Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The point I was making is that D's won the PVI by 3.1 and Biden is at 53% Approvals that fits in what will be a neutral cycle D's netting a 53/47 Senate and WI, PA, NH, GA and NC or OH goes D.  OH is a bellweather and it will be close to natl average

But, Biden isn't at 60% approvals due to Covid, everyone knows 1400 checks should of been 2K or 2600 and the only jobs that came back so far aren't White collar jobs but factory and airline jobs slave labor unless you work in reservations or flight attendant and they want you to be a female mostly

If the Economy is back in 500 days it will be a landslide

Govt guarentee or Green jobs would take care of the jobs that no one wants

[pbrower2a]

The point I was making is that D's won the PVI by 3.1 and Biden is at 53% Approvals that fits in what will be a neutral cycle D's netting a 53/47 Senate and WI, PA, NH, GA and NC or OH goes D.  OH is a bellweather and it will be close to natl average

But, Biden isn't at 60% approvals due to Covid, everyone knows 1400 checks should of been 2K or 2600 and the only jobs that came back so far aren't White collar jobs but factory and airline jobs slave labor unless you work in reservations or flight attendant and they want you to be a female mostly

If the Economy is back in 500 days it will be a landslide

Govt guarantee or Green jobs would take care of the jobs that no one wants

I see Ronald Reagan as a fairly good analogue for having won about the same percentage of the popular vote against a troubled President seeking re-election. Obviously Donald Trump is about as vile a person as Carter is a good person...

America has had too few manufacturing jobs over the last forty years or so. That may reflect that smart Boomers thought them too "mindless" and "unfulfilling" for their tastes -- as if jobs as store clerks and fast-food workers were any more "meaningful". Such work as Boomers often got proved, due to meagre paychecks, to lack the "meaning" essential for middle-class lives. You know what that "meaning" is. If work pays badly, the low pay means poverty.

Manufacturing jobs have been the most reliable route out of poverty, and when they are paying 150% of what an "assistant manager" earns in a fast-food place, then those are improvements. In the retail environment in which one buys stuff, in the enriching travel and entertainment, and in housing, how one earns income matters little. If one is a well-paid factory worker despite intellectual curiosity, then one can still buy books, classical music, and old movies that ordinarily signaled intellectual class in the old days, and still do. By no means do I disparage the white-collar professionals, but it is likely better if we don't have so many white-collar pseudo-professional bureaucrats who get paid well for doing things that nobody, including themselves, understands how their tasks improve the world. Maybe many of those tasks do not improve the world.

Don't be fooled by the glowing talk of green jobs as something easy to turn into soft, white-collar jobs in bloated bureaucracies. Making electric cars to supplant petroleum-fueled cars will require huge numbers of manufacturing workers. So will solar panels and of course the new or refurbished housing in economically-ravaged cities that will need revitalization. Automobiles may now be low-tech by current standards, but automobile manufacturing once made Detroit much that Silicon Valley was at least recently, the sort of place where people go for the attractive pay that allowed people to make solid incomes despite limited education.

Nobody cares how unsophisticated the technology is when your pay gets deposited. What matters is what one can do with it. If the work is real and so is the pay, then one has no real complaint. If the work is real and the pay is inadequate, then one is exploited. If one isn't doing valuable work but one is getting paid well one is a mooch who will lose his job in the next nasty downturn. Remember: Enron Corporation once got plenty of rewards for being a great place to work. Lots of people had BS jobs whose contributions to profitability of Enron they little understood. After they lost those jobs they had to start over because everyone knew that the zany environment at Enron was itself BS.       

[pbrower2a]

US Senate elections, 2022:

Senate seats up for election in 2022 are so split between Democrats and Republicans:  

The 2022 Senate elections still largely reflect the smashing success of Republicans in the "Tea Party" election of 2010, when Republican nominees for the Senate came close to wiping the Democrats off the Senate map where there was a contested race that year. Republicans even won Senate seats in Illinois and Massachusetts in special elections (Obama's former Senate seat and a seat that Ted Kennedy vacated due to death). Only nine Democratic Senate seats remain as holdovers from before the 2010 super wave for the GOP of 2010. Democrats did win back one of those seats (Massachusetts) in 2014 in a regular election, and it is not up in 2022. Democrats won "back" US Senate seats in Illinois and New Hampshire in 2016 and took one over that year (Nevada) that was long held by Republicans and since picked up Arizona and Georgia in special elections in 2020. Freshman Senators from states not super-solid for their Parties are never shoo-ins, so I must weaken the color for Democratic-held Senate seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The freshman incumbent from Illinois is at no obvious risk of defeat in 2022. Among  Republicans who are assumed to be running for re-election the only one who could be defeated based upon the closeness of the state in recent elections is Marco Rubio in Florida, and I may be stretching things a bit here. Likewise, Lisa Murkowski may face a challenge from her Right in a jungle primary that she could lose. I may be stretching things a bit here, but it is too early to not do so. If I call Nevada's Senate seat up in 2022 "vulnerable", then I must so see Florida.  Ron Johnson may be retiring in 2022 (such was his promise in 2016)... and in the event that he does not retire, he is the most vulnerable of Republican incumbents in the Senate. Incumbents can lose Governorships and Senate seats even in wave years for their Parties, and Ron Johnson could lose his Senate seat even in a good year for Republicans.

Still, those in pink or light blue at least have the advantage of incumbency.  

Retirements are usually even messier for Parties trying to hold onto a Senate seat. It is possible for a Senator to retire in a wave election against his Party in a swing state with a successor from his own Party winning, as Gary Peters did in Michigan in 2014 in succeeding fellow Democrat Carl Levin. Let's put it this way about Alabama: Shelby is retiring, but unless there is another Doug Jones vs. Ray Moore matchup the Republican nominee is going to be in a far stronger position than was Gary Peters in Michigan in 2014. The Republican nominee for the US from Alabama is likely to win his state  by 20% or so. Alabama remains dark blue.

But Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have incumbent Senators retiring. These states have had Senatorial and Gubernatorial races decided  by narrow margins in recent years. Open seats in these states are literally wide open. Add to this, Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has usually won re-election by huge margins, but he will be 89 as the 2022 Senate election goes into the home stretch.

But will he retire?

One of the fundamentals of running for election is to get the funds, and Senator Grassley is faltering.  He is doing far worse than Raphael Warnock (D-GA), who is comparatively new to this.  The poor fundraising suggests that Chck Gtrassley will retire. Iowa swings wildly in elections these days, so if he is not on the ballot, then anything is possible.

No Democrat shows signs of retiring, so I can use yellow for retiring or likely-to-retire Senators whose states will not be sure things. \

      
 

So
  
So...

gray -- no race
dark blue : Republican near-sure thing (I include Alabama)
light blue: Republican edge, but shaky for some reason
red: Democratic near-sure thing
pink: Democratic edge well short of a sure thing
yellow: retiring Republican leaving a potential tossup

No Democrat is retiring, at least so far.

... Note that the source that I have for telling me that Chuck Grassley isn't getting the money directed at him say much the same for Ron Johnson, R-WI. Yellow could easily be more apt for a description of the state of the Republican chance of winning his Senate seat.  

)I was thinking that I made a mistake in posting this message in this forum, but this may reflect the climate forming under President Biden, if not the disgraceful end of the trump Administration).
  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson hasn't lead in a single poll he is at 35% and GA is a Runoff state, in a neutral cycle D's would win WI, PA and NH and lose GA due to a Runoff, the chances of WARNOCK getting 50.1 is very low and even if Abrams run she won't get 50.1 percent either to avoid a Runoff

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 21-22, 1004 adults

Approve 54 (nc)
Disapprove 39 (+1)

Approval by party:

D: 92 (+4)
I: 50 (+2)
R: 17 (-4)

[ajc0918]

RABA Research, April 19, 2021, 575 interviews with Florida voters

Florida

Favorable: 54
Unfavorable: 42

2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Joe Biden?
Total
Very favorable 38%
Somewhat favorable 16%
Somewhat unfavorable 9%
Very unfavorable 33%
Don't know 4%

https://www.rabaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/RABA-Florida-April-2021-MQ.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a Pandemic, Biden isn't gonna have runaway approvals and the chances of a  Supermajority Senate is dim due to the Pandemic, the most Senators Dems at this point is not 56 but probably 53 WI, PA, NH, GA and probably NC or OH. OH, NC are wave insurance in case D's lose GA in a Runoff, no one knows what happens in a Runoff

As I have been saying all along a D3.1 Election is probable they won the PVI last time by that much and hold the Trifecta, not a D plus 8 Election where Ds win IA, FL, OH and NC

They haven't even polled none of those states except WI, and NH, and AZ is a pure Tossup, Kelly is the fav but he is Vulnerable

[pbrower2a]

Johnson hasn't lead in a single poll he is at 35% and GA is a Runoff state, in a neutral cycle D's would win WI, PA and NH and lose GA due to a Runoff, the chances of WARNOCK getting 50.1 is very low and even if Abrams run she won't get 50.1 percent either to avoid a Runoff

Demographic trends favor Democrats in Georgia but Republicans in Iowa and Ohio. The only good thing I can say about Republican chances is that in states with urban areas hemorrhaging population is that Biden has little chance of winning back rural areas.

Georgia Republicans have tried to institutionalize some cheats, but those risk obvious challenges for constitutionality. There is no precedent for a State legislature nullifying the Presidential count solely due to disdain for the results. Powerful figures denying the result of elections when those elections did not go as they liked? That's how Robert Mugabe did things in Zimbabwe. Mugabe's regime was understood to be a dictatorship.

 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Last poll had it R Nominee 47 WARNOCK 45 I am not arguing about a win in GA, WARNOCK or Abrams have to get 50.1 to avoid the Runoff,
anything can happen in a the Runoffs. The ratings of GA, AZ or NH as safe D are wrong they are Tossups

AZ is gonna be close too until we find a Gubernatorial nominee, Kelly is far from safe, and then there is NH, Hassan voted against minimium wage

Every poll has Sununu ahead, but it's a Tossup

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 21-22, 1004 adults

Approve 54 (nc)
Disapprove 39 (+1)

Approval by party:

D: 92 (+4)
I: 50 (+2)
R: 17 (-4)

This is consistent with a landslide on the scale of the elder Bush in 1988. This would give Biden every state that Democrats have won in a Presidential election beginning in 2008 except perhaps Indiana -- and turn Texas in 2004. Even Indiana could be shaky for the Republican.

RABA Research, April 19, 2021, 575 interviews with Florida voters

Florida

Favorable: 54
Unfavorable: 42

2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Joe Biden?
Total
Very favorable 38%
Somewhat favorable 16%
Somewhat unfavorable 9%
Very unfavorable 33%
Don't know 4%

https://www.rabaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/RABA-Florida-April-2021-MQ.pdf

That Florida poll is unrepresentative. It took a 38D-32R-30I sample, but IRL, Florida has a 36D-36R-28I partisan makeup (as of official government data March 31, 2021).

Using data from the crosstabs, I've calculated that if you generalize the political party favorabilities to the representative sample, then you get a real favorability rating for Biden in Florida of 53% - 46% (+7%), which, while not bad, is a far cry from the reported +12% Biden favorability rating. Here's the data:

Biden favorability rating in Florida among Democrats: +50%; 75% Favorable; 25% Unfavorable (probably Dixiecrats in the panhandle and some registered Democrat Cubanos)

Biden favorability rating in Florida among Independents: +35%; 63% Favorable; 28% Unfavorable (very encouraging numbers)

Biden favorability rating in Florida among Republicans: -54%; 22% Favorable; 76% Unfavorable (Doubtful IMHO)


This polling firm has done a Missouri poll as well.

Missouri (April 08): 54% Unfavorable, 45% Favorable (-9%)

I don't show approval polls on the map, but by this point I would expect approval and favorability to be in line. Florida has been close in every election since 1992, and this suggests that it won't be. In some other thread I do show it. Florida just does not get decided by high single digits, but should it be so decided, then a landslide is in the works. This is consistent with polls in Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia that suggest that President Biden is in good shape for the 2024 election so far.

[pbrower2a]

In a Pandemic, Biden isn't gonna have runaway approvals and the chances of a  Supermajority Senate is dim due to the Pandemic, the most Senators Dems at this point is not 56 but probably 53 WI, PA, NH, GA and probably NC or OH. OH, NC are wave insurance in case D's lose GA in a Runoff, no one knows what happens in a Runoff

As I have been saying all along a D3.1 Election is probable they won the PVI last time by that much and hold the Trifecta, not a D plus 8 Election where Ds win IA, FL, OH and NC

They haven't even polled none of those states except WI, and NH, and AZ is a pure Tossup, Kelly is the fav but he is Vulnerable

The COVID-19 plague has been killing like a war. The full emotional impact of the human losses is yet to be known, and it is not going to well serve Republicans -- especially any whom Democrats can attach to Donald Trump.

People are herding themselves into inoculation sites, and America is on the brink of "herd immunity", if in a way that Donald Trump did not express as likely. The recent scare about a COVID-19 outbreak is getting people into inoculation sites.

I was at one of them, and I started to see parents getting their 16-year-old and 17-year-old kids inoculated. Maybe those kids got their parents or grandparents to get inoculated, and now the kids get it.

We may be overproducing to the point that by the end of the year we will be supplying them to other countries.  Maybe we will start producing them for the lucrative veterinary trade. 

[It’s so Joever]

You are worse than Monstro.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's true that we have never seen a measured pbower2A Approvall map they have all been rosey scenarios

We should expect a neutral Environment until this Covid is over

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If I were Ds are would be worried about all three NH, AZ and GA, Immigration reform is not the answer to refugees crossing our boarder ever since 2007 Immigration reform has been the highlight for both parties

What happens if we pass Immigration reform and amnesty and PR Statehood and Covid and boarder crisis are still out of control

That's why Rs can still win the H TX is betting new H Districts and they are gonna be R Gerrymandering

[President Johnson]

Lmao Florida. I actually want Florida and Texas to switch positions in the states coalition for both parties. The Republicans can have Florida if Texas becomes a serious battleground.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lmao Florida. I actually want Florida and Texas to switch positions in the states coalition for both parties. The Republicans can have Florida if Texas becomes a serious battleground.

You really think TX is a battleground and the only person that beats Abbott is McCounghey

TX is betting 4 new seats and they probably gonna be R gerrymandering, and FL is netting 2 and DeSantis is gonna be R gerrymandering as long as Covid sticks around

Don't forget in 2010/2014 D's in the S were wiped out, we are approaching a midterm with Covid and a refugee crisis and S is netting Seats I'm Redistricting

[Lief 🗽]

Wow! Tremendous numbers from the highly-respected Gallup.

Approve 57 (+3)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone knows that the Trump party is now the Insurrectionists party anyways, and Trump, Cruz and Hawley are still out there with no accountability

But Obama was at 60/40 Approvals a yr before the 2010 Tea party Revolt

Midterms are determined by GENERIC BALLOT, NOT BY PREZ APPROVALS AND DS LOST THE S IN 2010/2014/ MIDTERMS, BUT OBAMA WON REELECTION IN 2012, the S is where Biden is having a hard time with not the N where 278 blue wall


If Rs win the H it would be in TX and FL where there is an R Gerrymandering

[Progressive Pessimist]

RABA Research, April 19, 2021, 575 interviews with Florida voters

Florida

Favorable: 54
Unfavorable: 42

2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Joe Biden?
Total
Very favorable 38%
Somewhat favorable 16%
Somewhat unfavorable 9%
Very unfavorable 33%
Don't know 4%

https://www.rabaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/RABA-Florida-April-2021-MQ.pdf

So, when graded on the Florida curve, Biden is underwater by at least four points in this poll.

[Pericles]

Didn't RABA show Greenfield with a 12 point lead? Or was that someone else?

[pbrower2a]

Wow! Tremendous numbers from the highly-respected Gallup.

Approve 57 (+3)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

This change is within the zone of statistical noise. But even if it is statistical noise it is noise in the right direction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we looking so hard at Approvals, as I said before Obama was at 60/40 the yr before the 2010 Tea Party Revolt, but Obama won Reelection based on the 278 blue wall, the S is slowly drifting R as long as Covid and border crisis remain a problem. Same with Biden he will win not for the S but the 278 blue wall.  AZ can easily go back R and GA too, Kelly is weak but still a slight fav

Do you guys really think it's gonna be a D plus 8 Election, no it's not, the zone of probability it D plus 3.1 like last time enough to hold the Trifecta and AZ, NH and GA are Vulnerable and D's in TX and FL  in the H are Vulnerable too

Unless Covid is Eradicated, it's gonna be a close Election next Fall. You see the state by state polling isn't matching with a 60 percent Approvals, there are jobs but they are slave labor factory jobs

The Midterms are based on Generic ballot numbers not Prez Approvals and Biden won't be at 57 percent next fall

By the way 1400 wasn't enough stimulus,  it should of been 2K or 2600

[roxas11]

Why are we looking so hard at Approvals, as I said before Obama was at 60/40 the yr before the 2010 Tea Party Revolt, but Obama won Reelection based on the 278 blue wall, the S is slowly drifting R as long as Covid and border crisis remain a problem. Same with Biden he will win not for the S but the 278 blue wall.  AZ can easily go back R and GA too, Kelly is weak but still a slight fav

Do you guys really think it's gonna be a D plus 8 Election, no it's not, the zone of probability it D plus 3.1 like last time enough to hold the Trifecta and AZ, NH and GA are Vulnerable and D's in TX and FL  in the H are Vulnerable too

Unless Covid is Eradicated, it's gonna be a close Election next Fall. You see the state by state polling isn't matching with a 60 percent Approvals, there are jobs but they are slave labor factory jobs

The Midterms are based on Generic ballot numbers not Prez Approvals and Biden won't be at 57 percent next fall

By the way 1400 wasn't enough stimulus,  it should of been 2K or 2600

In the words of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema

[TheTide]

RABA Research, April 19, 2021, 575 interviews with Florida voters

Florida

Favorable: 54
Unfavorable: 42

2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Joe Biden?
Total
Very favorable 38%
Somewhat favorable 16%
Somewhat unfavorable 9%
Very unfavorable 33%
Don't know 4%

https://www.rabaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/RABA-Florida-April-2021-MQ.pdf

Quite astonishing that the "somewhat" numbers can only muster a combined 25% for someone who is a lot less polarizing than various alternatives.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As of Today with DC Statehood it would be a 53/48 Senate WI, PA and NH goes D and GA goes to a runoff and narrowly Hold the H

Gov resurrect the blue wall win AZ and MD lose KS