Black voters (Wapo/Ipsos): Biden +60

[wbrocks67]

They pulled a Monmouth though and did the whole definitely, probably, probably not, definitely not etc

Biden: 74% (48% definitely, 26% probably)
Trump: 14% (5% definitely, 9% probably)

Biden approval: 68/32 (+36)

Biden fav: 69/27 (+42)
Harris fav: 64/25 (+39)
Trump fav: 13/83 (-70)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/06/poll-biden-black-voters/https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2024/05/03/april-9-16-2024-washington-post-ipsos-poll-black-americans/

[wbrocks67]

The 'definitely not vote for' is probably the most telling here, and that's 16% for Biden but 76% for Trump

[GAinDC]

This looks much closer to reality than some of the other surveys floating around.

[Redban]

This looks much closer to reality than some of the other surveys floating around.

Trump at 14% nearly doubles his 2020 figure. Biden 74% is an 18% drop

As you concede that this looks much closer to reality, then you're conceding a big swing in Trump's favor

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This looks much closer to reality than some of the other surveys floating around.

Trump at 14% nearly doubles his 2020 figure. Biden 74% is an 18% drop

As you concede that this looks much closer to reality, then you're conceding a big swing in Trump's favor

We haven't voted yet and Trump is losing in ABC IPSOS poll you didn't comment on

[wbrocks67]

This looks much closer to reality than some of the other surveys floating around.

Trump at 14% nearly doubles his 2020 figure. Biden 74% is an 18% drop

As you concede that this looks much closer to reality, then you're conceding a big swing in Trump's favor

The 2020 exit poll was Biden 87, Trump 12.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This looks much closer to reality than some of the other surveys floating around.

Trump at 14% nearly doubles his 2020 figure. Biden 74% is an 18% drop

As you concede that this looks much closer to reality, then you're conceding a big swing in Trump's favor

The 2020 exit poll was Biden 87, Trump 12.

We haven't voted yet and Redban thinks  polls are end all be all they arent

The fact of the matter Trump has dropped in every single poll, the reason for this it's the SOTU bounce and Trump isn't winning primaries like he was on Super Tues

[Redban]

This looks much closer to reality than some of the other surveys floating around.

Trump at 14% nearly doubles his 2020 figure. Biden 74% is an 18% drop

As you concede that this looks much closer to reality, then you're conceding a big swing in Trump's favor

The 2020 exit poll was Biden 87, Trump 12.

Pew's validated-voter survey is Biden 92 / Trump 8

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It's not like black voters suddenly are going to vote for Trump more, it's just that more black Biden voters relative to black Trump voters will not turn out, reducing the margin. By how much, we don't know, that we will only know by november. Polls centering around specific demographics are unreliable and useless, esp since a lot of those demographic groups aren't homogenous.

[kwabbit]

It's not like black voters suddenly are going to vote for Trump more, it's just that more black Biden voters relative to black Trump voters will not turn out, reducing the margin. By how much, we don't know, that we will only know by november. Polls centering around specific demographics are unreliable and useless, esp since a lot of those demographic groups aren't homogenic.

2020 Biden Black voters can definitely vote for Trump more. A lot of the gradual weakening of Dem numbers with Black voters is turnover from 98% Dem seniors to 85% Dem youths, and some of it is differential turnout, but there is also persuasion going on. If Trump gains more than a few percent among Black voters, it will be from persuasion.

I can't claim to understand the mechanics of persuasion for every Clinton-Trump or Biden-Trump voter, but they have their reasons. It is extremely Atlas-brained to act like Trump's gains with non-Whites are due to extreme turnout changes and not persuasion. Even when persuasion is acknowledged it's dismissed as solely from incumbency a lot of the time.

[wbrocks67]

I'd say the biggest thing to gleam from this poll for Biden and Dems is as many have stated - black voters are clearly not gravitating towards Trump - he has an 83% unfavorability rating and has less of a possible vote share (14%) than RFK (20%) - so the key thing for Dems is that black voters that are drifting are more likely to either vote third party or just sit out altogether - so theres work to do there.

But these #s clearly show there is no surge towards Trump, as we knew the crosstabs with him getting 20-30% of the black vote were purely absurd.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump numbers are crashing and Redban thinks that Trump is gonna pull a rabbit out of it's hat, WE BLKS DONT LIKE TRUMP, it's just that simple

I wanna ask Redban whom rioted on J6 whites not blks or Latinx

[soundchaser]

But these #s clearly show there is no surge towards Trump, as we knew the crosstabs with him getting 20-30% of the black vote were purely absurd.

As has been evidenced by basically every election for the last two years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Between Trump toupee and Redban they are picking apart every poll because Trump numbers are crashing, it's obvious because you don't see Red avatars doing it anymore

[DrScholl]

13-83 is a disastrous approval rating and it's probably even worse than that since Trump is way overstated in polling.

This looks much closer to reality than some of the other surveys floating around.

Trump at 14% nearly doubles his 2020 figure. Biden 74% is an 18% drop

As you concede that this looks much closer to reality, then you're conceding a big swing in Trump's favor

You can't assume that undecideds won't show up so to say it's an 18% drop is inaccurate. And I don't know how many times I have to repeat this, but Trump can't become President based on polling. He actually has to win a real election! Real elections have shown Republicans doing poorly with the Black vote.

[President Johnson]

And this is probably still an understatement.

Nonetheless, Biden's major task here is turnout, not the margin.

[GAinDC]

Interesting that Biden has higher favorability than Harris

[President Johnson]

Interesting that Biden has higher favorability than Harris

Maybe just name recognition? Or they view Biden has having done more for the black community, because by nature the president is in the driver's seat.

[Dan the Roman]

It's not like black voters suddenly are going to vote for Trump more, it's just that more black Biden voters relative to black Trump voters will not turn out, reducing the margin. By how much, we don't know, that we will only know by november. Polls centering around specific demographics are unreliable and useless, esp since a lot of those demographic groups aren't homogenic.

2020 Biden Black voters can definitely vote for Trump more. A lot of the gradual weakening of Dem numbers with Black voters is turnover from 98% Dem seniors to 85% Dem youths, and some of it is differential turnout, but there is also persuasion going on. If Trump gains more than a few percent among Black voters, it will be from persuasion.

I can't claim to understand the mechanics of persuasion for every Clinton-Trump or Biden-Trump voter, but they have their reasons. It is extremely Atlas-brained to act like Trump's gains with non-Whites are due to extreme turnout changes and not persuasion. Even when persuasion is acknowledged it's dismissed as solely from incumbency a lot of the time.

A lot of it is reversion to the mean. Blacks should be a heavily Democratic constituency, but they should not be as heavily Democratic as they are. Currently, we have African Americans who agree with Republicans on every major issue and dislike Democrats, but still voting for them. When we are talking about going from 8% to 13%-17% we are still discussing the most conservative sixth of the African American electorate.

The GOP is almost guaranteed to substantially increase its African American support into the mid-teens over the next decade, and fail utterly to expand much beyond it.

I think this poll is fairly accurate. The absolute ceiling for the GOP is probably around 24% of the African American vote. A realistic target for a "good result" would be 16%.

I also think the focus on nonwhite voters is misplaced. It will matter on the margins, but more interesting is whether 2022 represented a high-water mark of high-income white support for Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not like black voters suddenly are going to vote for Trump more, it's just that more black Biden voters relative to black Trump voters will not turn out, reducing the margin. By how much, we don't know, that we will only know by november. Polls centering around specific demographics are unreliable and useless, esp since a lot of those demographic groups aren't homogenic.

2020 Biden Black voters can definitely vote for Trump more. A lot of the gradual weakening of Dem numbers with Black voters is turnover from 98% Dem seniors to 85% Dem youths, and some of it is differential turnout, but there is also persuasion going on. If Trump gains more than a few percent among Black voters, it will be from persuasion.

I can't claim to understand the mechanics of persuasion for every Clinton-Trump or Biden-Trump voter, but they have their reasons. It is extremely Atlas-brained to act like Trump's gains with non-Whites are due to extreme turnout changes and not persuasion. Even when persuasion is acknowledged it's dismissed as solely from incumbency a lot of the time.

A lot of it is reversion to the mean. Blacks should be a heavily Democratic constituency, but they should not be as heavily Democratic as they are. Currently, we have African Americans who agree with Republicans on every major issue and dislike Democrats, but still voting for them. When we are talking about going from 8% to 13%-17% we are still discussing the most conservative sixth of the African American electorate.

The GOP is almost guaranteed to substantially increase its African American support into the mid-teens over the next decade, and fail utterly to expand much beyond it.

I think this poll is fairly accurate. The absolute ceiling for the GOP is probably around 24% of the African American vote. A realistic target for a "good result" would be 16%.

I also think the focus on nonwhite voters is misplaced. It will matter on the margins, but more interesting is whether 2022 represented a high-water mark of high-income white support for Democrats.

Lol the Rs give us nothing

[Schiff for Senate]

Bullsh**t. Watch Biden still win the black vote by at least 70 points come November -- I'll be surprised if he doesn't, and I'd bet money he manages 65 at the very very least.

[Agafin]

I have Biden winning the black vote 81%-15% (4% third parties) so this is about right (considering Biden will win most undecideds). That would still represent a right-wing shift for black voters (as has been happening since 2012).

In fact there's a distinct possibility that black voters will swing right for the fourth consecutive election (2012, 2016, 2020 and now 2024). That could be enough to flip Georgia if white suburbanites don't trend further left.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I have Biden winning the black vote 81%-15% (4% third parties) so this is about right (considering Biden will win most undecideds). That would still represent a right-wing shift for black voters (as has been happening since 2012).

In fact there's a distinct possibility that black voters will swing right for the fourth consecutive election (2012, 2016, 2020 and now 2024). That could be enough to flip Georgia if white suburbanites don't trend further left.

That conclusion ignores the fact that tens of thousands of african-americans have moved to GA since 2020, while the amount of white residents has largely remained static.

[Agafin]

I have Biden winning the black vote 81%-15% (4% third parties) so this is about right (considering Biden will win most undecideds). That would still represent a right-wing shift for black voters (as has been happening since 2012).

In fact there's a distinct possibility that black voters will swing right for the fourth consecutive election (2012, 2016, 2020 and now 2024). That could be enough to flip Georgia if white suburbanites don't trend further left.

That conclusion ignores the fact that tens of thousands of african-americans have moved to GA since 2020, while the amount of white residents has largely remained static.

True but my prediction (81-15 or Biden +66) represents a big enough change from 2020 (87-12 or Biden +75) that it could still offset an increased black electorate.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I have Biden winning the black vote 81%-15% (4% third parties) so this is about right (considering Biden will win most undecideds). That would still represent a right-wing shift for black voters (as has been happening since 2012).

In fact there's a distinct possibility that black voters will swing right for the fourth consecutive election (2012, 2016, 2020 and now 2024). That could be enough to flip Georgia if white suburbanites don't trend further left.

I’d be surprised if it’s only +66. I do expect them to swing right though.