I actually do think this wave is going to hit New England harder than 2010/2014 (at the federal level, at least), but I still wouldn’t expect Republicans to beat Lamont, much less to win both chambers of the CT legislature. I think they have a chance of winning CT-05 and even CT-02 on a really bad night for Democrats, however. They could conceivably also win some other statewide race, but GOV seems very unlikely.
Democrats are so exposed in New England and reliant on rural/small-town white voters (again, not all of those are *radically secular*) that the dam could easily break in a few seats much like it did in IA in 2014.
It’s a question of how sustainable you think those margins are for Democrats. Obviously I don’t expect places like VT-AL, MA-01, MA-02, etc. to be remotely competitive/close, but Democrats have far less room for any collapse in the white vote in other seats like ME-02, CT-05, CT-02, NH-02 (esp. if the map drawn by the Legislature is vetoed by Sununu). If they lose some of those in addition to NH-01 and maybe one other upset seat (RI-2?), Republicans will likely have more Representatives from New England than after 2010/2014.
I think New England is going to start trending right and I think this election might be the first signs of it. Democrats probably reached their peak in 2020, but they are so overexposed and vulnerable in the region its bound to swing right by quite a bit.
