PA-Big Data Poll: Oz+2

[Sestak]

The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Just to be clear, the so-called "accuracy" of the "Big Data poll" comes from one guy's random tweet responses to Jack Posobiec. There's a reason 538 has them banned (even while giving high ratings to the other polls you mentioned alongside it).

[Sestak]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Note that Big Data has been banned from 538.

I know that, and there is a longstanding feud between Baris and Silver. Nevertheless, this does not undermine the overall thrust of my argument. Certain pollsters are considered to be the "gold standard" even though they are consistently and plainly wrong. The midterms in a few weeks will serve as another test of this, but I fully expect for people to continue denigrating pollsters they don't like even if such pollsters are proven correct.

Silver is pretty lenient with what polls he lets in. I'm quite inclined to believe that these polls are faked or that the methodology is so ad hoc that it doesn't matter if data is actually collected.

Big Data's ban may also have to do with the fact that Baris is an unabashed Trumpist.

So is Cahaly, and Trafalgar is still in the average (and highly rated!)