Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

Quite chaotic, indeed. Although, it's normal for party congresses to be a bit chaotic if the parties have several wings and so on.

What's the likelihood of a snap election?

A snap election is very unlikely to happen because, as discussed earlier in the thread, it is impossible to call one without a cooperative President. Iohannis would do anything to prevent a snap election. The only way in which a snap election could be called is if the Parliament recalled him.

Right. So if USR continues to refuse to cooperate with PNL, do you think the PSD will likely comeback? That would be quite a turnaround of things.

PNL will continue to govern no matter what, because of Iohannis. If USR does not return to the coalition, PNL will govern in a minority together with the Hungarians indefinitely. PSD could back PNL in a confidence-and-supply agreement and get access to resources or it could just let PNL not be able to do anything in such a scenario.

[Mike88]

Quite chaotic, indeed. Although, it's normal for party congresses to be a bit chaotic if the parties have several wings and so on.

What's the likelihood of a snap election?

A snap election is very unlikely to happen because, as discussed earlier in the thread, it is impossible to call one without a cooperative President. Iohannis would do anything to prevent a snap election. The only way in which a snap election could be called is if the Parliament recalled him.

Right. So if USR continues to refuse to cooperate with PNL, do you think the PSD will likely comeback? That would be quite a turnaround of things.

PNL will continue to govern no matter what, because of Iohannis. If USR does not return to the coalition, PNL will govern in a minority together with the Hungarians indefinitely. PSD could back PNL in a confidence-and-supply agreement and get access to resources or it could just let PNL not be able to do anything in such a scenario.

So there's no chance of the PSD trying to form an alternative government without the approval of President Iohannis. He has the last word then, right?

[RGM2609]

Quite chaotic, indeed. Although, it's normal for party congresses to be a bit chaotic if the parties have several wings and so on.

What's the likelihood of a snap election?

A snap election is very unlikely to happen because, as discussed earlier in the thread, it is impossible to call one without a cooperative President. Iohannis would do anything to prevent a snap election. The only way in which a snap election could be called is if the Parliament recalled him.

Right. So if USR continues to refuse to cooperate with PNL, do you think the PSD will likely comeback? That would be quite a turnaround of things.

PNL will continue to govern no matter what, because of Iohannis. If USR does not return to the coalition, PNL will govern in a minority together with the Hungarians indefinitely. PSD could back PNL in a confidence-and-supply agreement and get access to resources or it could just let PNL not be able to do anything in such a scenario.

So there's no chance of the PSD trying to form an alternative government without the approval of President Iohannis. He has the last word then, right?

Yes

[Lechasseur]

It looks like Romania's going to become like Belgium in 2010-2011 where it could not form a government for ages

[RGM2609]

It looks like Romania's going to become like Belgium in 2010-2011 where it could not form a government for ages

Yes...it is sad really. Mayyybe this fall the lust for power will be too big and somebody will fold, but what about the next years?... I really do not want to think about what sort of government will be formed after 2024, because I have a vague feeling it will be PSD together with AUR and the new Dragnea party. And all because of the sheer incompetence of PNL, whose death we are witnessing as we speak. The similarities with PNTCD in the late 1990s are stunning.

[RGM2609]

In one of the most bizarre flip flops yet, Orban has announced he will write his resignation as Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies...but not submit it until a later date. He is probably aware that there is no majority in place to elect a replacement and the whole legislative process would shut down. He said he will actually resign once PNL has a majority in the Chamber to replace him, but after this who even knows. Anyway, Citu would have probably preferred for him to go away, as now he remains in a key position to sabotage the remainder of his government. He has also taken another loss today when he failed to prevent eccentric former TV host and now MEP Rares Bogdan from being First Deputy Leader of PNL, but that was probably to be expected given the momentum Citu is now riding following his victory.

[RGM2609]

So the Government is collapsing basically - 7 out of the 18 Ministries are unoccupied because the PNL Agriculture Minister Adrian Oros, the only one to support Orban for the PNL leadership, (was forced to) resign. It is unclear what shape will the Cabinet take as in a little more than 20 days, all the resigning Ministers need to replaced. With the Speakership also opening up, a major reshuffle is coming within the government.

Coming back to the PNL Congress, it is rare to see such a horrendous gathering of hypocrites. After torturing Romanians for over a year with their absurd restrictions, the PNLers have proven complete disregard themselves, having held an event indoors attended by thousands while the cases have risen beyond any reasonable estimate in Bucharest. And as if that was not enough, thousands of COVID cases in Bucharest were kept hidden until after the PNL Congress in order not to affect the event. Inside, no one distanced and almost no one wore masks, including the President, who forgot to get his mask back after his bland speech that bored everyone (except seemingly for former Education Minister Monica Anisie who, desperate to get her office back, acted as if she was at the WPK Congress, enthusiastically applauding and even crying while Iohannis spoke his platitudes).

The voting process was a mess, after a whole day of people booing each other. Delegates photographed their votes routinely and even showed them publicly. While this whole mess was happening inside, outside of the hall life went on in Romania. The abject management of the vaccination campaign resulted in Romania only being above Bulgaria in the number of vaccinated people, the internal campaign delayed Romania getting European money until yesterday, the liberalization of energy will cause increases of 20% in electricity and gas prices (which were already high), the inflation is at an all-time high and so is the public debt, the political instability has killed off the currency and so much more... Florin Citu has the chance to surpass Nicolae Vacaroiu as the worst Prime Minister of Romania, he just needs a little more time...

[RGM2609]

Where I think this is headed is a compromise - PSD helps Citu delay the motion only until after the PNL Congress in exchange for money.

So PSD has had a magical awakening after the PNL Congress and after intense writing it has finally come up with a motion of no confidence immediately after the Congress, but that's just a coincidence, right? Anyway, the date of voting the motion is October 5th and it is kind of unlikely even for PSD not to vote its own motion, but given the apetite they have shown for pathetic excuses, nothing would shock me.

[Lechasseur]

At anyrate at this point the PNL clearly deserve to lose government/the next election.

And I always had a soft spot for them up to this point.

[RGM2609]

At anyrate at this point the PNL clearly deserve to lose government/the next election.

And I always had a soft spot for them up to this point.

I am someone who has never voted PNL and never would have in any election even from before I got my voting right. But they managed to break even my very low expectations.

However, you said they deserve to lose the next election. I think you are optimistic in presuming they will exist by then in order to lose it. PNTCD and PDL were far stronger parties than PNL is right now, and yet they only barely survived to the next election only to get trounced and die quickly thereafter. I think this is a record PNL has all chances to break.

[Lechasseur]

At anyrate at this point the PNL clearly deserve to lose government/the next election.

And I always had a soft spot for them up to this point.

I am someone who has never voted PNL and never would have in any election even from before I got my voting right. But they managed to break even my very low expectations.

However, you said they deserve to lose the next election. I think you are optimistic in presuming they will exist by then in order to lose it. PNTCD and PDL were far stronger parties than PNL is right now, and yet they only barely survived to the next election only to get trounced and die quickly thereafter. I think this is a record PNL has all chances to break.

Yeah I can see that, it seems like it was Iohannis's popularity the one thing that got them anywhere (and i actually quite liked him until this fiasco), and it seems like he's screwing that up now

I agree they never had the natural strength of PNTCD or PDL (the former from my low knowledge of Romanian political history seems like it may have been most aligned with me ideologically)

[RGM2609]

At anyrate at this point the PNL clearly deserve to lose government/the next election.

And I always had a soft spot for them up to this point.

I am someone who has never voted PNL and never would have in any election even from before I got my voting right. But they managed to break even my very low expectations.

However, you said they deserve to lose the next election. I think you are optimistic in presuming they will exist by then in order to lose it. PNTCD and PDL were far stronger parties than PNL is right now, and yet they only barely survived to the next election only to get trounced and die quickly thereafter. I think this is a record PNL has all chances to break.

Yeah I can see that, it seems like it was Iohannis's popularity the one thing that got them anywhere (and i actually quite liked him until this fiasco), and it seems like he's screwing that up now

I agree they never had the natural strength of PNTCD or PDL (the former from my low knowledge of Romanian political history seems like it may have been most aligned with me ideologically)

Yes, PNTCD (which I think was the most aligned ideologically with you too if you are some kind of moderate conservative) and PDL were strong parties who were basically victims of the bad times in which they came to power. They won elections they would have been better off losing. The 2009 presidential election was such a bloody obvious poisoned chalice I simply can't believe Basescu didn't see it. The situation right now is complicated, but it is nowhere near that bad, and PNL is just unravelling because of their greed and incompetence. They didn't even have such a strong base in the first place, they never got 30% in their entire existence.

[Lechasseur]

At anyrate at this point the PNL clearly deserve to lose government/the next election.

And I always had a soft spot for them up to this point.

I am someone who has never voted PNL and never would have in any election even from before I got my voting right. But they managed to break even my very low expectations.

However, you said they deserve to lose the next election. I think you are optimistic in presuming they will exist by then in order to lose it. PNTCD and PDL were far stronger parties than PNL is right now, and yet they only barely survived to the next election only to get trounced and die quickly thereafter. I think this is a record PNL has all chances to break.

Yeah I can see that, it seems like it was Iohannis's popularity the one thing that got them anywhere (and i actually quite liked him until this fiasco), and it seems like he's screwing that up now

I agree they never had the natural strength of PNTCD or PDL (the former from my low knowledge of Romanian political history seems like it may have been most aligned with me ideologically)

Yes, PNTCD (which I think was the most aligned ideologically with you too if you are some kind of moderate conservative) and PDL were strong parties who were basically victims of the bad times in which they came to power. They won elections they would have been better off losing. The 2009 presidential election was such a bloody obvious poisoned chalice I simply can't believe Basescu didn't see it. The situation right now is complicated, but it is nowhere near that bad, and PNL is just unravelling because of their greed and incompetence. They didn't even have such a strong base in the first place, they never got 30% in their entire existence.

My understanding is the PNTCD were Christian Democrats (which I identify myself as), PDL were more generic conservatives, and PNL were historically right-liberals, correct?

Well, tbf, it basically seems like until the last decade every election was basically a poisened chalice in Romania, so you have to win at some point even if there are bad consequences. No point in existing if you're never in power.

But yeah I agree, PNL is the only one of the bunch where their demise is totally their fault.

[RGM2609]

At anyrate at this point the PNL clearly deserve to lose government/the next election.

And I always had a soft spot for them up to this point.

I am someone who has never voted PNL and never would have in any election even from before I got my voting right. But they managed to break even my very low expectations.

However, you said they deserve to lose the next election. I think you are optimistic in presuming they will exist by then in order to lose it. PNTCD and PDL were far stronger parties than PNL is right now, and yet they only barely survived to the next election only to get trounced and die quickly thereafter. I think this is a record PNL has all chances to break.

Yeah I can see that, it seems like it was Iohannis's popularity the one thing that got them anywhere (and i actually quite liked him until this fiasco), and it seems like he's screwing that up now

I agree they never had the natural strength of PNTCD or PDL (the former from my low knowledge of Romanian political history seems like it may have been most aligned with me ideologically)

Yes, PNTCD (which I think was the most aligned ideologically with you too if you are some kind of moderate conservative) and PDL were strong parties who were basically victims of the bad times in which they came to power. They won elections they would have been better off losing. The 2009 presidential election was such a bloody obvious poisoned chalice I simply can't believe Basescu didn't see it. The situation right now is complicated, but it is nowhere near that bad, and PNL is just unravelling because of their greed and incompetence. They didn't even have such a strong base in the first place, they never got 30% in their entire existence.

My understanding is the PNTCD were Christian Democrats (which I identify myself as), PDL were more generic conservatives, and PNL were historically right-liberals, correct?

Well, tbf, it basically seems like until the last decade every election was basically a poisened chalice in Romania, so you have to win at some point even if there are bad consequences. No point in existing if you're never in power.

But yeah I agree, PNL is the only one of the bunch where their demise is totally their fault.

Yes, PNTCD were Christian Democrats (a pretty moderate version), PDL ran as a populist right party but switched to generic conservatism after the austerity measures and PNL was an liberal, almost libertarian party until being left alone at the pie dilluted their identity.

I would say that the only actually poisoned chalices were 1996 and the whole 2008-2009 cycle. The other ones could have been survived.

[Lechasseur]

So given you think that PNL won't exist much longer, what do you think replaces it? How does the Romanian political landscape get reshaped?

[RGM2609]

So given you think that PNL won't exist much longer, what do you think replaces it? How does the Romanian political landscape get reshaped?

Hmm, usually when a party collapses, its main alternative has a lot to gain. In this case, USR-PLUS will absorb a lot of the PNL electorate, however many PNL politicians would not be able to find into such a party. I could see some ex-PDLers, maybe even Boc after 2024, joining PMP and reviving it into passing the threshold. Unless he gets elected PNL leader again, Ludovic Orban is also someone who could form a small party out of the PNL ashes, although it would be one with the goal of passing the 5% threshold rather than governing. A lot of the human resources of the party will return to where they came from through - PSD.

[RGM2609]

USR leadership result -

Dacian Ciolos - 50,9%
Dan Barna - 49,1%

This is an upset as few people gave Ciolos any chance a few months ago. It would seem like factionalism is not as strong as previously expected and the disastrous, unpopular leadership by Barna, who lost to Viorica Dancila of all people, has managed to overwrite the qualms of many members of the former USR about voting for the leader of the former PLUS. What comes next will be determined when the National Bureau is elected, as it will be elected by delegates instead of all members. It is entirely possible that Barna loyalists could win a majority in the Bureau and still have a lot of control over the party despite Ciolos being the leader of the party.

[Beagle]

A surprise, to be sure, but a welcome one. Is Cioloș expected to quit Brussels now? Is there anything in the grumblings about the electronic voting system?

[RGM2609]

A surprise, to be sure, but a welcome one. Is Cioloș expected to quit Brussels now? Is there anything in the grumblings about the electronic voting system?

Yes, Ciolos has promised to resign from the Leadership of Renew Europe, though he is not planning to resign as a member of the European Parliament too. And yes, the electronic voting system was a mess, with the whole process even having to get restarted in the first round due to various mishaps. However, the fact that all people in key positions related to the voting process were Barna cronies prevents him from credibly claiming fraud, despite the close margin.

[RGM2609]

USR has elected its National Bureau too and it is not a good outcome for Ciolos - 14 out of the 24 members of the leading body of the party are from the Barna camp. This outcome returns the party to the days when its leader was the now-Mayor of Bucharest Nicusor Dan, but the real control rested in the majority in the Bureau, which was controlled by Barna and former Minister of European Funds Cristian Ghinea. It did not end well. Hopefully, the two sides will be able to cooperate, or Ciolos will manage to get some defections. Otherwise, it will not end well.

[RGM2609]

Soo, with 281 votes of no confidence, 47 more than required, and all PSD, USR and AUR MPs voting in favor of the motion, the Citu government is now history. PNL is getting ready to govern by itself, with or without parliamentary support from any of the oyher parties. Citu has stated that in any circumstances, USR will not be coming back to government. Now, it's President Iohannis's turn, as he has to appoint another Prime Minister who can not be Citu from the first try as the Parliament has already rejected him. It remains to be seen who will be the first PM candidate and whether he will even reach a vote.

[Beagle]

What happens with the 2022 budget now or will Romania dispense with such formalities?

[RGM2609]

What happens with the 2022 budget now or will Romania dispense with such formalities?

The Romanian budgetary creation was already such a dragged out and idiotic process that it usually starts in February of the new year and ends in April-May. Now, I don't even know, it all depends on what the political situation will be. If a fully-powered PNL government exists, it will probably just pass the budget through an Emergency Ordonance and be done with it. If a lame duck government has to do it, it would be an unprecedented situation with unforeseeable consequences, but the most realistic outcome is it passes after PSD stacks it with pork.

[RGM2609]

Also 40 MPs have demanded the installation of Ludovic Orban as Prime Minister, Orban has declared his work of 30 years in PNL to be "wasted" and he has also said that "I will form another party if PNL stops representing the liberal values I believe in". That was clearly a threat, and given how much of a failure today has been for Citu and Iohannis, with the situation unlikely to get better in the following months, I think it is only a matter of time until Orban either leaves PNL with his supporters or stages a coup inside the party.

[RGM2609]

President Iohannis and his lackeys in PNL have now proclaimed that no negotiation with USR will be possible. That is also because, beyond already known reasons, a majority PNL-Iohannis+USR+UDMR does not exist, and the coalition would have to rely on Orban's aforementioned 40 MPs. The President is trying to revive USL and is placing all bets on that, but as long as PNL is in power, he does not care if it has a majority or not.