2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2 (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 167357 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #100 on: July 15, 2020, 07:04:28 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on July 15, 2020, 06:39:09 AM
CO-03: Boebert raised $19k in Q2.
KS-02: Watkins raised $124k in Q2.



Yikes, CO-03 is def tossup. And with Watkins troubles, KS-02 should be too.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #101 on: July 16, 2020, 05:15:29 AM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on July 15, 2020, 04:45:04 PM
A Biden landslide will mean a down ballot landslide for Democrats. I find it hard to believe the polls are actually tightening, especially right now. Biden has been leading by double digits for over a month now.

Not to mention, the GCB ballot question has been steady for over a YEAR now
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #102 on: July 16, 2020, 09:33:32 AM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on July 16, 2020, 08:40:04 AM
This doesn’t sound like a tightening house race, especially if Dan Crenshaw is a target now.



Yeah... that Fitz +14 poll is sure looking way off
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #103 on: July 20, 2020, 05:34:42 PM »
Funny how none of these GOP internals have any prez #s
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #104 on: July 21, 2020, 08:31:34 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 21, 2020, 07:20:43 AM

It's more revealing that this is the only Trump approval number they released; no other issues, and no general job approval.

and still no prez #s...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #105 on: July 21, 2020, 09:59:39 AM »
Quote from: Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More on July 21, 2020, 09:07:59 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 21, 2020, 08:31:34 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 21, 2020, 07:20:43 AM

It's more revealing that this is the only Trump approval number they released; no other issues, and no general job approval.

and still no prez #s...
It’s a GOP internal right?

Yep, nearly all the GOP internals have provided non prez #s. The only one I've seen that did was the PA-01 one, which had a horrific number for Trump
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #106 on: July 22, 2020, 08:15:26 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on July 22, 2020, 08:14:50 AM

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

FINALLY! I was wondering why MC stopped doing their GCB like 3 months ago
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #107 on: July 22, 2020, 08:38:57 AM »
NJ-03
CLF / R internal

Andy Kim (D) 45%
David Richter (R) 42%

Tragic for an R internal

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/gop-polls-hows-dead-heat-in-nj-3-race-between-kim-richter/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #108 on: July 23, 2020, 07:05:42 PM »
For what it's worth, the Civiqs tracker has the GCB at D+10, its highest level since at least June of last year (thats when the tracking began)

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #109 on: July 27, 2020, 09:23:59 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #110 on: July 30, 2020, 05:59:03 AM »
MN-01 Victoria Research & Consulting/HMP (D internal)

Feehan (D) 48
Hagedorn (R-inc) 46

http://files.www.thehousemajoritypac.com/research/MN-01_poll.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #111 on: July 31, 2020, 05:45:26 AM »
Quote from: DaWN on July 31, 2020, 05:41:36 AM
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on July 31, 2020, 05:28:32 AM
Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Also, they really had GA06 tossup this whole time Huh Seriously?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #112 on: August 03, 2020, 02:38:43 PM »
There's a LOT that is questionable about that poll, plus it's Scott Rasmussen so...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #113 on: August 03, 2020, 04:26:31 PM »
Quote from: Pollster on August 03, 2020, 04:01:06 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 03, 2020, 02:38:43 PM
There's a LOT that is questionable about that poll, plus it's Scott Rasmussen so...

Scott Rasmussen is a good pollster, Rasmussen Reports (with which he is no longer affiliated) is not.

is RMG really that good? the poll had 25% undecided, which is kind of a ridiculous #. Not to mention, his unknown challenger has a better approval rating than McAdams does?

This guy has like $90k CoH compared to McAdams. And yet 2/3 of the electorate has an opinion?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #114 on: August 04, 2020, 08:55:44 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on August 04, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
GA-06
North Star Opinion Research/Handel internal

McBath 48%
Handel 46%

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1290644125604368388

Handel was leading by 2 points in March.

Yikes, if her own internals have her down 2... this was always gonna be a stretch for Handel.

Oh - and no prez toplines either... again
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #115 on: August 05, 2020, 10:56:19 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on August 05, 2020, 08:48:46 AM
NC-08
brilliant corners/Timmons-Goodson internal

Hudson (R, inc.) 43%
Timmons-Goodson (D) 41%



What would the new NC-08 have voted in 2016?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #116 on: August 05, 2020, 05:38:21 PM »
Wow. Andy Kim (NJ-03) basically raised $500K in just July alone. Q3 reports are gonna be insane.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #117 on: August 06, 2020, 08:26:20 AM »
Yeah, re: CA25, if the poll has Biden essentially doing the same as Clinton in that district, I'd say it's definitely R-leaning
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #118 on: August 06, 2020, 11:04:10 AM »
I do believe, though, that Finkenauer is a stronger incumbent than people are assuming
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #119 on: August 06, 2020, 05:23:39 PM »
Hm, seems Cisneros is doing better than the CW
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #120 on: August 08, 2020, 01:22:25 PM »
If Trump is underwater nearly 15% in that district, I find it hard to imagine Biden is only winning by 5.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #121 on: August 12, 2020, 09:51:06 AM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 12, 2020, 08:57:50 AM

Pretty horrendous to release a poll showing yourself trailing in a district where polls in 2018 were off by astronomical margins in favor of both Hurd and Cruz.

You mean, in favor of Jones and O'Rourke?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #122 on: August 13, 2020, 08:39:28 AM »
Another NJ-02 poll. Appears Kennedy has a slight edge
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #123 on: August 14, 2020, 06:15:13 AM »
UT-04 and IL-13 are weird, esp considering we just got that poll with Londrigan up against Davis.

And McAdams has a ton more $$$ in UT-04 too, and the suburbs ain't getting any redder.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #124 on: August 14, 2020, 09:57:43 AM »
Webb (D) internal/GSG - VA-05

Good 44
Webb 42

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511974-internal-poll-shows-neck-and-neck-race-brewing-in-virginia-house-contest

Trump also only up by 2 here, in this Trump+13 district
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