Official Florida Primary Result Page (Bipartisan)

[Sam Spade]

Considering the numbers, it is way too early to be predicting anything, at present.  The numbers are way too close.  Moreover, I still don't buy this 2%-3% rumor - we'll see if it turns out to be right.  And once again, I don't trust exit polls, though they've been ok so far this year, for the most part.

Key area to examine is the Tampa-St. Pete area.  Hopefully, I'll be around there.

[Sam Spade]

Fox News:
For voters whose top issue is the Economy:
McCain 38, Romney 34, Huckabee 12, Giuliani 10
http://thepage.time.com/more-fox-news-exit-poll-results/

That's interesting...

[Sam Spade]

Fox News:
For voters whose top issue is the Economy:
McCain 38, Romney 34, Huckabee 12, Giuliani 10
http://thepage.time.com/more-fox-news-exit-poll-results/

That's interesting...

Bad news for My Man Mitt.

If only we could really trust exit polls.  Maybe we can this time, but I'm still leery.

[Sam Spade]

Fox News:
For voters whose top issue is the Economy:
McCain 38, Romney 34, Huckabee 12, Giuliani 10
http://thepage.time.com/more-fox-news-exit-poll-results/

That's interesting...

Bad news for My Man Mitt.

Terrible news for Mitt. In the SurveyUSA poll that had the race tied, Mitt beat McCain on the economy 40%-29%. 

I might as well make my election prediction now. McCain will win by a 6% margin.

Maybe, but you know the MOE on those sorts of things.  Hard to extrapolate, IMHO.

[Sam Spade]

What is this, like 2 precincts?  It's too early to tell.

[Sam Spade]

Romney should lead early, if he does.  McCain will eat into it as the night goes on.

[Sam Spade]

I just got back, and I'm on a slow connection, so what I'm going to do first is figure out where the results are coming from.

[Sam Spade]

I'm quite surprised by how well Edwards is doing in the Northern counties. I thought he'd poll 20-30%, but he's actually leading in at least five thus far...

Since they're all registered Democrat and can't vote Republican in the GE like they normally do, they vote for the Southerner... 

[Sam Spade]

None of the counties I'm interested in are reporting yet.  If I was on a faster connection, I might read the tea leaves of the smaller counties. 

[Sam Spade]

Obama is kicking ass in Tallahasse. Pretty odd, compared to Orlando.

Blacks.

[Sam Spade]

What the hell just happened?

Looks like Lee County (Ft Myers) with a 6000 vote margin for Mitt is a big piece.Still no significant counts from the big southern 3 - Dade, Broward, Palm Beach.

Nothing still yet from Hillsborough, Duval, Pinellas (7%) or the Panhandle either.

[Sam Spade]

What the hell just happened?

Looks like Lee County (Ft Myers) with a 6000 vote margin for Mitt is a big piece.Still no significant counts from the big southern 3 - Dade, Broward, Palm Beach.

Nothing still yet from Hillsborough, Duval, Pinellas (7%) or the Panhandle either.

Romney or Huckabee, will proabably win there.

Hillsbourogh, Pinellas are Tampa-St. Pete - swing areas.  Duval - Jacksonville - should be Mitt.

Panhandle is hard to figure - Military and evangelical.  Redneck Riviera.

[Sam Spade]

What the hell just happened?

Looks like Lee County (Ft Myers) with a 6000 vote margin for Mitt is a big piece.Still no significant counts from the big southern 3 - Dade, Broward, Palm Beach.

Nothing still yet from Hillsborough, Duval, Pinellas (7%) or the Panhandle either.

Romney or Huckabee, will proabably win there.

Hillsbourogh, Pinellas are Tampa-St. Pete - swing areas.  Duval - Jacksonville - should be Mitt.

Panhandle is hard to figure - Military and evangelical.  Redneck Riviera.

Pensacola has a big black population, it could favor Obama by alot. Walton, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa are big tourist/retirement areas...probably favor Clinton.

I'm talking about the races that matter - the Republicans.  At least until Clinton seats the Florida delegates.

[Sam Spade]

If I know anything about Florida (without the Panhandle, which is key), I suspect McCain will win this one - not by that much - but he will.  Place bets in between 0.5%-3.5%. For betting purposes only.

One other thing - Hillary will get a majority - watch.

[Sam Spade]

3% lead for McCain now. It is over.

Not yet.

correct, but there reaches a point of no return for the panhandle and northern florida, eventually (and orlando)

[Sam Spade]

First big panhandle results. Okaloosa (Ft Walton Beach) is 65% in. McCain 39%, Romney 36%, margin is 2600 votes.

That might be it.

[Sam Spade]

The outstanding areas favor McCain... This race is over.

Not Duval and Orlando, but the others yes.  Especially if McCain is tying Romney in the Panhandle.

[Sam Spade]

The outstanding areas favor McCain... This race is over.

Not Duval and Orlando, but the others yes.  Especially if McCain is tying Romney in the Panhandle.

Okaloosa is solidly McCain right now.

No faith in my home county even...sad

In fact, it looks like the entire panhandle is McCain, with a dash of Huckabee thrown in.  Romney is not even close.

I guess the Evangelical-Catholic divide in the Republican Party is actually true.

You mean Mormon, right

[Sam Spade]

McCain's lead is up to 4%. I'm going to predict a final margin of 6% for McCain over Romney, a decisive victory.

McCain is outrunning a lot of these areas.  I probably should have predicted a higher margin at the beginning b/c Pinellas and Hillsborough were +6% McCain.  Oh well

Should've listened to my own judgment a lot 

[Sam Spade]

Clinton's margin is down to 18% now.

Sadly, nothing from Jew heaven, err... I mean Palm Beach yet...

[Sam Spade]

Democrats:

Clinton 50%
Obama 33%
Edwards 14%

Obama is still getting closer as more of the vote comes in.

Obama did remarkably well, relatively, in Miami-Dade, 40%. Still, Clinton's lead will rise when the laggards in Palm Beach County get around to counting votes.

The black population is 20% in Miami-Dade, and the 60% of Hispanics (Cubans) primarily vote Republican.  Sounds about right to me.

[Sam Spade]

Moose, I don't know.  California is open to Indys only.  Texas is open to everyone, but you have to stay there for a year.  New York is closed.  That's all I know.

[Sam Spade]

I'm looking at the exit poll numbers and I see the same problems I've noticed for Obama as before - I'll put out the detailed stats in due time.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting factoid from the Republican exit poll:

Second choice of Rudy voters:  Romney 47, McCain 46

Second choice of Huckabee voters:  McCain 55, Romney 32

And thus, the race is pretty much over.  I give Romney 5% chance, maybe.