What does the LA election tell us about the remaining 2023 races?

[Skill and Chance]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

Agree with all of this.  It likely means MS won't even be close and VA R's now have more upside south of Richmond.  No reason to change KY, though.

[Skill and Chance]

OK, so going into a bit more detail on the VA legislative races.

HoD:  The Republican path to a hold probably just got a seat or 2 easier.  I would say it's back to more of a pure toss up overall vs. Lean D like some of the ratings had it.  Of note:

HD-82: Petersburg and surrounding rural areas south of the Richmond suburbs, R incumbent with little known Dem challenger who won the primary out of nowhere (Biden +10.7, Youngkin +2, 2022 House Dems +1)- A lot of analysts have this as a toss up and close to the decisive seat, probably because they are leaning on the Biden #'s.  I think it should be at least Lean R now.

HD-84: Suffolk and surrounding rural areas west of the Hampton Roads cities, technically no incumbent, but a Dem incumbent from a nearby district on the old map moved here to run (Biden +16.4, McAuliffe +2.3, 2022 House Dems +12)- This is probably the single best opportunity for an R upset in an expected D seat.  Dems are heavily dependent on rural black turnout here and the Dem candidate is extremely liberal (professional activist background, including organizing BLM protests in 2020).  He also just moved to the district this year from a near unanimous Dem seat he won on the previous map.  For all of these reasons, this was only being treated as Lean D and it might even be a toss up now.    

HD-89: Parts of Chesapeake and Portsmouth extending into surrounding rural areas, no incumbent (Biden +2.4, Youngkin +7.5, 2022 House Dems +2)- For some reason, this was being treated by some analysts as only Lean R.  I doubt it will even be competitive.

HD-94: Part of Norfolk, no incumbent (Biden +16.6, McAuliffe +4, 2022 House Dems +14)- not overly dependent on black turnout, includes a number of strong Dem trending suburban areas, probably still safe Dem.

HD-97: Inland part of Virginia Beach, R incumbent (Biden +12.3,  Youngkin  +2.2, 2022 House Dems +5)-  The CW is this would be a bit left of the decisive seat.  It is almost entirely urban, so it may not be subject to the same risks as the seats above, but it's still at least somewhat dependent on high black turnout/Dem margin.  I could see it actually being slightly right of the decisive seat.


The other Southside/Hampton Roads Dem seats are all Biden +20ish or better and double digits for 2022 House Dems, so probably little or no risk there.  

There is also a plurality Hispanic seat in NOVA that includes Manassas where the margin could be an interesting test case for reverse Dobbs backlash among Catholic Dems, but the toplines are just so Dem there's no way it flips and that area isn't exactly known for being devoutly religious.

Note Dems could still make up for this statewide by winning some Biden +5ish suburban seats around Richmond and NOVA.  


State Senate: Overall, much less Dem exposure to a rural non-white R shift as the 2.5X larger district size means the VRA seats in this chamber are all at least Biden +20ish and all include major cities.  Of  note:

SD-17: Southside VA from Suffolk to west of Emporia, no incumbent (Biden +7.0, Youngkin +5, 2022 House Dems +1)- This was already considered Lean R and the Louisiana results probably just reinforced the CW that the Biden numbers in a seat like this one are null and void going forward.  I would put it at Likely R now.

SD-24: Williamsburg area to northern Hampton Roads, Dem incumbent (Biden +8.8, Youngkin +3, 2022 House Dems +1)- This was widely considered to be the most likely 22nd Dem seat (so not strictly needed for control).  It might move to 23rd now.  Dems do have some real exposure here to lower black turnout/Dem margin, but they could counter it with strong college turnout in Williamsburg and/or from the surrounding suburbs that have moved notably Dem in the Trump era.  Tilt R would be reasonable.

SD-27: Fredericksburg and surrounding outer NOVA suburbs (Biden +5.8, Youngkin +8.5, 2022 House Dems +2.2)- Notable because it's quite possible this now jumps ahead of SD-24 for the most likely 22nd Dem seat.  There's a lot going on in this district.  On the one hand, that's a big Youngkin margin.  On the other hand, the 2022 result suggests significant Dobbs backlash.  A pro-choice independent on the ballot would seem to hurt Dem chances, but the very out-there Republican who narrowly lost the primary (practically his entire campaign was that the government should have completely ignored COVID) is also running a write-in campaign.  The Dem candidate is a veteran and small business owner who gives off moderate vibes.

In any event, the overall outlook for control of the chamber would still be Lean D, because R's would still need a Biden +13.1 NOVA upscale suburban seat or a Biden +16.7 Richmond upscale suburban seat for control.

[Skill and Chance]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

I have SD 16 and 31 toss up, SD 24 tilt R. HD 82 and 97 tilt R, HD 22 lean R, HD 65 toss up

Double digit Biden upscale suburban seats that voted left of statewide as toss ups definitely seems like an overreaction!

[Skill and Chance]

Nothing changes. This was never the year Democrats were going to win in Mississippi, but the key difference between Louisiana and the other two states is that Democrats are investing in the latter.

If anything, I'm more bullish on Democrats winning one or both houses in Virginia than I was yesterday, just because this morning I saw an ad from Republicans about abortion. Republicans can't win on abortion here.

many people said this, but do you have any data that proves this?

I don't have monetary figures (other than the appalling 35.8% turnout - down 10 points from the 2019 primary, and a larger drop from the 51% in the general), but what I'm reading suggests that Democrats weren't very interested in contesting this race from the start. They didn't educate the voters about Shawn Wilson or build the infrastructure and outreach needed to do well in Louisiana statewide like they did four and eight years ago. In fact, it sounds like JBE was more interested in (unsuccessfully) defeating a progressive state rep. than getting Wilson past 26%(!). Also, of the 71 unopposed candidates for Legislature, 44 were Republicans. Only 27 were Democrats.

That's a huge contrast to Andy Beshear's, Brandon Presley's, or the Virginia Democrats' situation, where Democrats are at least attempting to have a better showing in these states.

JBE only ever got through in Louisiana because he was seen as a quasi-independent, so that's unsurprising. 

I do think any reasonable observer has to conclude that Dems not trying was part of the issue here.  Yes, it's a datapoint in favor of the Deep South trending R, but it's also reminiscent of Nevada 2014 or Virginia 2009 in how extreme the turnout drop was.