UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think the notion that he ever had a personal vote in the seat is contentious - it went from a marginal to a very safe seat, but a lot of seats with similar demographics followed the same trajectory and nobody thinks Chris Pincher had a personal vote.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think the notion that he ever had a personal vote in the seat is contentious - it went from a marginal to a very safe seat, but a lot of seats with similar demographics followed the same trajectory and nobody thinks Chris Pincher had a personal vote.

From what I’ve read the worry is that he’ll take support from the various association figures locally; but seeing as the Conservatives don’t really rely on volunteers as much as Labour it’s unclear what difference could be made.

Bone is quite an active campaigner, but for the most part he has tended not to focus on his seat but on the more marginal territory of Corby & East Northamptonshire. Of course, given that that's a marginal because East Northants is rabidly Tory, and those are the areas which still have a critical mass of campaigners, the bigger issue may be that it'll piss off the membership in Pursglove's seat.

[EastAnglianLefty]

In fact McCartney tried to take the Labour whip, though he was turned down (and it's unlikely he'd have stuck to it for long.)

[EastAnglianLefty]

Reports that Damian Egan has been selected for Labour for Kingswood: https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1744764139912724543?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1744764139912724543%7Ctwgr%5Ed0c6b0bf881d5eff5d694623fa60339e987e084b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fvote-2012.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F18000%2Fkingswood-election%3Fpage%3D6

Currently the mayor of Lewisham, but he grew up in Kingswood. He was already due to be the candidate for the bit of the seat covering Kingswood proper, which is going into the new Bristol NE seat.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Allegedly only twelve votes were cast in the selection contest.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The other news of the day is that Sinn Fein MP Michelle Gildernew has announced that she’s running for the European Parliament in Ireland, and is expected to resign as MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Ultra-slim majority of 57 over the UUP at the last election. But that was an odd race (there were a bunch of alliances set up between the parties in 2019, on a seat-by-seat basis), where Sinn Fein, Alliance and the SDLP all ran, but the DUP stood aside for the UUP, so things could be rather different depending on who stands, and if polling continues to shift.

I'm curious whether demographically over the last 4 years there would have been any change in the Catholic vs Protestant population in that seat. Seems like the general trend in NI is for the Protestant share of the population to be steadily shrinking

Census data on religion is at the moment only available for local authorities, and F&ST contains part of two separate local authorities (and in both cases, the less Catholic part.) With that codicil, between 2011 and 2021 in both of the component local authorities the Catholic share grew but only barely, whilst the Protestant figure fell and most of the balance was a rise in those not brought up in a religion.

In practice, most of those "Nones" will be part of the Protestant community, even if they aren't religiously Protestant.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I agree, but there are multiple reports the Tories are fighting a remarkably desultory campaign.

Still, they got 62% in Wellingborough in 2019. Even a North Shropshire level campaign adjusted for the current environment shouldn’t be at risk of coming third behind Reform UK.

If the Tories can't hold this seat then no seat is safe and not only will the next general elections be bloodbath the next general election will likely surpass the 1997 election in terms of seat gain and swing.

The latter half of the sentence may be true, but the former half isn't. The Tory majority in Wellingborough was extremely large in 2019, but not many of those are people who could only ever conceive of voting Tory. There are plenty of other seats where the share of the electorate who will vote Tory no matter what is much higher.

[EastAnglianLefty]

All this is in line with a single-minded focus on (even the mere appearance of) anti-Semitism from Starmer. To the exclusion of anything else.

The comments reported recently just seem in line with what has been reported by mainstream media (that there was an intelligence failure). Labour's problem is that they couldn't have picked anyone who was supportive of Starmer's line on Israel without that defining the by-election, so presumably they picked someone who would neutralize the issue (in their hopes). But now the news will be entirely defined by their mushiness on Gaza.

This is not correct. It went beyond the stories of an intelligence failure and of Netanyahu having neglected the Gaza front at the expense of the West Bank, to saying that Netanyahu was actively aware that the attack was coming and allowed it to take place.

Ali's statements (including the new ones) have some basis in factual reports, but go beyond what they say and put them together in ways that are conspiratorial.

[EastAnglianLefty]

When has Rochdale ever NOT elected someone completely horrible? Liz Lynne, I guess?

Tony Lloyd was good and Paul Rowen had a decent reputation.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The funny thing is if it was just Kingswood tonight it would probably be written up as ‘solid, but average win’ for Labour- I guess labour were starting from a relatively high base, greens clearly did well (am I right the area is a bit new world- like some parts of the south west?) and reform did well.

Also I guess it helps the ex member resigned for political reasons rather than a scandal

Kingswood isn't a new age area - Kingswood itself is working-class suburbia, the southern part of the seat lower middle-class suburbia. But it does neighbour Bristol, which is a Green stronghold, so they've got access to a reasonable campaigning infrastructure and some of those who can't afford to buy in Bristol will have ended up there instead.

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://twitter.com/ashkairaa/status/1763412514014961860

https://twitter.com/kennardmatt/status/1763470670799777861

That's what Labor deserves for being pro-genocide.

Labour voted for an immediate ceasefire last week.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There's continuous development right the way from Littleborough to Bamford with no sign of countryside between them, whereas it'll take you half an hour to drive from Saddleworth to Littleborough, mostly via B-roads.