Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Rs get throttled in Midterms all the Rs lose except DeSantis and Abbott after they blocked the Commission

No more thinking we can't win wave insurence seats, everything is up in the air in H and S wise

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1398703274061086721

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1398703274061086721

I don't know how this breaks down among different groups of Hispanic voters... but I would expect Cuban-Americans to start getting cold feet about the insurrectionists. 

[pbrower2a]

Enten explains it this way: Hispanics tend to swing toward an incumbent in a race involving an incumbent after swinging toward a the party out of office in an open-seat election. 

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1398703274061086721

I don't know how this breaks down among different groups of Hispanic voters... but I would expect Cuban-Americans to start getting cold feet about the insurrectionists. 

I honestly think the gains are mainly among Mexican-Americans. If anything, Biden turned out to be more liberal and left leaning than expected during the 2020 campaign. If Cubans didn't vote for him running as a moderate because of "muh socialism", they surely won't approve him now. Not to mention the president's efforts to normalize relations with the Cuban government again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Enten explains it this way: Hispanics tend to swing toward an incumbent in a race involving an incumbent after swinging toward a the party out of office in an open-seat election. 

You do know Biden Approvals haven't changed much since the Election 53/39% that means a 303 not 375 or 415 EC map, right?

[pbrower2a]

It was a 51.26% - 46.80% spread in the vote. Electoral gains among Mexican-Americans for Democrats consolidate Arizona and Nevada and make Texas closer. The Republicans may have to expend money and campaign time in Texas just to hold the one state it absolutely cannot afford to lose.. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying that D's should or shouldn't expand the Map, but they should expect a 303 map on Election 2022 and Manchin should get rid of Filibuster and pass voting rights and DC Statehood, but we are still in a Pandemic type Recession, we can't expect a boom Economy and have an extremely large Electoral victory.

Manchin not getting rid of Filibuster is making things worst not better and once the gerrymandering begins we are locked out for a decade in H

That's exactly what Beto have been saying all along

QU polls showing 9 pt Generic ballot leads must be taken with a grain of salt they use RV instead of LV until the Election season, it's probably plus 2.5 D, in that scenario D's replicate especially in Senate a 52/48 map

[Progressive Pessimist]

Enten explains it this way: Hispanics tend to swing toward an incumbent in a race involving an incumbent after swinging toward a the party out of office in an open-seat election. 

This does seem to be a pattern, among most voters of color actually. I just think it's too early to somehow think this will be inevitable on top of the polling industry not yet earning trust back.

Still, even with all that, I don't think we should anticipate any Democratic nominee or President to ever do as well as Obama did with most voters of color. Let's keep our expectations grounded.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Enten explains it this way: Hispanics tend to swing toward an incumbent in a race involving an incumbent after swinging toward a the party out of office in an open-seat election.  

This does seem to be a pattern, among most voters of color actually. I just think it's too early to somehow think this will be inevitable on top of the polling industry not yet earning trust back.

Still, even with all that, I don't think we should anticipate any Democratic nominee or President to ever do as well as Obama did with most voters of color. Let's keep our expectations grounded.

The Economy is improving all the time, we don't know what to expect in 2022/2024, Biden will win a landslide in 2024/ Covid will be over by 2024/ not 2022 as we hoped

But, Manchin needs the break the Filibuster to allow HR 1 DC Statehood and Commission passed a Trifecta isn't guarenteed in 2022

Biden can win a 375 not a 415 Election in 2024 if the Covid virus is Eradicated

[pbrower2a]

An incumbent President can lose support even with an improving economy. Obama gained nothing on 2008 despite the absence of gaffes and scandals... and whacking the worst terrorist in American history. Maybe Mitt Romney was the strongest challenger ever against an above-average President. Maybe people who voted for Obama in a panic about an economic meltdown found that once that danger was past they could go back to their old political ways.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

An incumbent President can lose support even with an improving economy. Obama gained nothing on 2008 despite the absence of gaffes and scandals... and whacking the worst terrorist in American history. Maybe Mitt Romney was the strongest challenger ever against an above-average President. Maybe people who voted for Obama in a panic about an economic meltdown found that once that danger was past they could go back to their old political ways.

Our INCUMBENTs in 2024 OH, VA, MT, WVA, PA, WI, MN, ME, WI, AZ,  and NV look much strong than the open R seats in 2022 in MO, OH and NC
 
Under 30 crowd don't vote that much in Midterms anyways

Sherrod Brown has a better chance at winning than Ryan although we have only 1 poll from OH in 2022 showing a tied race, and Tester hasn't lost a single race in MT, because the best recruit Rs had was Daines and Gianforte is Gov and doesn't plan to challenge Tester

As for Manchin he is likely to lose an R being Redistricted out but we have Rick Scott in FL more vulnerable than Rubio as wave insurance

That's why if we lose the H narrowly in 2022/ we can win it back with stronger turnout in 2024., But if Hunter Biden is investigated that changes to 2026

It all depends on how many seats Rs net.gaun 0/15 we will win it back possibly in 2024/ but if it's 15 or more 2026

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We must be all aware of RV v LV screen when we are looking at General Election matchups when we see IPSOS showing double digits leads for Biden over DeSantis and Trump

Same with Generic ballot how is the D's up 9 on Generic ballot and it was tied a few weeks ago and Biden is at 51/49 Approvals not 60% Approvals that shows you right there his Polls are matching his Approvals that he had on Election day 51/46%

That's how we were fooled in 2020 when they showed Biden up 17 in WI or Biden up 14% in a QU poll. RV not LV

That's why they're not showing any polls in IA, OH, NC and FL Senate races because D's are behind

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Newsom endangered of losing the recall it's tied 45/45% I might vote to recall Newsom

I told you Generic ballot plus 9 in a Pandemic is nonsense

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washington State: PPP, May 25-26, 992 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 41

By region:

King County 70/23
North Puget Sound 54/42
South Sound 40/55
Olympic Peninsula & SW Washington 55/40
East & Central Washington 41/57

[It’s so Joever]

Washington State: PPP, May 25-26, 992 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 41

By region:

King County 70/23
North Puget Sound 54/42
South Sound 40/55
Olympic Peninsula & SW Washington 55/40
East & Central Washington 41/57

YIKES

[Sir Mohamed]

Washington State: PPP, May 25-26, 992 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 41

By region:

King County 70/23
North Puget Sound 54/42
South Sound 40/55
Olympic Peninsula & SW Washington 55/40
East & Central Washington 41/57

Seems like an outlier, imho. Biden should be stronger in this state.

[pbrower2a]

Washington State: PPP, May 25-26, 992 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 41

By region:

King County 70/23
North Puget Sound 54/42
South Sound 40/55
Olympic Peninsula & SW Washington 55/40
East & Central Washington 41/57

Honeymoon over?

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), May 26-28, 1305 adults including 1006 RV

Adults:

Approve 53 (+2)
Disapprove 32 (nc)

RV:

Approve 59 (+4)
(Disapproval not shown)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, there's no way Biden is that middlingly popular in a state he won by a post-1964 record margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A wave is coming in 2022, that's why Rs are getting nervous and passing voter Suppression Laws we are gonna keep the blue wall, and keep the Senate, but with a wave Rs cannot take the H and it's crucial for Rs to take the H to get closer to 2024 to get Ron DeSantis as Prez, if he survives a Crist challenge, I was emailed a poll showing Grayson only 5 pts behind Rubio, I thought the Gov and Senate races were over apparently not

Rs are -9 on QU Generic ballot

We need 53 seats plus the H secure DC Statehood and Filibuster reform that includes 2/3 from IA OH, NC and FL since GA is gonna go to a Runoff anyways, we cannot enter 2023 with not enough votes in Sen again to not push Filibuster reform

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Yeah, there's no way Biden is that middlingly popular in a state he won by a post-1964 record margin.

I mean it’s still a 13 point spread and it’s not like there are any competitive states in the PNW, so even if it isn’t an outlier, as long as it’s a regional and national blip, it’s totally meaningless.

I’d trade 10 points in Washington for 10 in Wisconsin every damn day.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Washington State: PPP, May 25-26, 992 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 41

By region:

King County 70/23
North Puget Sound 54/42
South Sound 40/55
Olympic Peninsula & SW Washington 55/40
East & Central Washington 41/57

Seems like an outlier, imho. Biden should be stronger in this state.

That is a poll that would make sense if Biden were down 10 points nationally. Biden is up 13 nationally. That poll is a big outlier.

[DaleCooper]

Washington State: PPP, May 25-26, 992 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 41

By region:

King County 70/23
North Puget Sound 54/42
South Sound 40/55
Olympic Peninsula & SW Washington 55/40
East & Central Washington 41/57

Seems like an outlier, imho. Biden should be stronger in this state.

That is a poll that would make sense if Biden were down 10 points nationally. Biden is up 13 nationally. That poll is a big outlier.

Are you saying there's a chance that Washington votes to the right of the National Popular Vote?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are too overconfident about 2022 you see what happened in NM1 yesterday, there can be a wave that's why I say, the Election is in 500 days not 180 day from now, a wave can definitely happen with Rs down 9 on Generic Ballot