COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

%change from April 1 to April 2

Don't know how useful this is, since day-over-day numbers can fluctuate depending on what time of day states report. I might do a weekly heat map at some point.

30% Red: < 10%
40% Red: 10 - 12.5%
50% Red: 12.5 - 15%
60% Red: 15 - 20%
70% Red: 20 - 30%
80% Red: 30 - 40%
90% Red: > 40%

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Newsweek just released an article titled FDR, REAGAN AND OBAMA WON RE-ELECTION WITH MORE THAN 7% UNEMPLOYMENT. AMID CORONAVIRUS, COULD TRUMP?



but what they forgot to point out is that every one of those presidents entered office when things were already going bad but by time the election came around the economy improved enough for all 3 of them to be reelected

Trump on the other hand entered office when things were going good but now the economy has fallen off a cliff and many have now died because of his lackluster response to the virus at the start

So good luck trying to sell a record like that to voters in November because at the rate things are currently going Trump is going to need all the luck he can get lol  

A couple of stray observations:

1. Trump's entire selling point was bringing jobs back. 15% unemployment kind of undermines that, regardless of its cause. Very bad for Trump.

2. The complete binary ideological sorting of our country means Trump voters are predisposed to crediting him for positive economic numbers and blaming forces outside his control for negative economic numbers. Good for Trump.

3. When you're out of work, you don't really care why. You're mad and you want change. Bad for Trump.

4. How you view the state of the economy when Trump took office is also determined by how you've been sorted. Trump voters thought Obama made a mess of things in his second term, while Hillary voters thought things were great. Good for Trump.

I think the sum total still comes out very poorly for Trump's re-election prospects, but so many things could happen in the next seven months. Trump gets constant, non-stop press coverage, Biden can't even hold rallies. And the halt to the primary season completely knocks Biden out of the 24-hour news cycle. That alone gives Trump a huge edge.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Per capita, April 3 end of day:

Number of cases:
60% Blue: 10 - 15 per 100k
40% Blue: 15 - 20 per 100k
30% Blue: 20 - 30 per 100k
30% Red: 30 - 40 per 100k
40% Red: 40 - 50 per 100k
50% Red: 50 - 75 per 100K
60% Red: 75 - 100 per 100k
80% Red: 100 - 250 per 100k
90% Red: 250+ per 100k

Per capita, April 2 end of day:

Number of cases:
60% Blue: 10 - 15 per 100k
40% Blue: 15 - 20 per 100k
30% Blue: 20 - 30 per 100k
30% Red: 30 - 40 per 100k
40% Red: 40 - 50 per 100k
50% Red: 50 - 75 per 100K
60% Red: 75 - 100 per 100k
80% Red: 100 - 250 per 100k
90% Red: 250+ per 100k

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

OK,

Based on data available here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Top growth rates in the world are for new countries entering the curve:

1   72.2%   Cameroon
2   28.8%   Kuwait
3   28.3%   Serbia
4   26.5%   UAE
5   23.7%   Palestine
6   23.7%   Niger
7   22.6%   Algeria
8   22.2%   Peru
9   22.2%   Channel Islands
10   22.1%   Paraguay

(min cases: 50)

In terms of countries with little to no infection rates of Corona-virus, that has been done for us already:



Normally I would say that these are the places where one should feel safe, but not on this occasion.

Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, besides being physically stronger than any other world leader, an excellent marksman and a skilled driver, is also a genius scientist who developed a vaccine that he is not sharing outside of Turkmenistan.

That, or he's simply concealing the numbers.