India 2014 - Results

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42 minutes to go!

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http://eciresults.nic.in/

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I will go out on a limb, be extra optimistic, and say NDA 220 As bad as anything else

10 minutes to go.

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This is tragic. A Nazi PM of India is dangerous for the world.

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Guys, just keep in mind, a lot of these leads are based on a few thousand votes (mostly postal) each. Though, of course, it is clear that BJP wins big, for each particular seat we should not, yet, be very confident.

Though it does seem likely that BJP will win Trivandrum.

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Awful result. I wonder, how may lives will it cost.

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Well, the people showed up en force and voted. They made their choice. They are responsible for it.

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I am not as despondent over this win as the rest of you are, even if he does strike me as Vladimir Putin's Indian protege. Honestly what could the west/US have done to prevent the BJP's return to power?

Nothing. Neither could it do much about the Sumatra tsunami. But it is a tragedy nevertheless - and, probably, the one that will result in an order of magnitude more deaths (Indian, mostly).

And, no, he is not Putin protege by any notion. But he might turn out to be an ally - which would take the disaster back home to the rest of us.

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Just to show how effective the NDA is in concentrating their vote in the right places.  In Odisha the UPA actually outpolled NDA 26.9% vs 21.5% but won 0 seats versus 3 for NDA.  Of course BJD swept the other 18.

Actually, this might be too early. None of the Orisha results has declared, and, as of this moment, BJP only leads in 1 (barely), BJD in 20.

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It's actually quite depressing in UP: Congress is down more than two dozen seats, and they're only holding on to two seats in the state: Sonia Gandhi's seat, and Rahul Gandhi's seat (where he's ahead at the moment).

Well, his lead is over a lakh now. He should win.

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BSP and DMK both wiped out.  BSP lost all 21 seats and DMK lost all 18 seats.  JD(U) goes from 20 to 2.   BJD actually ended up with 18 which is 4 more than in 20009.  So BJD managed to blunt the BJP Modi wave in a place where BJP does have some strength.  Is is interesting that BJD managed to beat back Modi but JD(U) did not in Bihar.

Actually, if I am getting it right, BJD is on track to getting 20 seats. Or is the ECI webpage wrong?

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BSP and DMK both wiped out.  BSP lost all 21 seats and DMK lost all 18 seats.  JD(U) goes from 20 to 2.   BJD actually ended up with 18 which is 4 more than in 20009.  So BJD managed to blunt the BJP Modi wave in a place where BJP does have some strength.  Is is interesting that BJD managed to beat back Modi but JD(U) did not in Bihar.

Actually, if I am getting it right, BJD is on track to getting 20 seats. Or is the ECI webpage wrong?

NDTV has BJD 18 and NDTV has BJD at 19.  Since Orissa counts slow (it is one of the most backward states) this might be a race condition in change of leads.

NDTV has had lots of errors during the night - the aggregate picture was right, but they sometimes were clearly at odds with ECI reporting (admittedly, that one was a tad slow). Anyways, looking at ECI page, most Orissa constituencies have declared - including the two with the tightest margins - and in favor of BJD. There are still a couple reasonably close, but the closest one that is still counting is Bargarh, and the margin there is close to 12 thousand votes - a bit high to overturn at this stage.

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An interesting question is, how bad is this for the NDA partners. On one hand, of course, they performed well in this election - but they are now completely unnecessary for the BJP for the next five years. Is Modi going to share power and money with them? which jobs will they get?

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http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standpoint-why-do-liberal-intellectuals-hate-narendra-modi-1989064

Posting this here because I didn't want to start a new topic. Please move it if you wish.

Interesting article. Even if you hold Narendra Modi personally responsible for the deaths of the Gujarat riot victims, why not hold the socialist politicians responsible for economic policies that have led to the death of countless Indians?

Sometimes, one has to accept that there may be radical difference in moral foundations between people. I think, we have reached this point. I am simply not willing to explain certain things. It is enough to simply state that we, probably, have very different notions of what is decent and morally acceptable with the author of that article - or with whoever finds it "interesting". I am, frankly, not interested. And, mercifully, at least in this case, I have nothing personally at stake here: it is not my friends and family who will be killed.

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http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standpoint-why-do-liberal-intellectuals-hate-narendra-modi-1989064

Posting this here because I didn't want to start a new topic. Please move it if you wish.

Interesting article. Even if you hold Narendra Modi personally responsible for the deaths of the Gujarat riot victims, why not hold the socialist politicians responsible for economic policies that have led to the death of countless Indians?

Sometimes, one has to accept that there may be radical difference in moral foundations between people. I think, we have reached this point. I am simply not willing to explain certain things. It is enough to simply state that we, probably, have very different notions of what is decent and morally acceptable with the author of that article - or with whoever finds it "interesting". I am, frankly, not interested. And, mercifully, at least in this case, I have nothing personally at stake here: it is not my friends and family who will be killed.

Malnutrition, illiteracy and poor access to healthcare are just as much of a tragedy as a riot that kills innocent thousands. Of course I also don't think Modi is responsible for the riot. If I thought he gave the orders for the riots, I would not be fine with him being PM. And to make it clear, I am more a BJP supporter (at least in this election) than a Modi supporter.

I should, probably, add, that demagogy is a time-honored practice, but I have a pretty low tolerance level for it.

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I will add that I don't believe everyone voted for BJP on the basis of Hindu sectarian rhetoric. India is a diverse country and people are not hive bees. But its clear that BJP has used its old tricks to devastating effect in certain areas of the country.

Most definitely, many people voted for BJP based on the "development" promises - or for whatever other (non-sectarian) reason. The problems is: can they argue that they were unaware of what else comes in the package? I am not talking here of the villagers, who voted one way or another because of the agreements by their caste leaders or whatever. I am talking about the educated urbanites, who had to know what they were purchasing - like our friend Sbane here. They most definitely knew, evaluated the trade off and consented to the consequences. So, whatever happens now, they are responsible - even if they found some of Modi´s past distasteful, and voted for him for whatever other reason.

And, yes, this was a major Hindu consolidation. The communities are set apart against each other.

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"not my friends and family who will be killed"... "the consequences" and "whatever happens"? Forgive my ignorance, but I'm not sure why just because some riots happened 12 years ago anything like that's going to be repeated now. BJP was in power in the 1990's were they not, and there were no mass anti muslim pogroms?

This is not about BJP, but about one particular man: Narendra Modi. Putin, in a rare sincere moment, once said that "there is no such thing as a former KGB man". Well, equally there is no such thing as a former mass murdrer. This man has shown that he is willing to kill for political gain. At one point or another most may find it politically expedient to kill. Most do not. This guy will.

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So in that seat where all the Muslims got killed:

BJP backed independent supported by non-Bodos won?

Incumbent Bodo who broke away from the Bodo party because they were too crazy came in second.

Bodo party candidate came in third.

Is that right?

BJP backed independent Hira Sarania won.  Incumbent BPF ran as an independent because BPF nominated someone else  BPF wanted to nominate someone that is more inclusive and more likely to get votes beyond the Bodo community.  So the Incumbent BPF MP ran as the BODO candidate in the election.  BJP backed Hira Sarania won because of the split in the Bodo vote.  Hira Sarania was an ULFA extremist and a commander of an ULFA battalion.  ULFA is a terrorist organization that fights for the independence of Assam mainly to keep out non-Assamese.  He was arrested back in 2012 for robbery, kidnap and murder but somehow was allowed to contest and now won.

I guess, this is the fine example of the inclusive pro-development campaign BJP ran this time.

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"not my friends and family who will be killed"... "the consequences" and "whatever happens"? Forgive my ignorance, but I'm not sure why just because some riots happened 12 years ago anything like that's going to be repeated now. BJP was in power in the 1990's were they not, and there were no mass anti muslim pogroms?

All the posts about Muslims being killed are borne out of ignorance. They have got to be unaware of the type of campaign the BJP ran this year and are stuck on events that happen more than a decade ago. And if the BJP had to run this sort of campaign in order to get this huge win, why would they set about creating sectarian strife which will cause damage to the economy, and thus their re-election in 2019.

By the way, I have never said it is just the Muslims that will be killed. Hindus have at least as much to be worried about. But, hey, electing an unapologetic mass murderer is good for development, isn't it?

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And BJD did take 20 out of 21 Orissa seats. Good for them.

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"not my friends and family who will be killed"... "the consequences" and "whatever happens"? Forgive my ignorance, but I'm not sure why just because some riots happened 12 years ago anything like that's going to be repeated now. BJP was in power in the 1990's were they not, and there were no mass anti muslim pogroms?

All the posts about Muslims being killed are borne out of ignorance. They have got to be unaware of the type of campaign the BJP ran this year and are stuck on events that happen more than a decade ago. And if the BJP had to run this sort of campaign in order to get this huge win, why would they set about creating sectarian strife which will cause damage to the economy, and thus their re-election in 2019.

By the way, I have never said it is just the Muslims that will be killed. Hindus have at least as much to be worried about. But, hey, electing an unapologetic mass murderer is good for development, isn't it?

Repeating a lie over and over doesn't make it true.

Interesting. Coming so soon after posting an "interesting" link, that in any country, but India, would have been considered outright fascist propaganda.

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"not my friends and family who will be killed"... "the consequences" and "whatever happens"? Forgive my ignorance, but I'm not sure why just because some riots happened 12 years ago anything like that's going to be repeated now. BJP was in power in the 1990's were they not, and there were no mass anti muslim pogroms?

All the posts about Muslims being killed are borne out of ignorance. They have got to be unaware of the type of campaign the BJP ran this year and are stuck on events that happen more than a decade ago. And if the BJP had to run this sort of campaign in order to get this huge win, why would they set about creating sectarian strife which will cause damage to the economy, and thus their re-election in 2019.

By the way, I have never said it is just the Muslims that will be killed. Hindus have at least as much to be worried about. But, hey, electing an unapologetic mass murderer is good for development, isn't it?

Repeating a lie over and over doesn't make it true.

Interesting. Coming so soon after posting an "interesting" link, that in any country, but India, would have been considered outright fascist propaganda.

LOL what the hell are you even talking about?

That article you found so "interesting", of course.

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"not my friends and family who will be killed"... "the consequences" and "whatever happens"? Forgive my ignorance, but I'm not sure why just because some riots happened 12 years ago anything like that's going to be repeated now. BJP was in power in the 1990's were they not, and there were no mass anti muslim pogroms?

All the posts about Muslims being killed are borne out of ignorance. They have got to be unaware of the type of campaign the BJP ran this year and are stuck on events that happen more than a decade ago. And if the BJP had to run this sort of campaign in order to get this huge win, why would they set about creating sectarian strife which will cause damage to the economy, and thus their re-election in 2019.

By the way, I have never said it is just the Muslims that will be killed. Hindus have at least as much to be worried about. But, hey, electing an unapologetic mass murderer is good for development, isn't it?

Repeating a lie over and over doesn't make it true.

Interesting. Coming so soon after posting an "interesting" link, that in any country, but India, would have been considered outright fascist propaganda.

LOL what the hell are you even talking about?

That article you found so "interesting", of course.

Apparently you don't understand the meaning of the word fascist.

I think, I understand it a lot better than you. But, I am afraid, you will have a chance to learn firsthand. Just never tell me, nobody warned you.

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I appreciate Sbane's comments and I see no reason to be hurtful to each other. Sbane is an excellent expertise. If someone is angry because BJP has won, what is understandable, if you are on the left, it should not projected onto him. I really like this thread and lerned lots about Indian politics.

I should just would like to point out, that, being a commited pro-free-market economist, I am, probably, to the right of Modi on many - likely, most - economics-related issues. I just believe that discussion of economic matters is immoral, when the subject is an unrepentant mass murderer. There are things one should never forgive or forget. As the Economist wrote in its obituary of Pinochet, "No ifs or buts: whatever the general did for the economy, he was a bad man". That is the only way to talk about such people: ever.

And what are we getting instead? "Hitler elected German chancellor. Major progress expected on highway construction program".

Anyways, Sbane has, obviously, been making only germane comments: no hijacking of anything detected. Equally, I think, I am in my right to let him know, that, when sh**t happens, I will make certain to remind him of his present attitude.

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I appreciate Sbane's comments and I see no reason to be hurtful to each other. Sbane is an excellent expertise. If someone is angry because BJP has won, what is understandable, if you are on the left, it should not projected onto him. I really like this thread and lerned lots about Indian politics.

And what are we getting instead? "Hitler elected German chancellor. Major progress expected on highway construction program".

Please feel not be attacked, but this might interest you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

I have not been born yesterday, you know I am fully aware of Godwin's law And I made the comparison I made in full awareness that somebody is going to bring it up: because I do consider it perfectly appropriate.

I am not arguing here, in any case. I am not trying to convince anyone of anything (too late for that, anyway).I am simply warning.