Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Birdish]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

[Birdish]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

Even sadder.

[Birdish]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

Even sadder.

The previous method of a non-majority gubernatorial election in MS was still even sadder.

Very much so. Post reconstruction deep south politics is incredibly depressing. My comment wasn't to make light of that, just a flippant response about me forgetting about the Mississippi run off law. In my defense, there hasn't ever been one.

[Birdish]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

[Birdish]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

Both Mississippi and Alabama Whites were 80-20 Trump in NYT 2020 exit polls.  The proportion of college-educated Whites between AL/MS is also very comparable (24% vs 21%)

I have the NYTs exit polls saying MS - 81/18, AL - 77/21 for white voters.

[Birdish]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

Both Mississippi and Alabama Whites were 80-20 Trump in NYT 2020 exit polls.  The proportion of college-educated Whites between AL/MS is also very comparable (24% vs 21%)

I have the NYTs exit polls saying MS - 81/18, AL - 77/21 for white voters.

Add the expected margin of error for exit polls...and they're both 80/20

Sure, just me doing some light "what-if" thinking if Mississippi whites voted slightly more democrat like the exit polls from 2020 potentially suggested.

[Birdish]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

Both Mississippi and Alabama Whites were 80-20 Trump in NYT 2020 exit polls.  The proportion of college-educated Whites between AL/MS is also very comparable (24% vs 21%)

I have the NYTs exit polls saying MS - 81/18, AL - 77/21 for white voters.

Add the expected margin of error for exit polls...and they're both 80/20

I mean, maybe AL Whites really are marginally more Democrat-voting than MS Whites.  How much of a difference is that really worth?  It's not like we're comparing Mississippi to New Jersey lol

Unrelated but interestingly enough, NJ and MS have some surprisingly similar results being polar opposites of one another. NJ voted for Biden by 16 points, MS voted for Trump by 16 points. Phil Murphy won re-election in an off year midterm by 3.2 points, Reeves won re-election in an off year midterm by 3.3 points(so far).