FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[Calthrina950]

Rep. Stephanie Murphy 'seriously considering' bid to unseat Rubio

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/24/florida-murphy-rubio-senate-2022-471402

Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy is seriously considering a bid to unseat Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2022 reelection, announcing Wednesday that she’s launching a statewide listening tour and has hired a top Democratic operative to manage the effort.

Murphy, 42, has been elected three times to one of Florida’s most competitive congressional districts in Orlando, and first won the seat by knocking out 12-term incumbent GOP Rep. John Mica when few thought she could. It was a giant-killer act that Democrats hope she can repeat if she takes on Rubio, widely seen as a hard-to-beat incumbent.

“I know what it takes to defeat a powerful incumbent because I’ve done it. I know what it takes to develop the fundraising and grassroots operation — that machine to win in a swing district — because I’ve done it three times,” Murphy told POLITICO in announcing her new initiative, called “Cast Forward with Stephanie Murphy.”

The announcement was paired with an introductory biographical ad on YouTube where Murphy describes herself as “a patriot, not a politician.”

Murphy, acknowledging she’s “seriously considering” a senate bid in either 2022 or 2024 when GOP Sen. Rick Scott is up for reelection, said her initiative is designed to “regroup, refocus, and reenergize Florida Democrats” who have watched Republicans out-organize, out-message and out-vote them, turning the once-purple swing state into a reddish battleground.

Murphy's district isn't as competitive anymore as she makes it out to be. She won reelection by 12%, and the district was handily carried by Biden. Gillum and Nelson both won her district in 2018 as well without any difficulty.

[Calthrina950]

Per Wikipedia, Marco Rubio has announced on Facebook that he will run again.

Can any Democrat make this competitive?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz or Corrine Brown

No lol

Debbie Wasserman Schultz would lose by 50 and I'd be right there voting against her.

As for Brown, she has too much baggage, including her felony fraud conviction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrine_Brown#Political_controversies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrine_Brown#Felony_fraud_conviction

Corrine Brown is a FL Dem-style bad outcome just waiting to happen, if she gets the nod for a statewide run.

Brown's legal troubles are why she lost her seat to Al Lawson in 2016. And during her time in Congress, she was one of the most ignorant and self-serving Representatives. I recall watching a YouTube clip of her infamous "Go Gators" speech on the House floor from about a decade or so ago. Her political career is finished, and if she were somehow the Democratic nominee, she would lose by close to double digits.

[Calthrina950]

Per Wikipedia, Marco Rubio has announced on Facebook that he will run again.

Can any Democrat make this competitive?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz or Corrine Brown

No lol

Debbie Wasserman Schultz would lose by 50 and I'd be right there voting against her.

As for Brown, she has too much baggage, including her felony fraud conviction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrine_Brown#Political_controversies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrine_Brown#Felony_fraud_conviction

Corrine Brown is a FL Dem-style bad outcome just waiting to happen, if she gets the nod for a statewide run.

Brown's legal troubles are why she lost her seat to Al Lawson in 2016. And during her time in Congress, she was one of the most ignorant and self-serving Representatives. I recall watching a YouTube clip of her infamous "Go Gators" speech on the House floor from about a decade or so ago. Her political career is finished, and if she were somehow the Democratic nominee, she would lose by close to double digits.

She would lose by double digits. It's a very good thing that she won't be our nominee.

I hesitated to go that far, because Florida, while certainly a Republican state, is still polarized enough that it would be difficult for any candidate now to win it by double digits. But with Brown, you may very well be right. Of course, she won't be the nominee as you said, so there won't be any worry about it.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/SMurphyCongress/status/1364708585670930439

She will lose, although she's probably one of the better Democratic candidates that could run at this point. My hunch is that Rubio is going to win by mid to high single digits, like he did in 2016.

[Calthrina950]

Rubio will win. I, of course, hope that the Dems run Debbie Wasserman Schultz. A 70-30 win would be nice.

But if the D's want to keep it close, they can try and hope Rubio gets a primary challenge for not being conservative enough, and then run Murphy or take someone off the bench since they won't win anyway (Nelson or Graham).

Ironically enough, this kind of result did happen in Florida for a Republican Senator-back in 1994, when Connie Mack defeated Hillary Clinton's younger brother, Hugh Rodham, 70-30%, and won every single county:

Obviously, a result like this would be impossible to duplicate in today's polarized environment. Rubio will more than likely win by around high single digits. An 8% margin of victory for him, like that which he obtained in 2016, is very plausible.

[Calthrina950]

Demings will lose. She might keep Rubio within 5%, but an actual victory, especially in a Democratic midterm and in a Republican-leaning state like Florida, is hard to envision.

[Calthrina950]

Bc she's basically the antithesis (or closest) of a Democratic candidate could be to the GOP's talking points (defund the police, socialism, etc.)

Err.... Val Demings is a reliable liberal and literally served as House impeachment manager in Trump's impeachment trial. She’s very easy to paint as some out-of-touch partisan and would have close to zero crossover appeal in a GE. The idea that Republicans won’t be able to paint her as a career politician who embodies "GOP talking points" is ludicrous.

The only worthwhile attack the GOP has right now that made a difference was socialism and crime, not really 'career politician'. And Demings is clearly not a socialist, and her police record shows you can't hit her on crime, really.

To say she has 'zero crossover appeal' in the GE is ridiculous

Demings is probably one of the better possible candidates who Democrats could nominate, but after seeing how Florida voted in 2018 and 2020, and taking into consideration that next year will be a Democratic midterm and that Rubio is a relatively popular incumbent, I'm still not sure how she's going to find the votes for victory. This race is Lean/Likely R.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rubio-demings-2022-showdown-could-become-most-expensive-senate-race-ever.amp

Not that it matters much for the outcome. Jaime Harrison raised unprecedented amounts of money for the 2020 senate election and still couldn't even crack the Republicans' 54% freiwall in South Carolina.

Citizens United has turned out to have far less of an impact upon electoral outcomes then had initially been feared. Money doesn't always buy elections, and money cannot overcome partisan conditions that are very antagonistic to one party or the other.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rubio-demings-2022-showdown-could-become-most-expensive-senate-race-ever.amp

Not that it matters much for the outcome. Jaime Harrison raised unprecedented amounts of money for the 2020 senate election and still couldn't even crack the Republicans' 54% freiwall in South Carolina.

Citizens United has turned out to have far less of an impact upon electoral outcomes then had initially been feared. Money doesn't always buy elections, and money cannot overcome partisan conditions that are very antagonistic to one party or the other.

Citizens United increased partisan polarization. In that respect, it has helped Republicans.

Partisan polarization was on the rise long before Citizens United was handed down. I'd say that we can trace it to the rise of the Religious Right in the 1970s, the Republican Revolution of 1994, and the rise of both talk radio and Fox News.

[Calthrina950]

I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently

I don't think Rubio is going to win Miami-Dade County. At best, he will make it as close as Trump did last year, and as he himself did in 2010 and 2016 (so an ~5-8% loss). I also expect Demings to win Seminole and Duval Counties, and to have a fighting shot at Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. She's not going to lose by double digits, and I think it's more likely that she keeps the margin of defeat respectable for next year.

[Calthrina950]

I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently

I don't think Rubio is going to win Miami-Dade County. At best, he will make it as close as Trump did last year, and as he himself did in 2010 and 2016 (so an ~5-8% loss). I also expect Demings to win Seminole and Duval Counties, and to have a fighting shot at Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. She's not going to lose by double digits, and I think it's more likely that she keeps the margin of defeat respectable for next year.

Demings is favored to win Hillsborough- the GOP is trying to have a reset there(although that might not work) and candidate quality is still important but the county leans Democratic overall. Pinellas could swing either way, I don't think saying a fighting chance is accurate for Demings. However, none of this will push Demings to the top unless she can run up the score in South Florida and in the blue areas of Central Florida and North Florida and narrow losing margins in the red exurbs of Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and North Florida. Everywhere matters in Florida.

I certainly don't think Demings is going to win, but it's not a stretch to say that her performance could very well be a respectable one. I agree with you that she will probably carry Hillsborough County, and I understand what you're saying about Pinellas County, although I said she had a "fighting chance" because that county is usually very tight between the two parties, unless if there's a blowout.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1582521103477788672

I actually watched a clip of that particular exchange. Demings, whether you agree with her or not, is clearly passionate and genuine about her beliefs.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1582521103477788672

I actually watched a clip of that particular exchange. Demings, whether you agree with her or not, is clearly passionate and genuine about her beliefs.

Demings is a RADICAL. The 15-Week Abortion Ban is "normal" in many of Countries of the world except of course in the United States. Germany, France, you name it have all Abortion Restrictions.

Demings came over as too angry.

Again, I don't agree with Demings on these issues. I was saying that she's passionate about what she believes.

[Calthrina950]

I will say that this attack by Demings against Rubio, over the gun violence issue, stood out to me:

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1582519070867722240

This and the abortion clip are the moments that led for me to say that Demings is very passionate about the issues that she believes in. I will also say that this particular moment reminded of when Cameron Kasky savaged Rubio at that CNN townhall back in 2018, in the aftermath of the Parkland shooting. That particular townhall was a disaster for Rubio, who was absolutely savaged by the Parkland students, parents, and teachers (along with Dana Loesch). Of course, they were also very friendly and receptive to Bill Nelson, Ted Deutch, and now disgraced ex Broward County Sheriff Steve Israel, with whom they aligned. Rubio did much better against Demings than he did against Kasky and the others at the townhall, but that wasn't difficult to do.

[Calthrina950]

I will say that this attack by Demings against Rubio, over the gun violence issue, stood out to me:

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1582519070867722240

This and the abortion clip are the moments that led for me to say that Demings is very passionate about the issues that she believes in. I will also say that this particular moment reminded of when Cameron Kasky savaged Rubio at that CNN townhall back in 2018, in the aftermath of the Parkland shooting. That particular townhall was a disaster for Rubio, who was absolutely savaged by the Parkland students, parents, and teachers (along with Dana Loesch). Of course, they were also very friendly and receptive to Bill Nelson, Ted Deutch, and now disgraced ex Broward County Sheriff Steve Israel, with whom they aligned. Rubio did much better against Demings than he did against Kasky and the others at the townhall, but that wasn't difficult to do.

The overwhelming Majority of Florida Voters though are citing Inflation/Cost of Living/Gas Prices as Issues.
So, while passionate (I grant you that) Demings picked the wrong issues. She ain't going to change overall mood from FL Voters.
Rubio consistently tied her to Biden and Biden is a big liability for Demings since he only has a 41 % JA in FL.

I certainly agree that the economy is a more important issue than abortion or gun control, and there was another moment in the debate where Demings asked why Rubio kept on talking about a "barrel of oil", or something to that effect.

[Calthrina950]

If this was even the FL of 2016 or 2018, Demings would have a real shot IMO.

2018 I definitely agree with. She's running a much better campaign than Bill Nelson.

I still don't understand why Biden selected Harris as his running mate over her. Demings would have given him credibility on the law and order issue, and is clearly a better debater than Harris.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JavonAPrice/status/1583432189265338368

Man do liberals hate Florida.

They hate Florida because they can't understand why a state with such a large and diverse population is not Safe D. But Joy Reid is probably the most partisan host on MSNBC, and has a tendency of saying outrageous things. She's also someone who's been accused of homophobia in the past, if I'm not mistaken.

[Calthrina950]

Of course Demings looks better now than Harris, but DEMINGS can run against Rick Scott if she loses and this race hasn't been called for Rubio, yet, running in 24 is much better than 22 in a state like FL because Biden is on the ballot, as long as there aren't anymore Hurricane IAN and I doubt there is gonna be one anytime soon

That's why Newsom keeps coming up, everyone doesn't like Harris but let's remember the Biden fans like President Johnson on the forum said Harris , she could of been a star if she enforcement the border and she didn't

It won't take much for DEMINGS or Gwen Graham to defeat Rick Scott in 24 Rubio wins even in 2016 because he takes away Ds natural advantage with Latino's

I definitely agree regarding why Rubio is so tough to beat (by winning just enough Dem Latino voters) - which is why his senate races seem to be fool's gold for Dems. That said- I think he is weakens to some extent with each election.

Demings is a more formidable candidate than either Murphy or Meek (the two prior Democratic nominees), and certainly more so than Crist (who she shares a ballot with this year). But Rubio remains a decently popular incumbent, it is a Republican-leaning year in a Republican-leaning state, and he will be benefited by DeSantis' coattails. I imagine that Rubio will improve in Southeast Florida compared to 2016, especially since Demings is not from that part of the state.