FL-GOV 2018: Ron DeSantis vs. Andrew Gillum: Who wins?

[GP270watch]

 I never believed the large leads in the polls for Gillum and Nelson or that "swing voters" would come in and save the day. The truth is a lot of the population growth areas in the state is heavily Republican. They turnout their voters like crazy and they're very partisan. The Florida GOP runs up the score in these areas and it all adds up to a victory or a close election.

 Florida Democrats need to start registering more Democrats, getting bigger margins and squeezing everything they can out of the big counties, and they need to do something to at least compete in the rest of the state.
 

[GP270watch]

Well they can start with all their convicts that will now be permitted to flock there.

Ex felons don't vote. They've already studied this. And although African Americans are over incarcerated(unfairly), there are still way more white ex-felons in Florida who are likely Republican voters and also more likely to vote.

[GP270watch]

Florida is an embarrassment to this country.

 No it isn't. Too many people still refuse to vote. You can't blame the other side for voting. Sumter county(The Villages) had 96,497 registered voters and casted 74,956 ballots, a turnout of 77.68% in a freaking midterm. Which probably means that Republican turnout was in the 80's in that county. You'll see similar stories in other counties.

[GP270watch]

 Florida Democrats didn't turnout the vote. Obama got more votes in 2008 in Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade than Gillum got tonight. You might say that's not a fair comparison but in those 10 years many Republican counties have grown. Also tonight in some of those Republican counties people were turning out like it was a Presidential election.

[GP270watch]

The fault lies in Miami. Miami is a fake city with fake people and Gillum underpreformed HILLARY in that county that was happy to elect rat-person Shalala to congress.

 That was to be expected a little bit. Cubans didn't like Trump because of his Rubio disrespect and rhetoric but they came back home to two more generic Republcians in Scott and Desantis(who was backed by Trump) but toned it down after a while.

 The thing was not the percentage but the vote totals. I need to double check but if Gillum would have matched Obama's 2008 numbers in PBC, Miami-Dade, and Broward he would have won.

[GP270watch]

Gillum concedes.

[GP270watch]

 If the Florida Democratic Party registers more voters and turns them out they win and it's not that hard. They also have to get their early voting game to be even better. They're never going to beat a bunch of counties with smaller populations voting in a lot of places vs a few huge urban counties trying to cram a large vote on election day.

[GP270watch]

Wonder why there is such a difference between this unofficial link for Broward?

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=bro

And this one

https://enr.electionsfl.org/BRO/Summary/1985/

That's a difference of 66,716 ballots cast.

[GP270watch]

So, there was a Bradley effect again? This is the biggest disappointment; maybe Graham or Levine would have won.

 These were always close races. The polls were garbage, like always. Any competitive Florida statewide race is coming down to a few percentage points. Also anybody paying attention saw Republicans were very strong in early voting. People keep saying EV doesn't matter in Florida and they're wrong. It totally matters.

[GP270watch]

There's hasn't been any proof Gillum took a bribe.

To prove bribery, the Supreme Court has held that “payments are made in return for an explicit promise or undertaking by the official to perform an official act.”

[GP270watch]

Caputo just tweeted that Gillum is in recount territory. Nelson gaining votes and apparently Nikki Fried has taken the lead for Agriculture Commish.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060610810395930626

https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1060609676700778498