Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Geoffrey Howe]

I'm afraid I don't really follow Spanish politics - what is the upshot of these results?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Precinct map of the city, by ideological bloc.

Right: 57.1%
Left: 41.4%



Disclaimer: I noticed there are some errors in the data the Community of Madrid provided. I double checked and the errors are also there in the eldiario.es interactive map. It's why there are 2 empty precincts (I think one just hasn't reported yet), and also some others that aren't immediately noticeable.

Are there any such maps for the general elections? This is fabulous.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Are there any such maps for the general elections? This is fabulous.

I made one like this for the November 2019 General Election: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tDNw6ubhdfY6eWs8MSQ4muGXqpWbjY_h/view?usp=sharing

Of course, eldiario.es made interactive maps for the entire country, so check those out:

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-elecciones-generales-resultados-calle_1_1162753.html

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/mapas-espana-pobre-elecciones-calle-10n_1_1256506.html

Thank you much! Is yours the combined right wing vote?

Anyway in Salamanca (Madrid 04-114)

Votos   Porcentaje
PP   483   51.4%
VOX   204   21.7%
Cs   160   17%
PSOE 50   5.3%
UP   33   3.5%

With 87% turnout. PP got 16% nationwide. Quite a result.
Where does Vox’s support come from? From what I understand this is a very affluent neighbourhood.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Are there any such maps for the general elections? This is fabulous.

I made one like this for the November 2019 General Election: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tDNw6ubhdfY6eWs8MSQ4muGXqpWbjY_h/view?usp=sharing

Of course, eldiario.es made interactive maps for the entire country, so check those out:

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-elecciones-generales-resultados-calle_1_1162753.html

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/mapas-espana-pobre-elecciones-calle-10n_1_1256506.html

Thank you much! Is yours the combined right wing vote?

Anyway in Salamanca (Madrid 04-114)

Votos Porcentaje
PP 483 51.4%
VOX 204 21.7%
Cs 160 17%
PSOE 50 5.3%
UP 33 3.5%

With 87% turnout. PP got 16% nationwide. Quite a result.
Where does Vox’s support come from? From what I understand this is a very affluent neighbourhood.

Yes, it's the combined votes for each bloc, left and right. One thing to note is that you chose one of the most right-wing precincts in all of urban Spain, and as you already noted, the PP performed quite poorly on the national level, so the other right-of-the-centre parties were bound to post better-than-average numbers there.

Yes, I was looking for the most right-wing one I could find. Though most city centres seem to have lots of PP-Vox-Cs precincts. What are the voter bases for these parties? I imagine PP is a bit like the Tories here and PSOE/UP like Labour, but Vox and Cs I'm not so sure. From what I understand Vox is a far-right nationalist party, so I wouldn't have expected it to do well in places like that. And Cs?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Yes, I was looking for the most right-wing one I could find. Though most city centres seem to have lots of PP-Vox-Cs precincts. What are the voter bases for these parties? I imagine PP is a bit like the Tories here and PSOE/UP like Labour, but Vox and Cs I'm not so sure. From what I understand Vox is a far-right nationalist party, so I wouldn't have expected it to do well in places like that. And Cs?

Well something to note first of all is that Madrid is a very right wing major city by European/international standards. I think it may be the only right wing city alongside Stockholm in all of Western Europe. Spain also has a political system where income is still the primary indicator of people's vote.

After this I will note Salamanca is not quite central medieval Madrid (that would be the Centro district) although it is very close to it and comprises lots of 19th century "ensanches" with very nice appartments and what not. You are correct in that Salamanca is a very affluent neighbourhood (perhaps even the most affluent in Madrid).

Back when Cs was the party that was riding high while Vox only had 10% of the vote, there was a very interesting division between "old money" areas (where PP was still dominant) and "new money" areas (where Cs beat PP). Salamanca fell firmly in the "old money" side of this divide.

Since income is the primary reason for people's vote in Spain, it is easy to see why Salamanca would be such an extremely right wing area. Rich, old money people voting conservatively. As for who votes Vox within these areas? Honestly I do not really know. My best guess would be rich, socially conservative people but I have no idea.

In more general terms Vox voters are stereotyped as middle aged people that live in exurban areas and with a fairly average level of education and relatively high incomes; although it is worth noting that Vox's most recent gains (and indeed their vote distribution in this Madrid election) has shown them gaining mostly among more working class people.

Anyways, if you want comparisons to UK parties, yeah, the Tories are a very good comparison for PP. Cs I guess could be considered as a more right wing version of the Lib Dems? As for Vox, there aren't really any good UK comparisons but it is a firmly pro-Spanish unity and what not party (which in these kinds of areas in Spain does not lose you votes, rich people are all in for Spanish unity) that is very right wing economically and also does a lot of what they call the "cultural battle" I guess.

Thanks for this insightful analysis. It reminds me quite a lot of French voting - rich inner city areas going for Fillon*. I remain astounded by the Vox vote in these places; just reading about Vox, they seem extremely unpleasant. Cs seems different from the Lib Dems in that the former is very anti-separatist whereas the Lib Dems have quite a cuddly, regionalist image.

Is there also a Catholic, socially conservative vote for PP? Because they do very well in Ávila and Lugo/Ourense but I doubt these rural areas are very wealthy, so I imagined it wa something religious. Or is age a thing?


*Though actually I couldn't help but think of Park Cities, Dallas for such a right wing urban area. But American comparisons are never good!

[Geoffrey Howe]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

[Geoffrey Howe]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

I mean, in a Spanish context there are quite a few historical reasons the two would have disagreements.

I wasn't surprised they disagreed - indeed often the bitterest rivalries are within the same camp...factionalists.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Thanks for this insightful analysis. It reminds me quite a lot of French voting - rich inner city areas going for Fillon*. I remain astounded by the Vox vote in these places; just reading about Vox, they seem extremely unpleasant. Cs seems different from the Lib Dems in that the former is very anti-separatist whereas the Lib Dems have quite a cuddly, regionalist image.

Is there also a Catholic, socially conservative vote for PP? Because they do very well in Ávila and Lugo/Ourense but I doubt these rural areas are very wealthy, so I imagined it wa something religious. Or is age a thing?

Yes, of course there is a very strong socially conservative and religiously Catholic vote for PP; which as you note is concentrated basically all across rural (northern and central) Spain and also of course stronger among older people (though even the few remaining young people in places like rural Ávila or whatever are conservative, even if they might be less religious)

These rural areas are not rich definitely, but they are also not poor. Pretty sure Castille-Leon for instance ranks slightly above average in terms of income; and it has the best education system in the country.

That makes sense, thanks.

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

Lmao that is a hilarious story.

But yeah, rural Andalucía is very left wing because there you have a ton of landless peasants working for big landlords with tons of land. So in those places PP is the party of the landlords (Señoritos / Terratenientes) and PSOE or IU are the parties of the peasants. You can also add to that the story of how these areas were left behind by Francoism (what Oryx said, but in reverse)

And as you note there are huge PSOE-IU rivalries (well or there used to be; given Podemos' rise I don't know to what extent those old rivalries still exist)

[Geoffrey Howe]

-snip-

The joys of granular election results!

[Geoffrey Howe]

It's a bit old, but I was trawling through the Madrilenian results to look for the best precinct for the right. I have found in La Moraleja a precinct (Alcobendas 01-036) which voted 96.4% for the right:

PP 79.2%
Vox: 15.6%
Cs: 1.6%

The best for PP specifically was next door at 82.6% (but only 96.3% combined for the right).