UK AV Referendum Poll

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...wow. I also recall him saying that Labour was acting trotskyist at the Barnsley by-election result. Leadership material? Really?

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ComRes has it at 60-40 for the No campaign.

Likely to change mind - 7%
Unlikely to change mind - 92%

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/30/cabinet-war-liberal-democrat-pact

When do we think Huhne's leadership bid will be announced? I also hate this meem that the Liberals would've preferenced Labour throughout the 50s, 60s, 70s. Jeremy Thorpe's Liberals were sooooo left-wing.

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Surely no one has suggested that the Liberals would have preferenced Labour in the 1950s? This campaign has been a carnival of stupid, but I think that would take the custard creams that get mentioned here on occasion.

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It's sort of what's being implied. If anything, the Tories were in government a lot because Labour made careless mistake after useless blunder after careless mistake. See: election 83, election 92, the 50s in general, et al. Hardly fair to blame FPTP for that...

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Wow, I didn't realise it was quite that bad.  Jeez, what a crappy system.  I thought the electoral college was awful!

The electoral college is really a warped, presidential version of FPTP. It's just that the US only has two parties so it works properly. When there's a significant 3rd candidate, it breaks down (Ralph Nader).

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I know that, which is why countries with more than two significant parties have no business using FPTP.

Or any majoritarian system, for that matter. We're being asked whether we want a system that doesn't fit Britain or a new system which also doesn't fit the country.

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The electoral college is really a warped, presidential version of FPTP. It's just that the US only has two parties so it works properly. When there's a significant 3rd candidate, it breaks down (Ralph Nader).

Nader never was and never could be a significant third candidate.

Significant in that he, arguably, swung Florida to Bush...

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The Sunday Times/YouGov says that voters think a Yes would hurt Dave slightly more than a No would hurt Clegg and a No vote would be slightly more likely to destablise the coalition. Wouldn't have expected that.

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/st20110501.pdf

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It's still got me annoyed how Huhne can even try and profess that he wants his party to be part of a progressive majority. As part of this coalition, he's part of the problem. I hope he'll man-up and resign, first thing on Friday morning, if he honestly thinks of himself as a progressive.

Although, he didn't have the guts to show up to the tuition vote, so I don't know if he'll have the guts to pull Clegg down.

AV's probably the only way Huhne's seat doesn't turn blue at the next election anyway.

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ComRes poll released at 10pm will show No leading with 66% of the vote.

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ComRes poll released at 10pm will show No leading with 66% of the vote.

....

This is good news, for Chris Huhne.

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YesToAV seem to have a very "if you support No, you're uneducated" tone. Very much a turn off for people.

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ICM
68% - NO
32% - YES

People aren't just telling Nick no, they're shouting it at him.

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ICM
68% - NO
32% - YES

People aren't just telling Nick no, they're shouting it at him.

What are they telling Miliband?

"You wouldn't have won under FPTP, you geeky wierdo."?

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ICM
68% - NO
32% - YES

People aren't just telling Nick no, they're shouting it at him.

What are they telling Miliband?

Does anyone care what Miliband thinks of this?

Well he is one of the most vocal supporters of AV.

No one cares what he has to say. He's pretty irrelevant...

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Daily Mail? Taking it too far? Who would've thought it...

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Does anyone care what Miliband thinks of this anything.

No, which is a good sign for Cameron I'd guess.

On what basis? Labour, under E-Mil, have been leading in near enough every poll this year; I doubt any Labour leader could've stopped Labour voters giving the Lib Dems a kicking,  via the AV referendum, after a year of provocation.

Ed Milliband just seems like a weak, uninspiring leader to me. From what I can tell he seems unable to catch any real media spot light, has very weak preformances during PMQs (of course much better than Nick Clegg who is beyond terrible) and the speeches I've seen from him seem mildly exciting at best.

I believe Ed has as much to do with Labour's strong polling numbers at the moment as he does with NO's poor one's. I saw the Swedish-left lead by Sahlin ahead of Reinfeldt's goverment by more than 10% in his early years, but in the end they still lost by 5% due to the fact that their strong showing in polls was built on disapproval of the Reinfeldt goverment rather than actual support for their own policies, or their own leader.

Now I'm not saying Milliband is Sahlin, she was out-right loathed while Ed seems to simply be irrelevant.   

Well, I guess this is the kind of leader AV gives us Labourites.

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So tomorrow the British will decide to remain under an unfair, undemocratic, primitive electoral system. Good for them.

It's worth noting that Harper wouldn't have got a majority monday if Canada used AV.

He would've still got another minority government though. Britain and Canada need PR and AV would make both our countries representation problems worse.

We're being offered two unfair and undemocratic electoral systems, so it's a poor result no matter if there's a yes or a no.

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YouGov has it at 60-40.

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BREAKING: Yes campaign surges ahead on the final night!

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@Antonio, I for one don't like FPTP, yet I have discovered that I like AV even less. It is (or has the potential to be) less proportional, even when people base their . Under AV the BNP hypothetically could poll 25% nationwide, but still win only 1 or 2 seats, because they'd be poisonous in terms of preferences. I can see a similar situation with the Greens or some more likable party. Australia seems to be the best case study.

A good example would be the Scottish Conservatives; the Conservatives could make a comeback but still be without seats under AV. Had the Holyrood election been under AV in 2007 (in the constituencies) the Tories are unlikely to have won any seats (they won 4) Playing around with the figures, the Tories could poll 30% in Scotland at Holyrood (I wish!) and still walk away 1 seat out of 73.

AV discourages a broad set of ideas and policies, bringing less choice for voters, in comparison to FPTP. It's awful.

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@Antonio, I for one don't like FPTP, yet I have discovered that I like AV even less. It is (or has the potential to be) less proportional, even when people base their . Under AV the BNP hypothetically could poll 25% nationwide, but still win only 1 or 2 seats, because they'd be poisonous in terms of preferences. I can see a similar situation with the Greens or some more likable party. Australia seems to be the best case study.

A good example would be the Scottish Conservatives; the Conservatives could make a comeback but still be without seats under AV. Had the Holyrood election been under AV in 2007 (in the constituencies) the Tories are unlikely to have won any seats (they won 4) Playing around with the figures, the Tories could poll 30% in Scotland at Holyrood (I wish!) and still walk away 1 seat out of 73.

AV discourages a broad set of ideas and policies, bringing less choice for voters, in comparison to FPTP. It's awful.

It may even be worse than that. Let's says there's a seat where the 'big 3' stand and the BNP. BNP finish last, which is great, but their second preferences are counted (and perhaps only theirs) putting a candidate over the line. Whose vote is the elected MP going to try and court throughout the parliament and at the next campaign? 

Exactly. I know France doesn't use AV, but I guess you could call it Sarkozy Syndrome.

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Apparently, some places aren't giving out referendum ballots, you have to ask for one. That's pretty awful...

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Apparently, some places aren't giving out referendum ballots, you have to ask for one. That's pretty awful...

where?

Got tweeted by a Sky News reporter earlier and some other people have tweeted it.

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The Family Guy mentality of the youth-driven Yes campaign (bit like the youth-driven 2010 LibDem election campaign).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YOh-rpvjYg

"Change. Because MPs are bad."
"How will AV fix the system?"
"David. Cameron."
"Will it make the system fairer?"
"Change. Hope. Fair."