Ohio redistricting thread

[Torie]

Here is a map that gets rid of a county chop (only about 150 people are in play, far smaller than one precinct) between OH-06 and OH-15  (Scioto) in exchange for more erosity, and keeps OH-12 out of the City of Columbus, and gets the BCVAP of OH-03 up to 32%. It still snatches OH-12 away from the Dems of course by moving Fairfield from OH-15 to OH-12. This is what I call a gerrymander light map (in the Columbus area, not the Cincinnati area (the chop into Hamilton can be made into a much more Dem area and make the CD a couple a point or so more Pub), and certainly  not in the Cleveland area, where as we discussed, with a map that scores almost equally as well as drawn above, OH-07 can be a point or so more Pub).

In the Columbus area the map is drawn for partisan reasons, but other than that, scores close to the map which does not move Fairfield to OH-12 to make it a 100% suburban CD.

I might add that a lagniappe for the Pubs is that the incumbent Stivers lives in Arlington, so he is not discommoded.

[palandio]

To illustrate what I wrote about the options for keeping Youngstown and Warren together I drew the following maps. My 2020 population projections seem to differ slightly from Torie's because I extrapolated from 2010-2019 trends.

The Dayton-Springfield seat is drawn relatively D-friendly, but that's not my point and it could be easily changed by exchanging areas between the Dayton-Springfield seat, the Cincinatti ex-urban seat and the Southern Ohio seat.

My main point is the different arrangements in NE Ohio.

[lfromnj]

To illustrate what I wrote about the options for keeping Youngstown and Warren together I drew the following maps. My 2020 population projections seem to differ slightly from Torie's because I extrapolated from 2010-2019 trends.

The Dayton-Springfield seat is drawn relatively D-friendly, but that's not my point and it could be easily changed by exchanging areas between the Dayton-Springfield seat, the Cincinatti ex-urban seat and the Southern Ohio seat.

My main point is the different arrangements in NE Ohio.

The first map is pretty good although the Western Cleveland District is a light D friendly. Should replace inner-ring Lakewood which is basically an extension of West Cleveland with the more exurban parts of Cuyahoga like Royalton and Broadview heights. Infact Lakewood is more densely populated than Cleveland !

And then yes obviously the Dayton district should just be Montgomery+Greene+ northern Warren.

[palandio]

Which would turn the Western Cleveland seat into ca. Trump +5.

Seems still fair for Democrats:
3 safe D seats
1 seat in Northern Columbus that voted for Biden in 2020 and is clearly trending D
Several more seats within striking distance:
Toledo
Akron/Canton
Western Cleveland
Eastern/Southern Cleveland (actually not trending away from Democrats)
Youngstown (a bit of a stretch now)
Dayton (without Springfield a longshot, but could be in play in a favorable environment)

If Democrats continue to lose by 8 points, then they don't deserve more than 4 seats, but if they make a comeback (similar to Sherrod Brown's performance in 2018), half of the map is in play.

[lfromnj]

Which would turn the Western Cleveland seat into ca. Trump +5.

Seems still fair for Democrats:
3 safe D seats
1 seat in Northern Columbus that voted for Biden in 2020 and is clearly trending D
Several more seats within striking distance:
Toledo
Akron/Canton
Western Cleveland
Eastern/Southern Cleveland (actually not trending away from Democrats)
Youngstown (a bit of a stretch now)
Dayton (without Springfield a longshot, but could be in play in a favorable environment)

If Democrats continue to lose by 8 points, then they don't deserve more than 4 seats, but if they make a comeback (similar to Sherrod Brown's performance in 2018), half of the map is in play.

Basically yes, it can be quite "unfair" to Democrats in a neutral/R leaning year with them possibly getting only 3 seats if they can't win the northern Cbus seat either. However also many swing seats that they can win in a good year.

[Torie]

Just to pull it all all together to complete this little exploration into partisan options, below is a Pub gerrymander light map  (i.e., a map that represents a reasonable choice in drawing the lines based on accepted metrics (other than of course competitiveness and proportionality), but the choice made always favors one party), that yes, I understand, will satisfy the "go for the throat" types about as much as watered down beer, but whatever. Gerrymander light maps are less likely to generate blow-back, and often will get the party drawing the lines about three quarters of what they want, but why should they play the long game, when one pines for instant gratification?

[palandio]

Just to pull it all all together to complete this little exploration into partisan options, below is a Pub gerrymander light map  (i.e., a map that represents a reasonable choice in drawing the lines based on accepted metrics (other than of course competitiveness and proportionality), but the choice made always favors one party), that yes, I understand, will satisfy the "go for the throat" types about as much as watered down beer, but whatever. Gerrymander light maps are less likely to generate blow-back, and often will get the party drawing the lines about three quarters of what they want, but why should they play the long game, when one pines for instant gratification?

Seems mostly realistic and shows how easy it is to deny Democrats the chance at a second seat in Columbus. And you could go even further by not combining Delaware with any areas of Franklin.

The chop 12th's chop into Franklin from two sides is ugly, though. I would move the 3rd slightly to the SW (only slightly), leaving two chops of Franklin: A bigger one in the Sough and West that goes to the 15th and a smaller one in the NE that goes to the 12th.

Did you calculate numbers for the 12th? I wonder how it voted in 2020, although that's probably difficult to calculate at the moment.

[lfromnj]

Infact the two side cross in Franklin is illegal to Ohio law.


Also Cuyahoga has to be triple split in any GOP made map due to Hunting Valley donors. Also Lakewood and Gonzalez isn't great for him.

[Sol]

Has anyone found a way to make a CVAP plurality Black district in Cleveland? I've tried a bunch with it but haven't been able to find a way which stays in Cuyahoga County--have to go into Twinsburg or surrounds.

[Torie]

Infact the two side cross in Franklin is illegal to Ohio law.

Well fancy that. Who knew?

[lfromnj]

Infact the two side cross in Franklin is illegal to Ohio law.

Well fancy that. Who knew?

Also I see you try to make the Cinci district more swingy. At this point I don't think its really worth it for the GOP. I Would just put the NE corner of Hamilton with Indian Hill and similar super rich areas in the 2nd district rather than trying to make the 1st district more swingy.

[Torie]

I moved the Hamilton County chop location to illustrate the gerrymandering "light" theme. If Hamilton County is not quite yet gone for the GOP, it soon will be. Resistance is futile.

[Torie]

Has anyone found a way to make a CVAP plurality Black district in Cleveland? I've tried a bunch with it but haven't been able to find a way which stays in Cuyahoga County--have to go into Twinsburg or surrounds.

You don't need to do that for legal, and certainly policy reasons. If more than 50% of the voters in a Dem primary are black, it is a per se performing black CD, under the law and otherwise. In this case, OH-11 in all events has many white voters in a Dem primary who are perfectly willing to vote for a black, and indeed many would consider that a plus.

[lfromnj]

Yeah a lighter version of a gerrymander is fairly simple for the Ohio GOP. As shown earlier an actual fair map can only have 3 Clinton districts. A light gerrymander just pushes the swing seats to the right/satisfies incumbent demands.

[Idaho Conservative]

Yeah a lighter version of a gerrymander is fairly simple for the Ohio GOP. As shown earlier an actual fair map can only have 3 Clinton districts. A light gerrymander just pushes the swing seats to the right/satisfies incumbent demands.

yeah a tilt R map would have 2 solid Dem seats (Cleveland and Columbus), a likely Dem seat (Cinci), 1 tossup/lean R seat in Akron or Cleveland suburbs, 1 or 2 likely R seats (Toledo and maybe somewhere else) and the rest would be safe.  Worst case scenario 9/15 seats are safe.  They'll probably win 12-13 in 2022.

[Torie]

Just to pull it all all together to complete this little exploration into partisan options, below is a Pub gerrymander light map  (i.e., a map that represents a reasonable choice in drawing the lines based on accepted metrics (other than of course competitiveness and proportionality), but the choice made always favors one party), that yes, I understand, will satisfy the "go for the throat" types about as much as watered down beer, but whatever. Gerrymander light maps are less likely to generate blow-back, and often will get the party drawing the lines about three quarters of what they want, but why should they play the long game, when one pines for instant gratification?




Seems mostly realistic and shows how easy it is to deny Democrats the chance at a second seat in Columbus. And you could go even further by not combining Delaware with any areas of Franklin.

The chop 12th's chop into Franklin from two sides is ugly, though. I would move the 3rd slightly to the SW (only slightly), leaving two chops of Franklin: A bigger one in the Sough and West that goes to the 15th and a smaller one in the NE that goes to the 12th.

Did you calculate numbers for the 12th? I wonder how it voted in 2020, although that's probably difficult to calculate at the moment.

Per the map above, which removed the alleged illegality that I internalized, voila! Trump 2020 was utterly toxic in Franklin, particularly bourgeoisie Franklin (ditto Delaware of course). Who knew? It helps when data sorting precinct by precinct numbers in a county, to have respected municipality lines, and within Columbus, ward lines. Ha! Life is beautiful.

[Torie]

This is a precinct by precinct data sort in Franklin, so these numbers should be very close to the correct ones. It is convenient for the Pubs that the counties south of Franklin love them so much in their current iteration. OH-15 can take a very big Franklin hit without any problem at all for them.

[Tintrlvr]

Torie, I think your OH-07 is illegal. Every district has to either be entirely contained within a single county or include at least one whole county. OH-07 only has parts of three different counties.

[kwabbit]

Hypothetical Ohio Fair Map



I think it's illegal though, bc the 13th cedes just a little bit of Lorain County to the 10th for population equity. I'm not sure how to get around that, assuming that Cuyahoga shouldn't be split thrice. Either way, lots of Competitive districts. The 8, 12, 13, and 5 were all likely razor close this past year. With the first 3 potentially being Clinton/Trump and the 5th being Trump/Biden. I think only the 13th and 5th actually flipped this year though.

[Tintrlvr]

Hypothetical Ohio Fair Map



I think it's illegal though, bc the 13th cedes just a little bit of Lorain County to the 10th for population equity. I'm not sure how to get around that, assuming that Cuyahoga shouldn't be split thrice. Either way, lots of Competitive districts. The 8, 12, 13, and 5 were all likely razor close this past year. With the first 3 potentially being Clinton/Trump and the 5th being Trump/Biden. I think only the 13th and 5th actually flipped this year though.

You can split one county (only) between three districts under the rules (otherwise I think drawing the NE of the map would be impossible within the rules). Just peel some of the far east of Cuyahoga County into OH-14.

I do think OH-5 should slide around the eastern suburbs of Columbus. The counties to the west of Franklin are basically entirely outside of the built up area around Columbus.

[Sol]

I don't think the Youngstown area belongs with Lake County.

[S019]

Given the fact that a vulnerable west Cleveland seat seems unavoidable, I see no reason to not just keep the Toledo to West Cleveland sink and that means Akron can't support a competitive seat anymore either, and thus Ryan would be DoA. Keeping a competitive seat in NE Ohio gives Ryan a chance to return, keeping the Toledo sink for at least one more decade has to be a more preferable option for OH Republicans. Basically once those deep blue west Cleveland precincts are out of the way, you can easily put Akron in with red areas, and you end up with 1 Safe D and 1 Safe R seat rather than the 2 tossup seats that are being proposed in this thread.

[Idaho Conservative]

Given the fact that a vulnerable west Cleveland seat seems unavoidable, I see no reason to not just keep the Toledo to West Cleveland sink and that means Akron can't support a competitive seat anymore either, and thus Ryan would be DoA. Keeping a competitive seat in NE Ohio gives Ryan a chance to return, keeping the Toledo sink for at least one more decade has to be a more preferable option for OH Republicans. Basically once those deep blue west Cleveland precincts are out of the way, you can easily put Akron in with red areas, and you end up with 1 Safe D and 1 Safe R seat rather than the 2 tossup seats that are being proposed in this thread.

the snake by the lake can't remain

[lfromnj]

Given the fact that a vulnerable west Cleveland seat seems unavoidable, I see no reason to not just keep the Toledo to West Cleveland sink and that means Akron can't support a competitive seat anymore either, and thus Ryan would be DoA. Keeping a competitive seat in NE Ohio gives Ryan a chance to return, keeping the Toledo sink for at least one more decade has to be a more preferable option for OH Republicans. Basically once those deep blue west Cleveland precincts are out of the way, you can easily put Akron in with red areas, and you end up with 1 Safe D and 1 Safe R seat rather than the 2 tossup seats that are being proposed in this thread.

the snake by the lake can't remain

And most of the West Cleveland maps where you split Cuyahoga in 3 in this board are putting Lakewood with the district when Lakewood should really go with the Cleveland "sink" in either a fair map/GOP map. You can get the district to around Trump +9 with some just moderate tinkering.

[Torie]

Torie, I think your OH-07 is illegal. Every district has to either be entirely contained within a single county or include at least one whole county. OH-07 only has parts of three different counties.

Right you are! I can't get away with anything with you guys!

Well, the gerrymander light will need to get a little less light then. I am going to punish the Dems for forcing me to follow this stupid law, and then punish them some more. I have a plan!

Sol or somebody started this by whining about severing Trumbull from Mahoning (that is legal isn't it?), and one thing leads to another and then another. OH-14 has some surplus Pubs, and it is time to put them to work!