I have Biden winning the black vote 81%-15% (4% third parties) so this is about right (considering Biden will win most undecideds). That would still represent a right-wing shift for black voters (as has been happening since 2012).
In fact there's a distinct possibility that black voters will swing right for the fourth consecutive election (2012, 2016, 2020 and now 2024). That could be enough to flip Georgia if white suburbanites don't trend further left.
That conclusion ignores the fact that tens of thousands of african-americans have moved to GA since 2020, while the amount of white residents has largely remained static.
True but my prediction (81-15 or Biden +66) represents a big enough change from 2020 (87-12 or Biden +75) that it could still offset an increased black electorate.
what if white suburbanites in GA also swing left again?
That, I feel is the question of the election. If they swing left, Biden wins, probably by a 2020 margin or slightly larger.
Contra polls and speculation, the most probable pathway to a Trump victory is that they, not nonwhites, swing right, and 2022 turns out to have been a high-water mark. I don't feel that is impossible. The Haley polling indicates deep discomfort within the Democratic coalition among many of them, and while Trump appears to be an insurmountable obstacle, it is possible that their innate preferences for a Republican administration, even a pre-2020 Trump one will converge with their voter choice.
I am sure African American voters swinging another 3-4% Republican this cycle will be important to academic studies of a longer-term process, but I am less certain it will be relevant to the outcome of this election.
