Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't declining in popularity it's a 53/48 Election right now in the Senate, his NPVI was 51/46% and Gallup has it 50/45, it's a 278 so with AZ and GA Senate races as battlegrounds

The reason why Ds might loose the H they had 230 seats and this time  220 Redistricting is gonna come down to CA, IL, NY for D's while KS, IA, TX, NC and FL will come down to Rs

NEUTRAL CYCLE OR ENVIRONMENT

Govs D's loose KS, pickup MA, MD, AZ and NH if Molly Kelly runs which will help HASSAN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why the D's want to pass the For the People's Act so we don't lose 5 seats in TX, we're gonna lose 3 combined seats already in TX and FL, but it could get ugly, 5 in TX and 3 seats in FL up to 10 total that's the loss of the H right there

[Devils30]

You can't do this and not include NY, IL, MD which will give the Dems 6 or so back plus possible NM-2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wàs referring to worst case scenario, but if Covid sticks around the D's can loose both Houses of Congress, but of course if Breyer retires, that's the best case scenario



We don't know what Breyer is gonna do next yr, he might get so mad when ACB overturns Roe he might retire, but he also said he doesn't want his seat to be used for Crt packing

He's gonna retire before 2025, before next Prez Election, anyways because D's have a good chance to keep at least 50 D's in the Senate winning 278 WI and PA but losing AZ and GA

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), July 28-29, 1005 adults

Approve 54 (nc)
Disapprove 42 (+2)

Approval by party:

D: 91 (+2)
I: 53 (-4)
R: 16 (-1)

[pbrower2a]

Which poll do you want to believe?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 54% poll, but IA, NC and OH Sen races are definitely in play, not so much FL, due to DeSANTIS, D's need to put all their monies into those 3 Senate seats unless Grayson, not Demings win primary, there was an internal FL that had Grayson 5 pts back, and Demings is 20

[GeorgiaModerate]

Which poll do you want to believe?

The averages.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's as of today would win a 304 or 291 map with Biden Approvals at 50/45% exactly as they were in Election night 2020 51/46 with the Senate, the question is will Breyer retires next yr and will Ds get VR passed or will females get so mad at Rs to rise up and keep the D's in control of both Chambers due to Jan 6th insurrection

Fink, Ryan, Beasley and Gross are wave insurance in the Senate and females like Tim Ryan and would consider voting for him and Vance and Mandel are bad candidates, but Rs in Gov race is a slam dunk and OH split it's votes in 2018 Sen and Gov

We will see in 500 days, D's can win NC due to Coopers high Approvals

[wbrocks67]

Which poll do you want to believe?

The averages.

Yep. I also think the Ipsos poll is a great example of the "Independent battle" that's been going on. Pollsters need to be careful about the Independent samples, because it certainly seems like they've been getting a more conservative "indie" sample in many. Ipsos seems closer to how'd you expect it to be (maybe 50/50 with true independents)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Which poll do you want to believe?

The averages.

Yep. I also think the Ipsos poll is a great example of the "Independent battle" that's been going on. Pollsters need to be careful about the Independent samples, because it certainly seems like they've been getting a more conservative "indie" sample in many. Ipsos seems closer to how'd you expect it to be (maybe 50/50 with true independents)

Ipsos also tends to have much smaller Independent subsamples (typically ~100 out of 1000) -- which is more realistic, but can lead to some wild swings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't mean to be a hack Gallup has it it 50/45 and Biden Approvals were 51/46% exactly as they were on ELECTION NIGHT IF THE ELECTION WAS HELD TODAY WI and PA would go D for S and GA goes R for Herschel Walker 51/49 Senate H is undetermined

But, but, but WI Leans R and GA Leans D's, no it's not the Two have been voting partisan trends except for 1992/2020 plus GA Rs are taking over all Election Board Personnel


That is the best case scenario, and that means a Neutral Environment, pOLLS ARE JUST THAT FOR POLL WATCHING


VR isn't gonna make much differences Gregg Abbott is leading his primary 80/20 and Ron DeSantis is leading 60/40%, plus SCOTUS CAN OVERTURN ANY ACT OF CONGRESS AND BAN ON GERRYMANDERING WILL BE SUBJECT TO OVERTURNED BY ACB OR KAVANAUGH

[pbrower2a]

D's as of today would win a 304 or 291 map with Biden Approvals at 50/45% exactly as they were in Election night 2020 51/46 with the Senate, the question is will Breyer retires next yr and will Ds get VR passed or will females get so mad at Rs to rise up and keep the D's in control of both Chambers due to Jan 6th insurrection

Fink, Ryan, Beasley and Gross are wave insurance in the Senate and females like Tim Ryan and would consider voting for him and Vance and Mandel are bad candidates, but Rs in Gov race is a slam dunk and OH split it's votes in 2018 Sen and Gov

We will see in 500 days, D's can win NC due to Coopers high Approvals

270 electoral votes means that one has been elected President (or Vice-President). Even 538 electoral votes does not give one dictatorial powers. Ronald Reagan, who won  525 electoral votes in 1984, had no more powers than did George W. Bush in 2000, who won 'only' 271 that year.

Only when we are about 300 days from the Presidential election do we get a good idea of whether the incumbent President will or will not be elected. That will be soon after New Year's Day -- before the Iowa caucuses. By then we will have a limited number of potential swing states that will winning and losing, if not the scale. One of those will be the tipping-point state of the forthcoming election. As late as January most of the polling will still be approval ratings for the incumbent President. By March we will see match-ups, but even then the match-ups will still be derivative of approval ratings.

In the electoral race that one absolutely must win, the average elected official facing the average challenger gains about 6.5% from early support to get the vote-share in a binary election. So let us suppose that the state in question is "Wisconsin" (as in 2020) and Joe Biden has an approval rating of 44% there as an average. In such an event he has a slightly-better-than-50% chance of winning his re-election bid.     If that average is about 43%, then he has less than a 50% chance of winning Wisconsin. The chance of winning drops off rapidly as the approval number goes away from 43.5% and the chance of losing falls off rapidly goes above 43.5%.

All politicians typically see themselves in need of campaigning if they want to be re-elected, and it is a habit that they cannot shuck off any more than a heroin addict can give up heroin easily. Governing and legislating are messy business in which the climate is often rancorous and people get pessimistic. Campaigning allows one to recapitulate one's achievements and suggest what one will do in a sequel. Most politicians show why they won the previous time. Of course, if things are going badly enough, no exuberant optimism can rescue a foundering situation.

That is basically Nate Silver's Myth of 538, only adapted for the Presidency. Silver applies his study to gubernatorial and senatorial campaigns, and not to the Presidency... but beginning in 1960, all but three Presidential nominees (Ford, the elder Bush, and Trump) had been elected as Governors or Senators. OK, the elder Bush had been elected Vice-President, so that chips away from one loss. 

Silver does not mention the quality of the opponent in that study; neither does he mention breaking scandals (usually the approval ratings are down -- way down -- before the scandal hits the news due to the unwillingness of journalists to laud politicians about to be exposed as crooks), or events. Here is what I see: an incumbent doing reasonably well, who is not being torn to pieces by an incessant stream of negative advertising from special-interest groups (that explains how Russ Feingold could lose to the awful Ron Johnson; Ron Johnson fully believes the plutocratic principle in which "he who owns the gold makes the rules", and that can make all the difference in the world in a campaign), usually gets re-elected. Choosing the wrong side of the controversy in one's state or a state in which one absolutely, positively must win, is one way to lose.

       

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We won in 2020 CO, and AZ and lost AL, we will win WI and PA and loose GA, GA and WI have voted partisan trends except for 1992/2020 in Senate

You told me yourself that the South Moved Right in 2010/2o14 look at the states we lost on 2014 and 2018 Senate races MO, IN, ND, FL in 2018 and 2014 CO, WVA, SD, MT, AR and LA, we lost Blue dogs not Progressives in GA

The myth is that WI staying R and GA going D because All the Rs are taking over the Election boards replacing Ds Afro Americans

Gallup natl poll of Biden is exactly the same as his NPI he had in 2020 50/45 v 51/46% in 2020, you start out with a 304 map, take GA away and that is a 291

Biden hasn't Eradicated Covid like he said or Prosecuted Trump and even if VR passed Kennedy already said Gerrymandering districts are okay, Crts can overturn an Act of Congress except for Constitutional Amendment or Crt packing, the Rs are already taking D's in IL to Crt

Polls are for poll watching we all know that Senate will be 51/49 and or probably H goes R and  D's win KS, AZ, MD, MA and NH Govs

But, we still have 500 days but D's are in trouble in FL and TX because Greg Abbott isn't losing and neither is DeSantis and those are the states the D's can lose up to 10 seats in Redistricting


Breyer may retire but it can help D's, but he also said he doesn't want his seat used for Crt packing


D's didn't contemplate Covid stocking around for the entirei mdterms, Biden himself said Covid will be almost over with 70% of people getting vaccinated and guess what Warnock and Ossoff ran off of 1400, and we need another stimulus and Congress is talking about Debt Ceiling

[pbrower2a]

COLORADO:

Strongly approve..... 33%
Somewhat approve......23
Somewhat disapprove.... 11
Strongly disapprove...28
VOL: (Don't know/Refused).. 4
APPROVE (NET).... 56%
DISAPPROVE (NET)..... 40

(favorable 56-41, which is about the same)

Donald Trump (favorable -unfavorable) 37-60
QAnon (favorable-unfavorable) 8-57

https://lede-admin.coloradosun.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2021/07/CO-Mountaineer-Q2-Survey-Topline-F06.24.21.pdf

NEW JERSEY:

Biden approval 56. disapproval 36

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/eagleton-poll-finds-murphy-favorability-job-approvals-at-a-solid-55/

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[Matty]

Both the NJ and the CO poll suggest biden national approval is NOT in the double digits like some polls show.

[wbrocks67]

Both the NJ and the CO poll suggest biden national approval is NOT in the double digits like some polls show.

should be noted that both those polls are very old, not sure why they're being posted.

but funny enough they both line up with Biden's approval about +8-ish right now, which is exactly what 538 shows

[pbrower2a]

I was not sure that they had been posted.

[Lief 🗽]

Tremendous numbers in the Gold Standard IBD/TIPP poll (changes since last month in parentheses). Looks like folks are loving the bipartisan infrastructure bill!

Adults:
Approve: 52 (+2)
Disapprove: 34 (-3)

Registered Voters:
Approve: 57 (+3)
Disapprove: 34 (-4)

Investors:
Approve: 69 (+7)
Disapprove: 26 (-7)

https://www.investors.com/politics/president-biden-job-approval-bounces-defying-first-year-obama-swoon/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol his polls are no better than 52/48 or 50/45 or 51/46% he hasn't lost ground since Election day it's a 304 map.

Obama lost ground because we had 59 votes not 50 and Lieberman didn't want to get rid of Filibuster and DC Statehood was pushed and Obamacare was unpopular

[pbrower2a]

Investors 69-26 approval?

This is usually a very conservative group of people who reliably support Republican candidates and ideological conservatism. It's not a huge group, but it is a hugely-disproportionate source of campaign funds.

Many could be now seeing Donald Trump as the Frankenstein monster of American politics. He looked useful at one time for motivating people to disparage liberals...

[Person Man]

Tremendous numbers in the Gold Standard IBD/TIPP poll (changes since last month in parentheses). Looks like folks are loving the bipartisan infrastructure bill!

Adults:
Approve: 52 (+2)
Disapprove: 34 (-3)

Registered Voters:
Approve: 57 (+3)
Disapprove: 34 (-4)

Investors:
Approve: 69 (+7)
Disapprove: 26 (-7)

https://www.investors.com/politics/president-biden-job-approval-bounces-defying-first-year-obama-swoon/

We need to tweet this. /s

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tremendous numbers in the Gold Standard IBD/TIPP poll (changes since last month in parentheses). Looks like folks are loving the bipartisan infrastructure bill!

Adults:
Approve: 52 (+2)
Disapprove: 34 (-3)

Registered Voters:
Approve: 57 (+3)
Disapprove: 34 (-4)

Investors:
Approve: 69 (+7)
Disapprove: 26 (-7)

https://www.investors.com/politics/president-biden-job-approval-bounces-defying-first-year-obama-swoon/

We need to tweet this. /s

Former guy, and world's sorest loser, Deranged Donny never had numbers like this! How many "infrastructure weeks" did he have and fail with? At least as many times as he's gone bankrupt, I'm sure! Sad!

[Person Man]

Tremendous numbers in the Gold Standard IBD/TIPP poll (changes since last month in parentheses). Looks like folks are loving the bipartisan infrastructure bill!

Adults:
Approve: 52 (+2)
Disapprove: 34 (-3)

Registered Voters:
Approve: 57 (+3)
Disapprove: 34 (-4)

Investors:
Approve: 69 (+7)
Disapprove: 26 (-7)

https://www.investors.com/politics/president-biden-job-approval-bounces-defying-first-year-obama-swoon/

We need to tweet this. /s

Former guy, and world's sorest loser, Deranged Donny never had numbers like this! How many "infrastructure weeks" did he have and fail with? At least as many times as he's gone bankrupt, I'm sure! Sad!

Demented Donny!

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Tremendous numbers in the Gold Standard IBD/TIPP poll (changes since last month in parentheses). Looks like folks are loving the bipartisan infrastructure bill!

Adults:
Approve: 52 (+2)
Disapprove: 34 (-3)

Registered Voters:
Approve: 57 (+3)
Disapprove: 34 (-4)

Investors:
Approve: 69 (+7)
Disapprove: 26 (-7)

https://www.investors.com/politics/president-biden-job-approval-bounces-defying-first-year-obama-swoon/

We need to tweet this. /s

Former guy, and world's sorest loser, Deranged Donny never had numbers like this! How many "infrastructure weeks" did he have and fail with? At least as many times as he's gone bankrupt, I'm sure! Sad!

Bad (or sick) guy!