COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

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lol.  The TrumpFlu finally exposes toxic masculinity. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/us/domestic-violence-coronavirus-calls-cases-increase-invs/index.html

This comment is in poor taste

But I'm sure calling it "chinese virus" is totally cool with you. Trump didn't take this seriously and now we may be entering a depression. Deal with it.

[Sbane]

Re: testing.


I've said it many times, but US has more and better targeted (better Doctors?) testing that most Western Countries. If you don't believe me, listen to Nate Silver >>>

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246454777736843269


"Our testing is better than much of Europe, and we're picking up a higher share of infections than they are."

The problem is we needed to be like South Korea to avoid the 2nd Great Depression. We failed and the cat is out the bag. We are screwed no matter we do. We either stay shut down for another couple months and go into a depression or we open up the country and end up having to shut it down again or see people dying in hospital hallways and parking lots.

[Sbane]

lol.  The TrumpFlu finally exposes toxic masculinity. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/us/domestic-violence-coronavirus-calls-cases-increase-invs/index.html

This comment is in poor taste

But I'm sure calling it "chinese virus" is totally cool with you. Trump didn't take this seriously and now we may be entering a depression. Deal with it.

Oh please. If a person's response to an article describing a spike in domestic violence is "lol," then that person is a piece of sh**t.

Not defending that at all.

This is the "trumpflu" though. If he had given a sh**t and got serious about testing when it actually mattered, we wouldn't be in this mess. We wouldn't have to choose between American lives or the economy.

[Sbane]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

That's fine, but please don't go to the hospital if you get sick. You obviously don't give a sh**t about healthcare workers, so why should they risk their lives to save you?

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Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

That's fine, but please don't go to the hospital if you get sick. You obviously don't give a sh**t about healthcare workers, so why should they risk their lives to save you?

Cool! Another person I need to block!

Healthcare workers all over the world are dropping like flies and you can't stay inside for two months? That is just too much to ask?

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Having it I can tell you it's not fun having it, but if people want to be dumba$$es and get it, let them

Except people like my fiancee will have to die for their stupidity. And these are going to be the same morons who will just walk into a hospital ER waiting room with no mask on coughing on everybody in sight.

[Sbane]

Re: testing.


I've said it many times, but US has more and better targeted (better Doctors?) testing that most Western Countries. If you don't believe me, listen to Nate Silver >>>

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246454777736843269


"Our testing is better than much of Europe, and we're picking up a higher share of infections than they are."

The problem is we needed to be like South Korea to avoid the 2nd Great Depression. We failed and the cat is out the bag. We are screwed no matter we do. We either stay shut down for another couple months and go into a depression or we open up the country and end up having to shut it down again or see people dying in hospital hallways and parking lots.

We won't go into a Great Depression. The thing that has to be remembered is that the Great Depression itself was not just the natural contraction of the economy, but the complete unwinding of the financial sector/system peeling itself apart like a banana over the course of three years time, while the Government sat on its hands and the Fed actively made the liquidity problems worse.

The banks are well capitalized, the Fed has pumped trillions of liquidity into various markets, and the Gov't just passed a 2 Trillion stimulus with another on the table if necessary.

People love to throw out numbers as "worst since the Great Depression" and use any manner of sensational headlines. It could be bad, very bad indeed, but the confluence of events that caused the Great Depression is not happening here.

Yes, I am hoping for the best as well. If we can open up by May 1st we should be fine. Looking at the data coming in, I am pessimistic. If we are shut down for longer I do fear longer term economic pain. Of course, it wouldn't last for more than a decade like the Great Depression, but the next few years could be rough.

We need a treatment, and we needed it yesterday. I am hoping Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin will be effective. Unfortunately, we just don't have enough data in to say one way or the other. The experimental drugs like Remdesivir I don't have hope for since even if it was effective, their just isn't the stock available to distribute it all across the US and the world. It would take at least a couple months at the earliest and the economy will be in tatters by then.

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Surprised this hasn't been talked about yet in the thread, but Walmart an Target are rolling out new social distancing measures tomorrow limiting stores to 20% capacity.

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1246277075100749824

Good, the grocery store seems to be the one place you can't avoid people who don't have a mask & blatantly disregard social distancing protocols.

No.  Bad.  Very, very bad.  This will just lead to more panic buying, which means more people will turn up to shop, which will now translate into long lines outside grocery stores (4 hrs wait for milk and eggs?), which means even *more panic buying.

This is the truly apocalyptic, society-ending stuff.  Not having to share a ventilator.

Working at Target I can tell you that we have strict limits on essential items now, panic buying has pretty much been banned. I can tell you this cause I’ve been verbally harassed and berated over the past few weeks upholding them. But guess what? Those customers can get f**ked. Done being polite.

Keep your head up brother. You are a hero.

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https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.

In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.

Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant. It’s one that won’t fully subside even when people stop hoarding or panic-buying.

Pretty good points here!

Pretty much the same reason why other staples such as milk, bread and eggs have been hard to keep in stock.

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https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1246547983581286403


A taste of what could happen, if Hillary won. Reducing of flights from China likely would be considered xenophobic and US would have gotten (ten?) thousands of additional imported cases. A 1,000 new cases become a 1,000,000 in a month under the assumption that doubling rate time is ~3 days.

Probably the only thing he got right. That was not enough, as the data shows. The closing of travel to Europe was bungled since people rushed back to the states and airports in cities like New York and Chicago were absolutely crushed by people returning from Europe. Perfect place for the virus to spread into multiple other communities across the US. Looking at the places that are most affected, I would say more cases came from Europe rather than China.

And I won't even go into the testing failure.......that is the main reason why the US is in the predicament it is in.

[Sbane]

lol.  The TrumpFlu finally exposes toxic masculinity. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/us/domestic-violence-coronavirus-calls-cases-increase-invs/index.html

This comment is in poor taste

But I'm sure calling it "chinese virus" is totally cool with you. Trump didn't take this seriously and now we may be entering a depression. Deal with it.

If your response to "LOL domestic violence, how funny!" Is to pivot back to "muh orange man racist" then onto ignore you go.

As someone who denies this pandemic is even a problem, that's pretty rich coming from you. The mentality of people like you is one of the reasons why we are in this predicament. Ignorant.

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1246547983581286403
A taste of what could happen, if Hillary won. Reducing of flights from China likely would be considered xenophobic and US would have gotten (ten?) thousands of additional imported cases. A 1,000 new cases become a 1,000,000 in a month under the assumption that doubling rate time is ~3 days.

Probably the only thing he got right. That was not enough, as the data shows. The closing of travel to Europe was bungled since people rushed back to the states and airports in cities like New York and Chicago were absolutely crushed by people returning from Europe. Perfect place for the virus to spread into multiple other communities across the US. Looking at the places that are most affected, I would say more cases came from Europe rather than China.

And I won't even go into the testing failure.......that is the main reason why the US is in the predicament it is in.

Testing? How's that Trump's fault? My understanding that CDC did as they usually do and tried to make their own test instead of relying on WHO and was too late to let private firms start it. It't not like it was Trump's idea or that he ordered them not to. Trump followed CDC's expertise (https://www.cdc.gov/about/leadership.htm), didn't he? You think that Hillary would press the experts of CDC to go private? Perhaps, she could, but I doubt it'd be significant diff.

Oh I know it was bureaucratic nonsense but the buck stops with Trump. It was his own people doing the bungling. He did finally put his foot down and got the testing flowing, like it is now. It was just a few weeks too late. We can only speculate if Hillary or someone else would have done better, but Trump's government screwed it up. That is what we know for sure.

Even now states like mine just aren't testing enough and they aren't recommending tests unless you fall under a strict criteria. You can have all the symptoms of covid but if you don't have a bad cough no test for you. So a lot of people with mild symptoms are likely being missed and these people could end up infecting more vulnerable people. Trump needs to be more forceful about ordering all states to get their act together and start testing anyone with covid-19 like symptoms. I blame the local authorities more of course. The mayor of Odessa is an absolute moron. His own mom had to be hospitalized with covid-19 like symptoms before he realized this was serious.

https://www.cbs7.com/content/news/Odessa-Coronavirus-Testing-Mayor-Turner-doesnt-know-Judge-Hays-wont-talk-Health-Department-cant-talk-569170081.html
https://www.cbs7.com/content/news/Statement-to-the-Citizens-of-Odessa-from-Mayor-David-Turner-569193441.html

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Oh I know it was bureaucratic nonsense but the buck stops with Trump. It was his own people doing the bungling. He did finally put his foot down and got the testing flowing, like it is now. It was just a few weeks too late. We can only speculate if Hillary or someone else would have done better, but Trump's government screwed it up. That is what we know for sure.

As I said my understanding that it's what experts-epidemiologist (not bureaucratic) of CDC decision to proceed like this. If there is any evidence that experts of CDS were demanding more testing, but Trump/his bureaucrats screw it up, link to it.

I already linked to CNN article that explained about CDC routines, here is 538 about testing and diff vs South Korea
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-coronavirus-tests-actually-work/

Compare that to South Korea, where people can get their results in about a day. There, the government had been stockpiling the necessary chemicals for years after COVID-19’s cousin MERS briefly hit that country in 2015. That helped the country move quickly to approve and decentralize testing as soon as COVID-19 arrived.

See, a structural problem that US governments didn't stockpiled, not specifically Trump's or Obama's. Most European Countries are doing worse/same.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1245449988186025985

Bug and feature of US system.

Even now states like mine just aren't testing enough and they aren't recommending tests unless you fall under a strict criteria.

Take a look at Europe. Even stricter criteria, even less testing for most countries. Explanation is not that their current governments were "bungling", but that their systems are structurally different from US and that most governments have been "bungling" in decades.

Germany is an obvious exception. Fast and massive testing from the beginning.

First of all, I would like to note that most of Europe has done a sh**t job and that is not who I would want to emulate, with the exception of Germany, as you noted. South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Germany have shown us how to keep this thing under some control.

Concerning the CDC and testing, obviously there are some systemic issues at play that we have to get to the bottom of. There will need to be an investigation into this just like the 9/11 commission. That being said, things did get better once there was pressure from the top. Unfortunately, the people at the top (Trump and his immediate subordinates) weren't very interested in this until it was too late. If they had been pushing for more testing since January we would have had more testing and caught the outbreaks in NYC and New Orleans sooner. I do hold the CDC to a higher standard than its peers in other nations. Don't forget, America is the greatest country in the world.

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NYC vs. the rest of the country (including SF which also has high public transit commuting, dense housing, and a large homeless population and is rather amazingly doing fine) makes me wonder if closing schools might be the single most important intervention?  Japan closed schools very early and while they are having some issues now (2nd wave?), they seem to be doing very well vs. the free world average. 

One relevant point to consider when talking about density is that the highest concentrations in the NY area are not in NYC on a per capita basis, but rather in Westchester and Rockland Counties north of the city, followed by Nassau County, and only then by the Bronx and Queens. Even within the city, the per capita rate doesn't follow density; Manhattan is by far the densest borough but has the lowest per capita rate of the five boroughs and is lower than multiple suburban counties (those mentioned above and also Orange and Suffolk Counties and Bergen County, NJ, which all also have higher per capita rates than Brooklyn).

This all suggests that NYC's severe outbreak relative to other cities is mostly down to bad luck (perhaps some early super-spreader cases) rather than density.

The varying rates within the Metro might come down to demographics - with suburban counties being older than the relatively young City. 

I suspect this a density story through-and-through.  NYC is 60% denser than SF and more transit-centric (55% of households in NYC don’t have a car, only 30% in SF).

Shutting down early is just as important. SF is denser than LA but LA has been less successful at bending the curve than SF. The Bay Area shut down just a few days earlier than the rest of California and took it a bit more seriously than the rest of California as well as the country, and the results show.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1247341470450962432

Ah, good ol' Trumpian corruption.

Nah, I doubt the Plaquenil brand sells much. The generic is what is available right now on the market with plans to produce large quantities of the generic in the near future, not just in the US but in other countries as well. Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin are also the cheapest options out of the various therapies used for Covid-19. I would love it if these two drugs were proven to be effective since they are cheap and widely available. The data just isn't there though. We don't have the studies we need to have a clear answer. There are also other questions such as whether it shows any benefit in those who have a mild form of the illness. What about those who are in critical condition? Prophylactic use? We have more questions than answers right now.

And just to be clear, I wish Trump would stop pushing for this drug and let the doctors do their work. Many doctors around the country are already starting to use this medication not because Trump told them to, but because it's the best option we have right now, besides breathing treatments and albuterol inhalers, to try and keep people out of the hospital.

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NYC vs. the rest of the country (including SF which also has high public transit commuting, dense housing, and a large homeless population and is rather amazingly doing fine) makes me wonder if closing schools might be the single most important intervention?  Japan closed schools very early and while they are having some issues now (2nd wave?), they seem to be doing very well vs. the free world average. 

One relevant point to consider when talking about density is that the highest concentrations in the NY area are not in NYC on a per capita basis, but rather in Westchester and Rockland Counties north of the city, followed by Nassau County, and only then by the Bronx and Queens. Even within the city, the per capita rate doesn't follow density; Manhattan is by far the densest borough but has the lowest per capita rate of the five boroughs and is lower than multiple suburban counties (those mentioned above and also Orange and Suffolk Counties and Bergen County, NJ, which all also have higher per capita rates than Brooklyn).

This all suggests that NYC's severe outbreak relative to other cities is mostly down to bad luck (perhaps some early super-spreader cases) rather than density.

The varying rates within the Metro might come down to demographics - with suburban counties being older than the relatively young City. 

I suspect this a density story through-and-through.  NYC is 60% denser than SF and more transit-centric (55% of households in NYC don’t have a car, only 30% in SF).

Shutting down early is just as important. SF is denser than LA but LA has been less successful at bending the curve than SF. The Bay Area shut down just a few days earlier than the rest of California and took it a bit more seriously than the rest of California as well as the country, and the results show.

So far the # of cases in the population looks pretty consistent between SF and LA.  1:1515 in SF, 1:1585 in LA County.  By what metric is SF doing much better than the rest of California?

There was community spread first in the Bay Area. The virus is now spreading faster in the rest of California than in the Bay Area. Look at the county map on NYT. Most of the Bay Area has cases doubling every 7 days or more. Rest of California is a little less than that, and about half that in places like Kern, San Bernardino and Riverside. Los Angeles County is doubling every 4.5 days. Orange County and Ventura County are also doing a good job flattening the curve. Correlates well with education levels as well. Social distancing works.

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Re: NYC vs SF


https://twitter.com/germanrlopez/status/1247210000155643904

My sister lives in the Bay Area and in her circle people were already sheltering in place even before the authorities made it official.

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Trump has direct money interests in promoting Hydroxychloroquine.   Surprising no one.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-stake-company-hydroxychloroquine_n_5e8c41d7c5b6e1d10a696280

President Donald Trump reportedly owns a stake in a company that produces hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug he has repeatedly touted as a coronavirus treatment even though his experts say there’s no strong evidence it works.

Trump “has a small personal financial interest” in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine, The New York Times reported Monday.

Its going to be the generic versions of the drug which will move fast. We are not even bothering with getting the brand since insurance will likely not pay for it and people want the generic. And the generic is what is being mass produced right now in anticipation of an increase in demand.

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https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1247686904784576513?s=19

Bad and or sick guy.

You guys are being just as bad as Trump championing the drug. A doctor should be able to prescribe an FDA approved drug to their patient!

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1247686904784576513?s=19

Bad and or sick guy.

You guys are being just as bad as Trump championing the drug. A doctor should be able to prescribe an FDA approved drug to their patient!

Yeah the guy who has money in a drug that has been proven to have deadly side effects unless its taken for its intended purposes for Malaria and Lupus is sure doing the right thing

It does have some serious side effects but they are rare and develop with time. The course most doctors are using is for 5 days. Combining it with Azithromycin could cause arrythmias but that is why patients need to have an ECG before starting the therapy.

I have mentioned at least a couple times on this thread that Plaquenil will not have increased sales. That is the drug product Trump might make money on, not the generic product that will be dispensed 99% of the time. And since it's a one time course and the drug is cheap, there really isn't much money to be made. That is one of the reasons why drug companies don't spend more time trying to discover new antibiotics and antivirals. Much more lucrative to create a new drug for diabetes that people will have to pay for monthly for the rest of their lives.

Also when did I say Trump was doing the right thing? He needs to stop recommending drugs and let the doctors do their job. You guys should also not question doctors who are prescribing FDA approved drugs to their patients after properly evaluating them. The doctor at the nursing home in question has every right to prescribe hydroxychloroquine to his patients. Whether it will work or not is the question we do not have an answer to yet.

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Also just in general, drug therapies are not political. There are no Republican drugs or Democratic drugs. You people, and the president, need to get a grip.

[Sbane]

Cuomo: Use of antimalarial drug in New York hospitals 'anecdotally' positive

Bad and or sick guy.

Hospitals are different than nursing homes where MAGA toads are ignoring power of attorney to use the elderly as guinea pigs.

How do you know the doctor is a "MAGA toad"?

[Sbane]

Cuomo: Use of antimalarial drug in New York hospitals 'anecdotally' positive

Bad and or sick guy.

Hospitals are different than nursing homes where MAGA toads are ignoring power of attorney to use the elderly as guinea pigs.

How do you know the doctor is a "MAGA toad"?

Read the tweet again.

https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1247686904784576513?s=19

So a Republican doctor can't prescribe hydroxychloroquine anymore? What about a Democratic doctor? Would it be ok for them to prescribe it? Just trying to figure out the rules here.

Maybe some of you don't know this but drugs are used for non-FDA labeled indications on a daily basis. In this case the FDA has given the green light to doctors to use this drug if they feel the benefits outweigh the risk in their patients. There are some in-vitro studies and small uncontrolled trials showing some benefit. Even though the FDA does not have enough evidence to approve the drug for covid-19, that does not mean doctors cannot try it if they feel it is appropriate for their patient.

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Is there anyone here who still maintains that the US is on an Italy-type disease trajectory?  Or can we all reasonably agree that the United States looks like it will be one of the "success stories" of the global pandemic?  If so, can we talk about what factors have influenced the U.S. emerging relatively unscathed from this?  Better testing, more docs/ventilators, lower population density, younger demographics, warm weather, etc.

Social distancing occurring all across the US once the horrendous NYC data started rolling in a few weeks back. Places like California and Washington which got hit first did a great job starting social distancing early (since they didn't have tests). That avoided a disaster there. Places like NYC and LA which didn't socially distance and got early cases got hit hard. The rest of the country seems to be avoiding a similar fate by changing their behavior while the infection is not as prevalent in their communities. Hopefully this trajectory continues.

We could have possibly avoided social distancing and the resulting economic armageddon if we had tested early and aggressively. Not just people who went to China. We missed people bringing it from Europe. And we just pretended community spread wasn't occurring in the US until it was too late. Our best bet is to ramp up testing capability to such a high level that we can open up the country and control local epidemics as they pop up using aggressive testing, contact tracing and surveillance.

[Sbane]

Seems like really discouraging numbers out of Italy, with new cases and death up again.  I realize they still down from their actual peak, but how have they not made more progress after being under national lockdown for a full month?  Maybe the deaths will still lag by a month, but how can they still be getting so many new infections?

Likely because they are testing more. The testing failure was a world wide problem, not just here in the US. Only a few countries got it right from the beginning like South Korea.