The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[IceSpear]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

He'd be about as relevant as Jim Gilmore was.

[IceSpear]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

He'd be about as relevant as Jim Gilmore was.

What do you mean by "relevant"?  Will get about as many votes?  Will get about as much media coverage?

If Trump has one and only one challenger who's able to get on the primary ballot in more than a couple of states, then said challenger is the de facto non-Trump option in the primary, and will probably get a non-negligible number of votes, presumably many more than Gilmore got.  Now maybe that's only ~10%.  I don't know.  But that's still way more than Gilmore.

Now if there's a large field of challengers to Trump, then yeah, maybe Cuban is only getting ~1%.  But I don't think we're likely to get a slew of challengers.  Maybe one or two.

Cuban is a joke. Even the small chunk of anti-Trump Republicans and the even smaller chunk of those that will actually vote in the primary likely wouldn't vote for him.

[IceSpear]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

He'd be about as relevant as Jim Gilmore was.

What do you mean by "relevant"?  Will get about as many votes?  Will get about as much media coverage?

If Trump has one and only one challenger who's able to get on the primary ballot in more than a couple of states, then said challenger is the de facto non-Trump option in the primary, and will probably get a non-negligible number of votes, presumably many more than Gilmore got.  Now maybe that's only ~10%.  I don't know.  But that's still way more than Gilmore.

Now if there's a large field of challengers to Trump, then yeah, maybe Cuban is only getting ~1%.  But I don't think we're likely to get a slew of challengers.  Maybe one or two.

Cuban is a joke. Even the small chunk of anti-Trump Republicans and the even smaller chunk of those that will actually vote in the primary likely wouldn't vote for him.

I agree, he'd get smoked. People overestimate the number of anti-Trump Republicans. They overestimated them in the 2016 primary, they overestimated them in the 2016 general with whatever Evan McMullin and Gary Johnson were doing, and they're overestimating them now. And Mark Cuban as the flag-bearer of the NeverTrump movement? He's irrelevant. If you're going to go down fighting, at least try to get someone like John Kasich.

Yep. Trump won 90% of Republicans. Identical to McCain and only 3% less than Romney.

[IceSpear]

Jason Kander's doing an event in Iowa right now:

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/w4s-fundraiser-meet-greet-w-jason-kander-tickets-39891029142

I'd consider supporting him. He's a pretty intriguing candidate. Would have to see how he performs in the big leagues though.

[IceSpear]

I wish people would stop asking Biden about 2020. He shouldn't be encouraged to run.

Don't hold your breath. Biden is a media darling. They were practically on their hands and knees constantly begging him to run against their nemesis Hillary in mid-late 2015, lol.

[IceSpear]

Is there seriously a chance that Tom Steyer is announcing his 2020 candidacy on Monday?

What would the implications be of that? Would others jump in too? Would campaign season officially begin - at least, for people not participating in the midterms?

lol no. Nobody would care, except to the extent he becomes a punchline like Delaney.

[IceSpear]

NBC News correspondent Peter Alexander tweets this:

https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/950509091721502720

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A Winfrey vs. Trump election might well be the very beginning of the end of democracy in America.

Trump's nomination and election already did that.

[IceSpear]

NBC News correspondent Peter Alexander tweets this:

https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/950509091721502720

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A Winfrey vs. Trump election might well be the very beginning of the end of democracy in America.

Trump's nomination and election already did that.

No, it is seen as a freak fluke right now.

Nah, the precedent has already been set. Even if he loses and things go back to "normalcy" after 2020, it's only a matter of time before another Trump (potentially an even worse one) comes later down the line.