Who do you WANT to win the GOP nomination?

[Psychic Octopus]

Hey Poundingtherock:

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/02/is_sarah_palin.php

http://www.aolnews.com/the-grid/article/sarah-palin-hits-new-low-in-poll/19354785

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/10/AR2010021004708.html

While we support different candidates, it is odd that you consider Palin to be near-destined for the nomination; She has a lot going against her, man.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Romney, Giuliani, or Gingrich would be fine with me. The rest, eh, not so much. Gary Johnson seemed like he had promise, but he's becoming more and more like a Ron Paul II, and I don't want to get involved in that.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Romney, Giuliani, or Gingrich would be fine with me. The rest, eh, not so much. Gary Johnson seemed like he had promise, but he's becoming more and more like a Ron Paul II, and I don't want to get involved in that.

What about Michael Dale Huckabee and Sarah Louise Palin?

[Free Palestine]

Ron Paul or Gary Johnson.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I forgot to include Senator Rand Paul also.

[Phony Moderate]

Scott Brown, or possibly Gary Johnson or Rudy Giuliani.

[evan bayh]

john thune

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Robert Kelleher

[Poundingtherock]

Nik,

I do consider a strong favorite if the competition is mainly between her, Romney, and Pawlenty.

She has led by margins of 3-7 points in three of the last four 2012 polls.  I don't see why you would believe she has a lot going against her....everyone has a lot going against them!

If you are arguing she faces an uphill climb in a general election, I'd agree at this moment.

If you are arguing that she faces an uphill climb in a primary, I'd disagree because I place a lot of stock in GOP favorables and the current 2012 primary polling.

[Sewer]

Robert Kelleher

lol i wish

[Smash255]

Actually, Pbrower, Palin's favorable rating in the Washington Post poll among Republicans is 70%.

Obama's favorable rating in the NY Times poll among Democrats is 71%.

Now, the NY Times poll and Washington Post poll use different methodologies but if you compare her numbers in the NY Times poll with Obama's numbers, he's not that much more popular than her among independents.  He's at 36% favorables in this poll, she was at 30% if I recall in the last NY Times poll.

Obama has a net favorable of +5 in the CBS/NYT poll, 39-34.     The last CBS/NYT poll on Palin was a net favorable of -15.  26 favorable/41 unfavorable.  That is a pretty large difference

In the last ABC/WP poll of each of them on favorable.  Obama was 58% favorable 40% unfavorable for a net of +18.  Palin, well 37% favorable, 55%  unfavorable.  For a net of -18. 

These numbers aren't even remotely close. 

[Poundingtherock]

Smash,

We don't know what her most recent favorable rating is in the NY Times/CBS News poll is because it didn't poll her.  The one you cite is from early November.

We don't know what Obama's favorable rating is in the Washington Post poll because it didn't poll him.

NY Times/CBS News shows his favorable rating lower than his approval rating.

[Poundingtherock]

Smash,

Even if I apply your comparison between an early November CBS/NY Times poll with the most recent NY Times/CBS News poll, my point that Obama and Palin favorable ratings among indies in the two polls aren't far apart is accurate.

He's at 36% in the most recent poll NY Times/CBS News poll among indies.
She was at 30% in the the early November Ny Times/CBS News poll among independents.

In any event, you've only confirmed that Pbrower was completely wrong when he claimed that I was wrong to write that Obama's favorable rating was 39% in the most recent NY Times/CBS News poll.

[Smash255]

Smash,

Even if I apply your comparison between an early November CBS/NY Times poll with the most recent NY Times/CBS News poll, my point that Obama and Palin favorable ratings among indies in the two polls aren't far apart is accurate.

He's at 36% in the most recent poll NY Times/CBS News poll among indies.
She was at 30% in the the early November Ny Times/CBS News poll among independents.

In any event, you've only confirmed that Pbrower was completely wrong when he claimed that I was wrong to write that Obama's favorable rating was 39% in the most recent NY Times/CBS News poll.

A difference of 11% in net favorables among Independents isn't exactly small.....  This poll had Obama at 36-30 among Independents with a net of +6, Palin's January CBS/NYT  poll had het at 30-35 among Independents.  +6 net for Obama compared to -5 for Palin.   Anyway when looking at Obama's favorables to Palin's, the numbers aren't even remotely close.  Obama's favorables are constantly in the positive territory, Palin's are in the negative territory. 

[Smash255]

Smash,

We don't know what her most recent favorable rating is in the NY Times/CBS News poll is because it didn't poll her.  The one you cite is from early November.

We don't know what Obama's favorable rating is in the Washington Post poll because it didn't poll him.

NY Times/CBS News shows his favorable rating lower than his approval rating.

No, Palin's poll is from early Feb.  The reason the favorable poll is shown lower than his approval is the methodology.  CBS constantly has a much higher undecided bracket in their favorable polls, than approval. 

[Poundingtherock]

Smash,

I stand corrected on the date of the NY Times/CBS News poll.

I would argue that 36% to 30% isn't a huge difference (I'm not as big a fan of looking at net) among independents.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think the current polls really mean that much anyway, except in that they show that there is no one person dominating the 2012 field.  It's too early to read more into it than that.  In assessing Palin's chances, I don't really look to the current polls as much as I just make a predictive judgment of how well I think she'd hold up in a national campaign.

On that score, I don't think she'd do well, as I think she's a gaffe machine, she has no significant support from the GOP establishment and is unlikely to get any any time soon, she's supremely vulnerable on the experience issue and would have to defend against the charge that she quit halfway through her term as governor for no apparent reason, and she's got this 19 year old kid running around the country telling tabloid stories about her family and taking her to court over custody of her grandson.

Now, if she was 40 or 50 points ahead of Romney and everyone else in the polls (a la Bob Dole circa late 1994 / early 1995), then *maybe* I'd think that she has a chance at overcoming all of that, but the polls just show that it's anyone's ball game, and I don't see her as being a player who's up to the task.

[Katherine Harris is legit]

stay on topic



damn trolls

[Vosem]

He isn't running...but Jim Edgar.

Out of those who are running...Mitt Romney.

[ScottM]

I forgot to mention Rick Santorum earlier.

[k-onmmunist]

Ron Paul

[sentinel]

Sarah Palin so she can lose to Obama.

Who is best for the country? I think Romney.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Anyone but Romney.

?

Giuliani's not a candidate, but if he were then of course I'd say "Anyone but Romney or Giuliani".

Just checking. What are your feelings on Thune?

Thune is awesome!

This.

[James L. Buckley]

Ron Paul is my favorite, but odds are he won't even run.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Anyone but Romney.

?

Giuliani's not a candidate, but if he were then of course I'd say "Anyone but Romney or Giuliani".

Just checking. What are your feelings on Thune?

Thune is awesome!

This.

What's "amazing" about Thune?