Is Donald Trump already finished?

[Seriously?]

Seriously?

I know you hate Donald Trump for whatever reason, MohamedChalid, but five months is an eternity in politics. Hillary! would not be finished right now if she were 5 points down.

How was President Dukakis' first term? President Romney for that matter? And that second Jimmy Carter term?

I swear it's a thread a day on Atlas with this same nonsense.

[Seriously?]

Seriously?

I know you hate Donald Trump for whatever reason, MohamedChalid, but five months is an eternity in politics. Hillary! would not be finished right now if she were 5 points down.

How was President Dukakis' first term? President Romney for that matter? And that second Jimmy Carter term?

I swear it's a thread a day on Atlas with this same nonsense.

If Vice President Bush went on record as needing to stop "all those Blacks who are rapists and criminals, like Willie Horton... some of them are good people, of course," made disparaging remarks about Dukakis's eyebrows and Greek heritage, said that NATO was basically useless if the Warsaw Pact wasn't broken up by the end of his first term, called for the dismantling of the Soviet Union, called for a trade war with Japan, and the GOP was fighting to unbind his delegates at the convention, party leaders refused to endorse him, and he had no funding... then that would be an apt comparison.

Yeah, basically this. Seriously? you're acting like Trump is just another politician with standard, commonplace problems. Modern American politics has never experienced incompetence of this magnitude and he can't just fix it overnight. His campaign is not going to be able to catch up now as he is so far behind. And yes, ad campaigns do work, and they work especially well when there the person doesn't fight back. Hillary dominating the airwaves like this will affect him. He is not invincible, as his poll numbers show.

The least you could do is not act like everyone is dumb or unreasonable for thinking Trump's campaign is in serious trouble, because it is. You just can't (or won't) see it for god knows what reasons.

You are being knee-jerk reactionary. At the end of the day, fundamentally Trump or Hillary! for that matter is no different than any other generic R or generic D candidate.

Once the conventions clear, you will have 35-39% of the electorate that are Democrats that will mainly vote for Hillary! 32-37% of the electorate that are Republicans that will mainly vote for Trump and the remaining 26-29% of the electorate that are Independents, who along with the D/R net split will more or less determine who the next POTUS is. (Sourcing: exit polls from 2004-2014)

Right now Hillary! is basically at the Obama 2012 final numbers with generally Registered Voter (not likely voter) polls and you are declaring the race over in June. It clearly is not. It's the ebb or flow of this particular cycle. It will flow back to Trump at some point as the parties unify.

The R/D split is pretty inelastic. Roughly 90% of Republicans don't vote for Democrats and roughly 90% Democrats don't vote for Republicans as a general rule if either of the partisans make it to the voting booth.

At the end of the day, who wins is generally determined by turnout (e.g. whether the electorate is even D/R (Bush 2004) vs. D+6 or D+7 (Obama 2008, 2012)). No one can say with any certainty what that number until the national polls start to tighten their LV screens after the conventions.

Additionally, if you look at the Fox News poll for example, the difference in spread was simply the difference in turnout. The poll that had the race basically a tie was just about an even sample. The poll that had a Hillary! lead was D+6 or +7. If anything, Independents slightly favor Trump in the polling.

[Seriously?]

You are being knee-jerk reactionary. At the end of the day, fundamentally Trump or Hillary! for that matter is no different than any other generic R or generic D candidate.

Trump is not even remotely the same as a generic R candidate. No matter how many times you say this, it will never be true. Not even close. I don't even know how you're coming to that conclusion.

It's just pure denial and deflection (from Seriously?).

Was the sky falling two weeks ago when Hillary! was losing to Trump on Atlas? Of course it was.

It was OMG! is Hillary! going to recover? Of course she did.

There are almost five months until the election. A five-point lead on either side, heck even a double-digit lead on either side is not insurmountable at this point in the cycle. Talk to me in late October, it's a different story. But the key state races remain competitive and these national polls don't even employ a LV screen right now.

I just find the level of the Trump is eeeeevil, so he can't win by you red avatars on here as laughable. The same was probably being said of Romney, McCain, Bush, etc. etc. etc. Get past the conventions into the general in mid-September and if the trend remains to be pushing away from Trump, I'll be the first (non-Hillary/Johnson) blue avatar to admit that it looks troubling. But for now, ummmm.... no.

[Seriously?]

He is not favourite, but he is not finished.

It will be interesting to see what happens with his campaign finances.

You have two competing factors.

1. Trump's ego at one of the most critical public moment of his life.

2  trumps tight-fisted Scottish background.

He wont sell a Trump Tower to pay for this.

His assets are tied to his sense of self, and he will go to the electorate for fund raising together with private wealthy individuals.

He wont be entirely self funded.

I am not writing him off just yet.

You're skipping over that he's likely broke/bankrupt or otherwise overstating his real net worth by two orders of magnitude.

Evidence of that?

[Seriously?]

You are being knee-jerk reactionary. At the end of the day, fundamentally Trump or Hillary! for that matter is no different than any other generic R or generic D candidate.

Trump is not even remotely the same as a generic R candidate. No matter how many times you say this, it will never be true. Not even close. I don't even know how you're coming to that conclusion.

It's just pure denial and deflection (from Seriously?).

Was the sky falling two weeks ago when Hillary! was losing to Trump on Atlas? Of course it was.
It was OMG! is Hillary! going to recover? Of course she did.

There are almost five months until the election. A five-point lead on either side, heck even a double-digit lead on either side is not insurmountable at this point in the cycle. Talk to me in late October, it's a different story. But the key state races remain competitive and these national polls don't even employ a LV screen right now.

I just find the level of the Trump is eeeeevil, so he can't win by you red avatars on here as laughable. The same was probably being said of Romney, McCain, Bush, etc. etc. etc. Get past the conventions into the general in mid-September and if the trend remains to be pushing away from Trump, I'll be the first (non-Hillary/Johnson) blue avatar to admit that it looks troubling. But for now, ummmm.... no.

If you are talking about when trump barely lead (by approx 0.2%) over Hillary on the RCP average, I can tell you that I was not one who was saying that the sky was falling.
I am on record in that thread telling others, that this was just a trump-bump due to him passing the delegate nomination number, and Hillary not securing her side yet.
..... And I was right.

In addition, Hillary will still get additional bump in the numbers once Sanders completely concedes. So her gap in polls will probably increase an additional 3 to 5 percentage points.

Basically, Virginia is saying that this is not anywhere near normal for the Republican presumptive nominee compared to prior elections. The GOP is divided. Current and previous high ranking Republicans in office (including prior Pub Presidents!) do not agree/support/will vote for trump.
Some Republicans and most of the electorate agree that trump is acting like a clown, a child, and/or someone severely sick with narcissism. A candidate (trump) is labeled by MANY in the electorate as bigoted, racist and Hitler-ish.
The list goes on, and on, and on.
All THIS LEVEL of rhetoric, is UNPRECENDENTED for a candidate (of either party)..... And it's ALL NEGATIVE !
So in conclusion, Virginia is right to say that you can't compare trump or his campaign to a generic R candidate, or prior election.

Of course you can. The driving fundamentals will be the same at the end of the day. Who gets out more voters. The only way the Democrats win is if they turn out more Democrats than Republicans, probably in the D+2, D+3 range. The only way the Republicans win is if they get closer to a D+1 or even electorate.

The question presented is whether Trump is "finished." The leftists and RINO elite have been declaring "peak Trump" for the past year now. They have been proven wrong time and time again.

You are obviously glossing over the negatives your own candidate has, much more than a traditional generic D as well, but that's an aside. Republicans loathe Hillary!, so much so that they can be realistically rallied together on the Trump side, even if some of them have to hold their noses.

With that said, however, you can not predict either the future or whether the Republican elite (as opposed to the Republican base) will unify a month down the road in Cleveland. As such, you can not write off Trump (or generic R) at this point in time. It is way too premature.