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roxas11
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,799
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« Reply #230 on: October 12, 2020, 07:07:06 AM » |
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Why are we obsessed with tracking polls, the Trafalgar poll in AZ showed it may not be a 500EC landslide and Trump approvals are at 46 percent
Here is a fact No modern presdent who failed to get at least a 50 percent approvel at this point has ever gone on to win reelection. At this same point in time both Obama and bush was at or over 50 percent The only predidents who failed to get a 50 perecent approvel rating a few weeks before an election was Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush The reality is Trump being in the mid 40s percent is simply not going to cut it anymore and if he is at 46 percent on election day than it is game over for both him and the GOP
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Granite City
Rookie
Posts: 139
Political Matrix E: -0.39, S: -2.61
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« Reply #241 on: October 16, 2020, 05:56:53 AM » |
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First time I've checked this thread in awhile, what's the difference between probabilistic and traditional as far as methodology?
Presumably they do a little adjustment based off the social contacts vote question and the others in the state vote question. Not unlike Trafalgar's "how will your neighbour vote" adjustment. Biden's lead is smaller in both of those than in the traditional vote screen so I guess that's why it contracts on the probabilistic screen. Maybe also a different Likely Voter adjustment? Based off demographics rather than self-reported likelihood.
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