Euros as bad at math as Americans (user search)
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  Euros as bad at math as Americans (search mode)
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Author Topic: Euros as bad at math as Americans  (Read 2581 times)
ag
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« on: August 16, 2009, 06:23:59 PM »
« edited: August 16, 2009, 06:34:19 PM by ag »

You don't have to be bad at math to be bad at probability and rational choice. (Plus, rational choice sometimes tells us to do stupid things, as in the St. Petersburg paradox.)

Rational choice emphatically does not imply anything stupid in St. Petersburg paradox. Rational choice has nothing to do w/ evaluating monetary lotteries at their expected monetary value. In fact, as a professor who teaches rational choice I can tell you the following: if you answer like this on an exam you'll fail Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2009, 06:25:43 PM »

Not everyone buying a lottery ticket is "bad at math" expecting to win. I sure as hell don't.

So they're just voluntarily throwing money away?

They believe that the small probability of having a humongous payout is worth a buck. Could be absolutely rational.
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ag
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2009, 06:30:59 PM »

If I have a buck to spare, I  might buy a lottery ticket, but I'm not expecting to win. Worst case scenario: I'm out of a buck. Not exactly tragic.

So, you have money, and you throw it away on something you know will almost certianly yield no value. I'd say that's bad at math. I supported TN getting the lottery a few years back, but have come to change my mind on the subject.

Somebody gets paid. There is a tiny probability event it would be you - tiny, but positive. The worst that happens - you loose a buck. Dreams are worth more than a buck. It could be (from a certain viewpoint) and absolutely rational transaction. Yes, on average it costs money - about as much as a can of coke. Unless your objective in life is to maximize expected monetary payoff (in other words, unless you are a robot) there is nothing intrinsically stupid about buying that ticket.

Disclaimer: I myself never buy lottery tickets.
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ag
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2009, 06:32:21 PM »

If I have a buck to spare, I  might buy a lottery ticket, but I'm not expecting to win. Worst case scenario: I'm out of a buck. Not exactly tragic.

So, you have money, and you throw it away on something you know will almost certianly yield no value. I'd say that's bad at math. I supported TN getting the lottery a few years back, but have come to change my mind on the subject.

Well if not spent on the lottery ticket it'd most likely end up in a stripper's G-string. Not sure which you'd consider better.

Not where I would have spent the dollar, but that's irrealavant. It was your dollar. You got what you wanted from it. With the lottery, you get nothing. In short:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5QGkOGZubQ&NR=1

You got a chance to dream (and, with a tiny probability, you'd change your life). A dream is worth more than a dollar to you. Rational choice theory says you should buy that damn ticket Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2009, 07:12:53 PM »

You don't have to be bad at math to be bad at probability and rational choice. (Plus, rational choice sometimes tells us to do stupid things, as in the St. Petersburg paradox.)

Rational choice emphatically does not imply anything stupid in St. Petersburg paradox. Rational choice has nothing to do w/ evaluating monetary lotteries at their expected monetary value. In fact, as a professor who teaches rational choice I can tell you the following: if you answer like this on an exam you'll fail Smiley

And you would fail as a rational choice professor, because you would not be able to explain why the St. Petersburg paradox doesn't apply when the item(s) to be won are utiles rather than monetary units. Smiley


Not only I'd be able to explain it - I do exactly that every semester, sometimes twice Smiley Of course, not, really, that it doesn't apply, but rather that there isn't a real paradox.

Ok. What's St. Petersburg paradox? It's an example of a lottery of infinite expected monetary value that few people would care to purchase even for peanuts. It is used, primarily, to illustrate the point that expected monetary value of lotteries have little to do with individual preferences over it. Bernoulli himself (the one who coined the "paradoxical" example) suggested that it could be easily explained if one assumed "decreasing marginal utility of money". To avoid the problems with the notion of "preference intensity" (in rational choice we don't like it Smiley ), modern utility theory gives a  more nuanced explanation (which I would need about half a lecture to set up), but the basic intuition of Bernoulli is there as well.  At the very least, attempting to value monetary lotteries using their expected value is viewed as big and ugly mistake: if you do this in an exam, you fail.

Now, your point about "utiles" is even worse: "utiles" don't exist. There isn't a "standard unit of happiness" not even in a vault in Paris, like a kilo. We can talk about utillity (even expected utility) representation of preferences, but that's something alltogether different.

But even if they did exist, there would be no problem. Preferences (and, hence, utilities) are subjective, not in any sense "intrinsic" or "objective". The fact that nobody chooses to sell their house for the St. Petersburg lottery is evidence of common preferences in that regard. Now, there is nothing "(ir)rational" about any given price for a lottery. When economists/rational choice theorists talk about an individual's "rationality" all they mean is that his/her preferences  satisfy a couple of basic consistency conditions (completeness and transitivity) - no more, no less. Any price for any given lottery, from negative to positive infinity, could be consistent with rationality. Not to mention the point, that even to meaningfully take expectations over the utilities you need to assume something (independence) far above and beyond rationality itself.

Please, take a good microecon/decision theory course - it's worth it, it's lots of fun Smiley (and you'd clear up all the misunderstandings you are having right now).  Perhaps, I should give a tutorial Smiley

PS I suggest moving this thread to the Economics board.
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ag
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2009, 03:19:42 PM »

The problem with the St. Petersburg paradox is it assumes the source backing the game has infinite money. This can work in a thought experiment, but never in reality, hence it has no basis in reality.

That's also true. But, actually, there wouldn't even be a problem if there were infinite amount of money. This was a paradox 200 years back - the theory has developed, among other things, to take it into account.
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