New Tradesports rankings

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Obama gains for obvious reasons, although Clinton is still the overwhelming front-runner.

McCain has a huge surge.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 63.0
Obama 37.0
Gore 1.0
Edwards 0.7
Richardson 0.1


California
Clinton 87.0
Obama 15.


REPUBLICANS
McCain 55.0
Romney 28.4
Guiliani 9.4
Huckabee 3.1
Paul 1.7
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.4
Thompson 0.3

Florida
McCain 54.0
Romney 42.1
Romney  5.0
Huckabee 0.5 (Field)

California
McCain 64.3
Romney 25.0
Giuiiani 5.1
Huckabee 0.7 (Field)

[Eraserhead]

I'm surprised Obama isn't up more. Maybe tomorrow.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama surpasses McCain in winning individual:

Clinton 38.9
Obama 21.0
McCain 20.3
Romney 11.2
Giuliani 5.0
Bloomberg 1.7

Huckabee is currently rated as more likely to drop out by Jan. 31 than Giuliani....which is crazy.

[© tweed]

Clinton 60.0 (-3.8 )
Obama 38.5 (+4.9)
Edwards 0.7 (-1.0)
Rest of Field 0.7 (0)




McCain 53.5 (+6.2)
Romney 34.9 (-3.5)
Giuliani 7.9 (+0.2)
Huckabee 2.9 (-0.9)
Rest of Field 1.8 (-0.1)
Thompson 0.4 (+0.1)

[J. J.]

The Republican market by be settled within the next 48 hours.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain hits 60 (for I think the first time ever) in the GOP nomination market:

McCain 60.0
Romney 29.5
Giuliani 6.0
Huckabee 3.0

Giuliani surges in the "who will drop out by Jan. 31?" market:

Giuliani 30.0
Huckabee 12.5
Paul 2.5
McCain 1.1
Clinton 1.0
Edwards 1.0
Romney 0.7
Obama 0.1

[MarkWarner08]

McCain's surging in Florida.... Looks like the insiders are picking up on that fact.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton sinking in Dem. nomination market:

Clinton 59.0
Obama 38.9

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg now ties Giuliani for 5th place in winning individual:

Clinton 36.0
McCain 24.4
Obama 24.0
Romney 9.7
Bloomberg 1.7
Giuliani 1.7

Giuliani now at 50% on whether he'll drop out by Thursday.

[J. J.]

Just remember, I'm the guy who suggested you buy McCain at 48.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain surge and Romney/Giuliani collapse for the GOP nomination;

McCain 71.0
Romney 22.0
Giuliani 2.5
Huckabee 2.3

[J. J.]

Sell McCain, he will drop.

[Verily]

I must disagree. Buy McCain at any price below 90. He's a lock now.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP nomination:

McCain 77.8
Romney 16.9
Giuliani 2.1
Paul 1.4
Huckabee 1.3

McCain breaks 30 in winning individual:

Clinton 36.0
McCain 31.1
Obama 22.0
Romney 6.8
Bloomberg 1.6
Paul 1.1
Gore 0.9
Giuliani 0.8

Giuliani at 84.5 to drop out by Thursday.

[J. J.]

McCain will be up for the next two days and possibly drop. 

Begin to think about McCain in the general.

[MarkWarner08]

Begin to think about McCain in the general.

Duh..

[Verily]

McCain will be up for the next two days and possibly drop. 

Begin to think about McCain in the general.

Betting on McCain in the general would be wise once you've soaked up all of the value in McCain for the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul is now in 3rd place for the GOP nom.:

McCain 80.0
Romney 14.0
Paul 1.4
Huckabee 1.2
Giuliani 1.0

[Erc]

Just remember, I'm the guy who suggested you buy McCain at 48.

I'm the guy who suggested you buy McCain at 5 .  Did I follow my own advice?  Noooo...

[Mr. Morden]

Gigantic surge for Giuliani in the GOP VP market:

Huckabee 25.5
Giuliani 22.0
Pawlenty 9.9
McCain 5.0
Thompson 5.0

Brokered convention collapses to 4.5 for the GOP.  I told you it wasn't going to happen.  It's still at 18.0 for the Dems, which is too high.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain will be up for the next two days and possibly drop. 

Begin to think about McCain in the general.

Betting on McCain in the general would be wise once you've soaked up all of the value in McCain for the nomination.

Essentially, it's the same bet.  They'll move largely in tandem, percentage wise.

I picked up McCain to be President at 19 rather than picking up McCain to win the nomination at 50+ a few days back.  I did this because I thought (1) McCain to win the nomination was undervalued and (2) He'd stand a better than 30%~ chance to win the Presidency if he was the nominee.

It's been a great play.  Up 50%.  Wish I had gotten more shares of it.

Meanwhile, Giuliani to win NJ and PA have both crashed down to about 1-2 a piece.  Thanks to the kindly fellow here who pointed out that shorting Giuliani to win Pennsylvania would be a great play.

[Mr. Morden]

Thanks to the kindly fellow here who pointed out that shorting Giuliani to win Pennsylvania would be a great play.

You're welcome. 

I'm still wondering what the people who were trading Giuliani to win PA at 70 but at 35 to win the nomination were thinking.  That he'd stay in the race all the way into April when PA votes, win the primary there, and then still lose the nomination?  The fact that there was such a huge discrepancy between the odds on winning PA and winning the nomination was dumbfounding.

[Mr. Morden]

Brokered Dem. convention is still at 15.0.  How is there going to be a brokered convention with only two candidates?  Doesn't one of them have to win a majority of delegates?

[J. J.]

Brokered Dem. convention is still at 15.0.  How is there going to be a brokered convention with only two candidates?  Doesn't one of them have to win a majority of delegates?

You might need 2/3 but I'm not sure.

[Sam Spade]

Brokered Dem. convention is still at 15.0.  How is there going to be a brokered convention with only two candidates?  Doesn't one of them have to win a majority of delegates?

You might need 2/3 but I'm not sure.

They did away with the 2/3rds requirement a while ago.  I forget when.