National Tracking Poll Thread

[Brittain33]

Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

Good grief, they are delusional.

Why? Because Romney is ahead? I don't know if you know this, but this election is far from over.  Nobody knows who is going to win.

Jeff, let's say for now that it's truly a knife-edge race and "nobody knows who is going to win." If so, a five-point lead by Romney is indicating a sizable chance that Romney has sewn up the race and can't lose. That's inconsistent with "nobody knows who is going to win," and the state polling has shown consistently that Obama is favored to win by a narrow margin.

[Lief 🗽]

IBD/TIPP essentially unchanged from yesterday, though Obama's lead increases from 2% to 2.3%.

Obama: 46.9%
Romney: 44.6%

[Likely Voter]

Friday Summary (w/UPI)

Rand:      Obama +6  (O+2) 
TIPP:      Obama +2  (-)
UPI*:      Obama +1  (R+1)
Reuters:   Obama +1  (O+2)
PPP:       TIED      (R+1)
ABC:       Romney +1 (O+2)
Rasmussen: Romney +3 (-)
Gallup:    Romney +5 (R+2)
 
Average:   Obama +0.1 (O+0.2)


*UPI Poll 1 day old

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Gallup remains the outlier.

[ZuWo]

Gallup remains the outlier.

And RAND, of course.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Gallup remains the outlier.

And RAND, of course.

RAND isn't included in most polling averages.

[Speed of Sound]

Gallup remains the outlier.

And RAND, of course.

RAND isn't included in most polling averages.

It is in our own, however.

[pepper11]

Gallup remains the outlier.

O +6, O +2, O +1, O+1, TIED, R + 1, R + 3, R + 5

You did not take statistics.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Can someone confirm that ABC/WaPo only count the 'certain to vote', and don't include those who will 'probably vote'?

[Likely Voter]

If you pull the high and low polls (Rand and Gallup) then today's average is a tie. Not that I think that's the right way to do things. I don't think you can completely dismiss any poll. If Gallup's assessment of the electorate (notably the white/non-white mix) is correct, then Romney is going to win, probably in a big way. I'm guessing the Rand mix shows the opposite (although not sure they have revealed their demographics).   Right now the difference in polling comes down to a combo of random noise and LV model assumptions (and in some cases active weighting).

In a couple of weeks we will know who was 'right' but for now there is no consensus in the results because the assumptions are different.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Can someone confirm that ABC/WaPo only count the 'certain to vote', and don't include those who will 'probably vote'?

Daily Kos had some stuff about this last night, and yes, ABC only counts the "certain" crowd. And they eliminate half of them too.

[Joe Biden 2020]

What site can I go to other than politico that shows the national polls?  For some reason, Politico.com has no polls from today.  I don't know if there aren't any, or they just haven't updated them, yet.

[Lief 🗽]

Real Clear Politics, Pollster.com, Talking Points Memo, Politicalwire.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Cool, thanks!

[Badger]

PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.

Racial solidarity is very important to you, isn't it Krazen?

No, but winning the election is. The polls show that the path of victory leans toward rallying white males who favor God, guns, proper marriage, and football.

Oh bull$%#t. Your recent comments elsewhere regarding "the war on whites" makes your racism not even latent.

Yet again, another poster who can't distinguish the VERY wide difference between "principled conservative" and "racist ass".

[krazen1211]

PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.

Racial solidarity is very important to you, isn't it Krazen?

No, but winning the election is. The polls show that the path of victory leans toward rallying white males who favor God, guns, proper marriage, and football.

Oh bull$%#t. Your recent comments elsewhere regarding "the war on whites" makes your racism not even latent.

Yet again, another poster who can't distinguish the VERY wide difference between "principled conservative" and "racist ass".

Now its racist to vote against barack obama? You're a funny guy! By the way, recent polls show white males going for Romney by 30 points.

[Badger]

PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.

Racial solidarity is very important to you, isn't it Krazen?

No, but winning the election is. The polls show that the path of victory leans toward rallying white males who favor God, guns, proper marriage, and football.

Oh bull$%#t. Your recent comments elsewhere regarding "the war on whites" makes your racism not even latent.

Yet again, another poster who can't distinguish the VERY wide difference between "principled conservative" and "racist ass".

Now its racist to vote against barack obama? You're a funny guy! By the way, recent polls show white males going for Romney by 30 points.

In what alternate universe did I say anything remotely like that? You're a delusional guy!

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

[Ty440]

PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.

Racial solidarity is very important to you, isn't it Krazen?

No, but winning the election is. The polls show that the path of victory leans toward rallying white males who favor God, guns, proper marriage, and football.

Oh bull$%#t. Your recent comments elsewhere regarding "the war on whites" makes your racism not even latent.

Yet again, another poster who can't distinguish the VERY wide difference between "principled conservative" and "racist ass".

Now its racist to vote against barack obama? You're a funny guy! By the way, recent polls show white males going for Romney by 30 points.

Not here in the great state of Ohio they aren't.

[krazen1211]

In what alternate universe did I say anything remotely like that? You're a delusional guy!

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Haha! You're a funny guy!

If there's block voting, its by nonwhite females. The Republican party is forced to look elsewhere due to this block voting.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In what alternate universe did I say anything remotely like that? You're a delusional guy!

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Haha! You're a funny guy!

If there's block voting, its by nonwhite females. The Republican party is forced to look elsewhere due to this block voting.

Or you know... pursue policies that will attract them?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PPP Tracker

Obama - 48
Romney - 48

[Lief 🗽]

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jesus

[J. J.]

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

JJ... you're not stupid. If you've read his posts enough, you know exactly what he means, and no amount of feigned outrage will change it.

[J. J.]

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

JJ... you're not stupid. If you've read his posts enough, you know exactly what he means, and no amount of feigned outrage will change it.

Not feigned outrage. 

I think it perfectly reasonable to look at demographic groups and cheer when your side's demographic group turns out, or more strongly moves to your candidate.

I think it is the worst hypocrisy to assign a racist reason when the other side does the same thing.