Can Biden do better than Bredesen in Williamson County vs. Trump?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I lean towards saying he won't come within 18 points in Williamson County.  Republicans did very well in Williamson County in all races in 2022.  Andy Ogles (!) even outran Trump by 7 points- and Mark Green outran Trump by 13 points- in the Williamson County portion of his district.

TN-5 2020-PRES to 2022-HOUSE swings by county:
Davidson: D+1
Lewis: D+1
Wilson: R+2
Marshall: R+2
Maury: R+2
Williamson: R+7

That is one example of why I think Williamson County was a real bright spot for Republicans in the 2022 elections.  Andy Ogles basically ran even with Trump in the rest of the district, but put up a very strong performance in Williamson County.  On the other hand, Ogles bombed in the also heavily Democratic trending Southern Davidson County.  He lost that portion (which was almost certainly easily carried by Mitt Romney) by 22 points, even doing a point worse than Trump in 2020.  Now, I will caveat that his opponent, Heidi Campbell, represented much of that territory in the State House.  But, Ogles only outran Trump by 2 points in Maury County, where he served as the county mayor.

I view the 2016 and 2020 swings as different halves of the same thing.  In 2016, Clinton only barely got a higher vote share than Obama (29% vs. 27%).  In 2020, Trump's vote share only barely decreased (62% vs. 64% in 2016).  That suggests to me that there were a lot of Romney-3rd Party-Biden voters that essentially made their anti-Trump swing over two presidential elections.  Even if Trump is the Republican nominee again, I just can't see another ~10 point swing leftwards.

Since 2016, here are the margins in gubernatorial, presidential, and senatorial races in the county:

2016-PRES: R+35
2018-SEN: R+18
2018-GOV: R+32
2020-PRES: R+26
2020-SEN: R+35
2022-GOV: R+37 (also, the first time since 2014 that Williamson County trended rightwards according to Dave Leip's maps)

For people who say that it is just downballot lag, if we take out the presidential elections, the county has actually consistently moved slightly to the right in downballot races over the last few years, from R+32 in 2018 to R+35 in 2020 to R+37 (and 0.01 from rounding to R+38) in 2022.