He's at 29% amongst independents and most LV polls have shown Romney leading. Alot of people are registered to vote but only 55%-60% will actually do so. Recent polls have been bad news for the president but on election day his approval rating will likely be his percentage of the popular vote plus or minus a point.
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LV polls don't matter in Juky. People aren't gonna be guaranteed to vote in the middle of summer. Most credible pollsters poll registered voters until about October. Besides, you can only vote once. Likely voters are to hard to determine.