Kentucky - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread

[Torie]

So, will Obama carry any counties?  How bad will the slaughter be?

Let's get the ball rolling!

I would think Obama would have a pretty good shot at carrying Jefferson County. That is about it.

[Torie]

Anecdotally, it seems that Obama could win McCracken County (Paducah), at least based on only a pair of online reports. Which aren't very reliable but seemed to suggest a lot of Obama organization and signs there, which does make sense given that it border Illinois. I also wouldn't count out Boone and Kenton Counties (Covington and other Cincinnati suburbs).

I wouldn't count on any of that myself. It ain't going to happen. Paducah? Paducah! 

[Torie]

[quote]Clinton will try to seat them and she probably has a good chance of succeeding.[/.quote]

That will only happen if Obama otherwise has the nomination wrapped up, so that it is moot.

[Torie]

100% reporting and Hillary Clinton wins 65-30.  458,955 to 209,763.

My Spreadsheet has it 66.8%, 30.5%, 2.6%.

[Torie]

Another good speech, but no substance at all. We're electing a President, not an orator.

It bored me, but hey, I bore easily!

[Torie]

Numbers-wise, the only real difference in the final totals is the % of blacks in the primaries of WV and KY.  Yes, it's more subtle than that, but generically that's what it looks like.

CD 5 in Kentucky seems to have an usually low number of white voters voting for Obama. It seems almost sui generis to me. I don't think West Virginia has anything to match it.

I should have predicted that Obama was in the hunt  to win Fayette County. It's 14% black (I didn't know it was that high), and has the horsey folks, along with a bunch of white white collar Yankees working for IBM, etc.