National Tracking Poll Thread

[Umengus]

OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

In the last few years, many conservatives have shifted their ID from Republican to Independent. This leads both to a bigger margin for Dems and a bigger lead for Republicans among Is. It doesn't change the overall composition of the electorate on its own.

I'm starting to go insane with the incredible deja vu feeling of seeing this happen every single time poll numbers are posted. Thank goodness for you, man, because I don't have the patience to keep explaining to Umengus/Cliffy why they're wrong in every single freaking thread ever created regarding a poll.

You can ignore me if you don't like what I write...

[Umengus]

Umengus

Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?

that's it. Especially at national level where you know that you will not have a D+8 or R+8 election. And my guess for now is between D+0 and D+2

[Umengus]

Umengus

Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?

that's it. Especially at national level where you know that you will not have a D+8 or R+8 election. And my guess for now is between D+0 and D+2

Exactly, that's YOUR guess. And you know nothing about US politics . When will you understand that polls call people randomly, and there are more democrats than republicans because many conservative (tea party) and moderate republicans (anti-tea party) consider themselves independents now?

I'm on this forum for 9 years so I think that I know very well US politics.

Proof for the rest of your affirmation ?

[Umengus]

Monday Summary

PPP
Obama 48
Romney 48

Rasmussen
Obama 49
Romney 47

RAND (Rounded)
Obama 48
Romney 46

Gallup
Obama 45
Romney 51 (-1)

Reuters
Obama 46 (-1) [Change since Sat, Skipped reporting Sunday]
Romney 46

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 43 (+1)


Lead Summary
TIPP Obama +4 (R+2)
RAND Obama +2
PPP  TIE
Reuters* TIE (R+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +2
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
  
Average: Romney +0.3 (R+0.3)

thanks

[Umengus]

Rasmussen:

Romney 50% (nc)

Obama 46% (nc)

Swing state tracking:

Romney 50% (nc)

Obama 46% (+1)

It sounds like a debate bump may be on the way:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

I don't think. The Romney +4 was the outlier. romney +2 is the norm.

PPP: "Tuesday was a tie in our national tracking and a good Saturday for Romney rolled off, hence the overall tie"

[Umengus]

Gallup is bipolar, let's just admit it. Or they reflect an America that is bipolar.

"53% of voters approve of the Job the current president is doing, but almost as many want the other guy in office instead." People say Americans are self hating masochists, and perhaps we are.

53 % of adults...

[Umengus]

Gallup is unchanged from yesterday, 50-47.

not bad...

there is maybe a little obama bounce (1-2 p) in the pipeline but it will be over monday.

[Umengus]

TIPP

Obama: 47 (-1)
Romney: 45

[Umengus]

PPP Tracker

Obama - 48
Romney - 48

with party id D +6 and whites at 70 %

Romney leads independents by 12.

I don't buy a Obama lead in Ohio with this result at national level.

[Umengus]

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008. Rand is unknow and has a very special methodology... Even PPP show a tie with a D+6 party id. If you apply the same party id, ras and ppp give the same result.

[Umengus]

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

[Umengus]

IBD/TIPP

Obama-46.6
Romney-44.5

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11

[Umengus]

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

And again, which election was more recent?

it was not a presidential election. And the best of Rasmussen is his national tracking poll. His state polls can be wrong sometimes.

[Umengus]

IBD/TIPP

Obama-46.6
Romney-44.5

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11

As you know, of course, if Democrats were a smaller share of the sample, Romney wouldn't be doing so well with independents.

wrong and ppp proved that 2 weeks ago with his Romney +2 and +4 polls. Rasmussen says the same. Gallup too.

[Umengus]

The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

[Umengus]

The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

A vote for Obama has become a vote to debunk thousands of misconceptions about the nature of the universe.

If Obama loses, the Party IDers win.

a obama win will be due to a good democratic turnout= D+3, D+4,...

[Umengus]

NOTE: Rasmussen Reports is based in Asbury Park, New Jersey and we were hit hard by Hurricane Sandy. We are operating on battery power and have limited access to the Internet. However, our survey interview calls are placed from a different location, so data gathering was able to continue. Today, we will release only data from the Presidential Tracking Poll. We hope to resume a more complete schedule tomorrow.

and

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters now think President Obama will win. That’s the first time it’s fallen below 50% all year. Forty-one percent (41%) believe Romney will win.

[Umengus]

It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.

[Umengus]

PPP for daily kos (10/25-10/28):

O: 49
R: 49

Party id: D 39 R 37 I 24

Romney leads Indies by 6.

[Umengus]

It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.

So then why does Scott even bother to take the extra step of picking up the phone when his weighing system produces the result no matter what?

the same party id can give different results.

[Umengus]

I thnk that there is a little bump for Obama due to the storm.

[Umengus]

Rasmussen have it tied at 48-48

I'm not surprised. I think that there is a little obama bump due to the storm but I think that the bump will be over monday.

[Umengus]

Rasmussen have it tied at 48-48

I'm not surprised. I think that there is a little obama bump due to the storm but I think that the bump will be over monday.

Possibly, but bear in mind that the movement in most tracker polls, national polls and the state polls began before the storm if you look at the survey dates.

not really in the ras and ppp polls.

[Umengus]

PPP

Obama-49
Romney-48

Obama now leads with Independents 50/44

and yet it's move further to D+7 and he's up 1? and independents?  pretty screwy.

because democrats at only 81 % (sandy technical effect ?)... Strange poll.

[Umengus]

rand poll

Obama 48 (-1)
Romney: 46 (+1)