Probably Obama, simply because Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary.
Weren't you previously saying that Johnson's ceiling was 2%? Or are you expecting big things from McMullin? 
His polling has held up better than I expected, so I'm thinking more like 3-4% now. But it's not like it would take a massive third party vote among Republicans to hold Hillary under the 9% that Obama got.
Ah, maybe I misunderstood you then. You said "Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary". If 8% of Republicans vote for Clinton and 4% of them for Johnson or other third party candidates, then it's not true that "Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary". But maybe by "more likely" you meant more likely to vote third party than in 2008.
Yeah, the latter is what I meant. If 8% vote Clinton and 4% vote third party, that would still be option 1 in the poll.
Poll
