

There have been rumors that Fulop somehow had some connection to people involved in Bridgegate. I believe it was on POLITICO NJ when he announced he wasn't running for Governor. If that's even remotely true, I highly doubt he would run in '18.

I do think Menendez is probably going to retire, which would be good for the state, and assuming Wiz does lose the primary I hope he's the frontrunner for the Senate seat

[LabourJersey]

Much of the reason that New Jerseyans don't vote Republican for anyone but Governor is mostly because the Nat'l Republican offer most of the moderate voters in the state nothing. Many of the moderates in NJ are non-white, and most have college degrees--this was not a recipe for GOP vote in the Bush era, Tea Party era and certainly not the Trump era.

Governor is the only exception mostly because a lot of the general anti-tax sentiment often gets projected onto the governor, and many center-left voters didn't particularly mind a GOP governor and a Dem legislature. I think that has changed during Christie, and I personally think he poisoned the well for the NJ Republicans, but that remains to be seen.

No one knows how Murphy would do as governor, but I don't think it's possible for the GOP to win one of the legislative chambers in '19, short of Jeff Sessions purging the voter rolls in NJ to eliminate anyone with a Hispanic or Indian surname.

[LabourJersey]

I'm still expecting Murphy to win, but I'd consider anything closer than about 58-42 (or the equivalent percentages of a lower total if Lesniak and/or Johnson stay in) a good sign and a step in the right direction. For reference Clinton beat Sanders 63-37.

Agreed-if someone like Wisniewski could win 40%+ of a Dem electorate like New Jersey's, that does suggest a major shift to the left in the Party as a whole. Also, a close win by Murphy (or a loss) would totally embarrass the county chairs in NJ and suggest that they've lost a lot of power, which would be an incredibly good thing going forward for the state.

[LabourJersey]

Piscopo put an Op-Ed in the Star Ledger today. He seems to refute the claim that he's a Trumpian candidate, and mentions he though that Sanders should have been the Democratic nominee last year.

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/03/piscopo_if_i_run_for_governor_ill_bring_all_sides.html#incart_river_index

He clearly seems to want to run, though this implies to me he wants to run as an Independent though he's using a lot of generic NJ republican rhetoric. As a Democrat I would be thrilled if he ran, since it would only further ensure that a Democrat would win.

[LabourJersey]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

The initial excitement has dissipated. He's a dead candidate walking right now.

Personally I still think Wiz could get into a stronger position in the next two months than you might think. Murphy has already started attacking Wiz in rather shady ways on guns, environmental issues etc. I think it's very possible that national progressive groups start to mobilize in the last few weeks to "BEAT GOLDMAN SACHS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT!!!!" and turn the primary (briefly) into a national thing.

Of course I could be wrong and Murphy will just sail through with 70% +, but I am still skeptical a large majority of Democratic primary voters are going to turn out for a Goldman Sachs guy in 2017.

[LabourJersey]

This new story from the Observer shows that millennial New Jerseyans may be trending towards Phil Murphy. The hardcore millennial Bernie Sanders supporters are disappointed in Wisniewski that Sanders didn't win in New Jersey. We'll see what happens.

http://observer.com/2017/03/nj-young-voters-john-wisniewski-phil-murphy/

It's not Wiz's fault Bernie lost NJ lmao. By the time the New Jersey primary came around, Bernie was pretty much eliminated anyway.

Yeah that is incredibly stupid thinking--Bernie was never favored to win, and the whole Sanders campaign was obsessively focused on California anyway. Sanders did about as well as I expected from him. You can't blame Wiz for failing to do the almost-impossible

[LabourJersey]

If Piscopo runs third party he'll get less than 5% of the vote. unsurprisingly, a stupid move for him. Running in the GOP primary would've given him a chance against Christie's No.2.

I do find this odd, since he would have been the only pro-Trump candidate for Governor in a republican primary electorate thats very pro-Trump. I think Piscopo is convinced that Guadagno will win the nom, and he thought by running as an Indie, he can run against both the Christie admin. and the Democrats in one go.

I have no clue how well he would do, but if he runs a very Trumpian campaign, I can see him getting 10-12% of the vote (but nothing higher than that).

[LabourJersey]

Ciattarelli could well win win the GOP primary by the way.

I don't know that, it is just a guess, and Guadagno won some super-important county lines in Ocean, Monmouth, Bergen, Cumberland and Atlantic Counties, but Ciattarelli has momentum going into Middlesex, won Essex, Union, Somerset, Burlington and Mercer, and is widely regarded as a far superior candidate to Kim, Guadagno, who is closely tied to Christie and frankly not a very good politician. Ciattarelli is a really good speaker/campaigner, talks a lot about school funding (which is the #1 issue for a lot of New Jersey's suburbia), and is seen as the better candidate against Murphy.

Ciattarelli is a rising star. I've saw him speak on TV. He is a good speaker. He could give Phil Murphy a competitive race, but it would still be Likely D. Guadagno is somewhat boring, but would be a good 2018 or 2020 Senate candidate.

I could see a Republican winning against a sufficiently damaged Menendez, but I really doubt Guadagno would be that Republican.

Agreed-- Guadagno is not that talented a politician (she's decent compared to other NJ pols, but that is a low bar). I strongly doubt she could win against Menendez, no matter how hurt he would be

[LabourJersey]

Endorsement Alert: Former New York City mayor David Dinkins endorses former Treasury Undersecretary Jim Johnson (D) for governor. It could help Johnson with black voters who left NY and are still upset that the first black mayor of one of America's largest cities lost to Rudy Giuliani.

http://observer.com/2017/04/nj-governors-race-former-nyc-mayor-backs-johnson/

Bronz, you must accept at one point or another that very, VERY few voters care about NYC politics of the 1990s, even those who lived there during that period. People under 40 barely know who Dinkins is. He is the product of another time, another New York. 

Also I guess this would help Johnson, but I don't really see his constituency outside of middle/upper class African Americans. That's a good-sized group in an NJ democratic party, but not enough to win or even reach 15% of the vote.

[LabourJersey]

Wiz has gone from polling consistently below 10% to 35%?

I'm 99% that is the results of an NJTV online poll after the 2nd Democratic debate that was last Thursday, so take it with a grain of salt.

That being said, Murphy didn't handle himself very well. He was getting beat up by all three of the other candidates, and never really had any answer to his past with Goldman Sachs. For instance, Wiz attacked Murphy for giving a speech in 2013 praising fracking, and all Murphy came up with was "well I wasn't running for Governor in 2013."

Murphy is sort of likable but he's trying to get the nomination solely on name recognition, county lines and BS like "Well I left Goldman in 2003." I don't see this as a guaranteed winning strategy.

[LabourJersey]

Wiz has gone from polling consistently below 10% to 35%?

I'm 99% that is the results of an NJTV online poll after the 2nd Democratic debate that was last Thursday, so take it with a grain of salt.

That being said, Murphy didn't handle himself very well. He was getting beat up by all three of the other candidates, and never really had any answer to his past with Goldman Sachs. For instance, Wiz attacked Murphy for giving a speech in 2013 praising fracking, and all Murphy came up with was "well I wasn't running for Governor in 2013."

Murphy is sort of likable but he's trying to get the nomination solely on name recognition, county lines and BS like "Well I left Goldman in 2003." I don't see this as a guaranteed winning strategy.

I agree with this assessment of the poll. Online polls are not scientific and have been shown to not be accurate.

Yes exactly--I would be floored if Wiz won by 6 points and Murphy getting third place. That being said, I don't think Murphy is a guaranteed shoo-in for the nomination at this point, just because he reminds so many Democrats of Corzine and has done really nothing to soften those comparisons.

[LabourJersey]

Honestly, I wouldn't want to see either Wiz or Murphy governing my birth state.

What exactly do you have against Wiz?

[LabourJersey]

Yes, Guadagno is running for Governor in 2017. She will most likely lose this year, but she could come back in 2021 if Murphy screws up, or she could run for Senate in 2018 or 2020. If Booker runs for president in 2020, Guadagno may be the GOP Senate frontrunner in N.J., next to Bramnick, Jay Webber, or Tom Kean, Jr.

that only if booker wins the election

I strongly doubt a special election in 2021 would be a toss up, unless it's incredibly low turnout and Booker (or any other Dem) is somehow incredibly unpopular a year in.

I think the GOP could obviously have a chance in '21, but that's if Murphy screws up and the state party puts Christie behind him (voters have short memories, so who knows). But senatorial races are just not going to be competitive unless we have a horrendously unpopular president or a Senator who's an Evan Mecham-type crazy dude.

[LabourJersey]

My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

I suppose that's possible-- the ethics angle would be a perfect contrast. My hope is that Rush Holt comes out of retirement to primary Menendez, or Pallone, but I would certainly support Johnson if it came down to him or Bobby.

[LabourJersey]

My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

I suppose that's possible-- the ethics angle would be a perfect contrast. My hope is that Rush Holt comes out of retirement to primary Menendez, or Pallone, but I would certainly support Johnson if it came down to him or Bobby.

Holt would be the perfect candidate for the Dems to nominate in a Trump midterm.

Exactly! He would be the antidote to Trump -- a positive, intelligent public servant who knows how to get things done. I almost wanted him to win in 2013, and he would be probably favored against Menendez in the primary

[LabourJersey]

I imagine the final Dem spread will be something along the lines of
Murphy 58
Johnson 20
Wiz 12
Lesniak 8
Others 2

GOP
Guadagno 53
Ciattarelli 40
Others 7

Lesniak won't get 8%, but I think Johnson and Wiz will both do better than people think. I wouldn't be surprised if Murphy wins with less than 50% of the vote, which would really embarrassing for the county bosses (which is a good thing)

[LabourJersey]

I'll just note that from observation, momentum is strongly headed towards Johnson and against Murphy if social media is any indicator. I wonder if it reflects in the polling at all...

I have noticed a pull against Murphy-- the Goldman Sachs label is probably wearing him down. I still think he's likely to win, but I don't think he'd get a majority.

I think it will go something like this:
Murphy 47%
Johnson 27%
Wiz 20%
Lesniak 4%
Other 2%

[LabourJersey]

As an example of the negative attacks against Murphy so far this primary, this is what the Johnson camp recently (today) accused Murphy of: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/jim_johnson_hits_phil_murphy_over_goldman_sach_asi.html

Headline: Phil Murphy's rival just accused him of profiting from slave labor at Goldman Sachs

It's been the same thread of attacks for a while, though this is probably the most negative attack so far. Fair or not, it speaks to the lack of coverage of the primary that attacks like these haven't made any significant noise.

That is a grotesque line of attack

It's a little grotesque, but at the same time it's fair game. If someone in big finance wishes to run for a major office in the modern Democratic party, they should expect stuff like this is going to come up.

[LabourJersey]

Anyone think it's a possible for the frontrunners (Murphy and Guadango) for the D and R tickets to be beaten tomorrow?

I feel like low turnout could produce a Johnson / Ciattarelli win

I think it's definitely possible that either could lose. I'd even say that if the both of them were head-to-head with one of their opponents (Guadango v. Ciattarelli and Murphy v. Wiz/Johnson) they would be more than likely to lose.

What will push them over the top is their county lines and the divided opposition--Wiz and Johnson pull votes from won another. I would not be shocked (but would be saddened) if the two combined got an equal amount of voters as Murphy. Also Singh and Rullo will definitely pull anti-Christie voters away from Ciatterelli, which he would need.

[LabourJersey]

Friends working on various campaigns Murphy, Wiz, Johnson and Guadagno (lol) said that turn out seemed so light for A.M. rush because of rain and non-focus on the race that they really think a few thousand vote push by any of the campaigns could sway result.

Absolutely--the democratic primary election is going to be a lot closer than people expect. The people who care a lot about the race are mostly anti-Murphy, so the margin could be slim. I still think Murphy will win though