2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[RI]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?

[The Free North]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?

People can also cross party lines so its extra useless

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The big unknown about Florida right now is Miami Dade.  Dems have A LOT of room for growth there.  High Election Day turnout there would seem to benefit them at this point.  Anyone know what's going on with turnout there?

Republicans will likely vote significantly more in Miami Dade too. They nearly outvoted dems in early voting, and election day voters are supposed to be way more Republican

[ExSky]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Doomers and Blues simply are not going to believe this and/or ignore it. This is a devastating sign in The Villages.

[wbrocks67]

What is the point in posting FL-at-large totals when it doesn't even include like 5/6 counties, including *MIAMI* for gods sake? It's an incomplete picture.

Also, for 50th time, it's truly astonishing to see people keep acting as if the NPA vote is just not there and simply going off of D/R totals

[pbrower2a]

FL Rs lead up to 56k

I was told that #RepublicansforBiden meant Biden had Florida in the bag.

Do you not understand that voter registration is not who you vote for?  

I most certainly do -- especially when there is much dissent within one of the Parties.  

[ExSky]

What is the point in posting FL-at-large totals when it doesn't even include like 5/6 counties, including *MIAMI* for gods sake? It's an incomplete picture.

Also, for 50th time, it's truly astonishing to see people keep acting as if the NPA vote is just not there and simply going off of D/R totals

Ignoring D heavy counties makes them feel better. Dems are blowing past their 2016 benchmarks and GOP are not going fast enough to pass or even match theirs.

[swf541]

What is the point in posting FL-at-large totals when it doesn't even include like 5/6 counties, including *MIAMI* for gods sake? It's an incomplete picture.

Also, for 50th time, it's truly astonishing to see people keep acting as if the NPA vote is just not there and simply going off of D/R totals

It's completely insane

Also insane to watch people completely ignore polling for areas and instead just shriek about partisan numbers.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/ReporterBlayne/status/1323654554865598465

[Illiniwek]

I love Steve Kornacki but they keep having him on every hour to say the same damn thing he has been saying all week. All battleground states were won by trump in 2016. Michigan and Wisconsin are out of reach. Biden needs just won of FL, GA, NC, TX, PA, or OH.

We need to get to the results so he has something different to talk about.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?

https://mobile.twitter.com/lionelmufasa/status/1323661205966344198

[ExSky]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?

NPA’s are not going to break to Trump this cycle, which is going to leave Sumter short of the +39 margin trump won by in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?

https://mobile.twitter.com/lionelmufasa/status/1323661205966344198

Yikes... that does... not look good for Trump even if we're just going off of purely D/R totals

[RI]

Some "results" from Guam (21% of precincts partially reporting):

Biden 54.86%
Trump 42.91%

https://gec.guam.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020ge-results-unofficial.pdf

[Bootes Void]

Some "results" from Guam (21% of precincts partially reporting):

Biden 54.86%
Trump 42.91%

https://gec.guam.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020ge-results-unofficial.pdf

How did Guam go in 2016?

[EJ24]

Does anybody *actually* know what's happening in Florida or is this all a bunch of assumption and conjecture?

It's clear to me that Republicans are having a huge turnout today, but I think literally everybody expected this. I can't make heads or tails out of NPA's and I don't really know how they vote.

And I'm not sure how you guys are coming up with these percentages Trump needs to hit.

[brucejoel99]

To be honest I'm surprised everyone is so focused on Florida when Pennsylvania will hands down be the most important state on election night 

Trump could end up winning FL but if he than turns around and loses Pennsylvania
this election would basically be over and Biden is most likely going to be our next president

I think it's more that people want the election to be done and over with by tonight.  If Biden wins Florida (or Georgia or NC), that will almost certainly be the case. 

I think if Biden wins Florida, the election is likely over. He'd need to run the table on all of the other states, and the polls would have to be even more wrong than in 2016 for him to carry Michigan and Wisconsin again

Yeah, if Biden wins FL, then that's pretty much the end of the road for Trump. On 538's interactive map, (non-Atlas) blue Florida equates to a 99% chance of winning for Biden.

[RI]

Some "results" from Guam (21% of precincts partially reporting):

Biden 54.86%
Trump 42.91%

https://gec.guam.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020ge-results-unofficial.pdf

How did Guam go in 2016?

Clinton 71.62%
Trump 24.17%

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?

People can also cross party lines so its extra useless

Exactly.  I expect Sumter to have >80% of its retiree turnout and most of them will be registered Republicans.  So the party turnout will look basically the same as 2016.

The difference is that a lot of those registered Republicans are going to vote for Joe Biden.  They're not going to change their party registration to reflect that!  Most of them probably didn't even decide this until the last few weeks.

So bedwetting over Sumter numbers being the same as 2016 is pointless.  Biden's advantage isn't "higher Dem turnout in deep-red counties that were near-100% turnout in 2016."  It's that some of those Republicans will vote for him because Trump is literally costing them their lives.

[Dr. Arch]

In WI, almost 100% of Madison absentee ballots have been returned, with more trickling in.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1323606947493457921

[swf541]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1323606947493457921

Now thats an amazing return rate

[Kleine Scheiße]

DOWN WITH MALARKEY

[bilaps]

Dems at this thread after massively obsessing on early voting trends: Don't look at the numbers (even though there's nothing else to look for right now). Sumter county pops out: LOOOOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS ITS BAD FOR TRUMP

[BudgieForce]

Some "results" from Guam (21% of precincts partially reporting):

Biden 54.86%
Trump 42.91%

https://gec.guam.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020ge-results-unofficial.pdf

Guam had over 30,000 voters in 2016, so I'm not going  read too much into 3500 votes.

[Illini Moderate]

Dems at this thread after massively obsessing on early voting trends: Don't look at the numbers (even though there's nothing else to look for right now). Sumter county pops out: LOOOOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS ITS BAD FOR TRUMP

A bit more nuance to the sentiment that you seem to have purposely overlooked