Voter suppresion/"stealing the election" megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm suprised how slow this thread has been. Trump won't be able to steal the election at this point, though he may be able to swing a state in his favor or smtg.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I added suppression mode to my forecast:

Regular Mode:



Suppression Mode:



It clearly has an impact, but Biden still is a clear favorite to win, and Democrats are still favored in the senate

[ProgressiveModerate]

No Voter ID Required in North Carolina!!!

https://twitter.com/AllisonJRiggs/status/1293643695317749760?s=20

How is the place with one of the worst state Republican parties being so much more reasonable when it comes to voting rights compared to other swing states?

Because NC has a liberal 6-1 supreme court, a Democratic Governor, and a Democratic Secretary of state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No Voter ID Required in North Carolina!!!

https://twitter.com/AllisonJRiggs/status/1293643695317749760?s=20

How is the place with one of the worst state Republican parties being so much more reasonable when it comes to voting rights compared to other swing states?

Because NC has a liberal 6-1 supreme court, a Democratic Governor, and a Democratic Secretary of state.

That's definitely ideal. I just always expect the North Carolina GOP to pour all of their effort into undermining those.

Yeah it definately helps. In my simulator in high voter suppression mode, NC is the state that could save the Democrats if voter suppression gets really bad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm generally not scared by this kind of stuff, and am definately not a concern troll on this forum, but this does really concern me that Trump could maybe just eek out a win through this, with obvious forms of voter suppression. We need to get the story out there to encourage as many as possible to vote in person if possible, and those who get their ballot send them right away, maybe even physically go to the post office.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm generally not scared by this kind of stuff, and am definately not a concern troll on this forum, but this does really concern me that Trump could maybe just eek out a win through this, with obvious forms of voter suppression. We need to get the story out there to encourage as many as possible to vote in person if possible, and those who get their ballot send them right away, maybe even physically go to the post office.

I'm going to request an absentee ballot as soon as the new website is up, and will either drop my ballot in a drop box (new this year) or hand deliver it to the county elections office.

Most people aren't you though. There's a good chunk of voters who will just "give up" or send in their ballot not knowing it was never recieved and counted.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For reference, here's what parties control in each state:



The state shading is the governor, the bubble is the designated replacement for the governor (in most states, lieutenant governor). In VT, the lieutenant governor identifies as a progressive and not a Democrat, which is why I used an off shade of blue.

State house/state senate:



The statewide filling is the control of the state senate, the bubble is state house. In the AK state house, the majority is a coalition, made up of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans, and therefore it is not shaded either way.

Supreme Court Composition (Liberal/Conservative):



(NH is a 2-2 tie, NJ is 3-1-3, though you could argue it's a conservative majority because the Independent was appointed by a Republican, and AR was just weird to figure out because of conservative Dems and party switchers but seemed to end in a tie)

Secretary of state:



Utah, HI, and AK don't has a SOS

Attorney General:

[ProgressiveModerate]

Let's be real though; in order for this suppression effort to be successful, the election would have to narrow a bit and they would need to affect Democratic ballots at a far higher rate than Republican ballots. We should obviously be concerned, but the concern trolling that this will swing the election 10 points in Trump's favor is kinda BS

[ProgressiveModerate]

Let's be real though; in order for this suppression effort to be successful, the election would have to narrow a bit and they would need to affect Democratic ballots at a far higher rate than Republican ballots. We should obviously be concerned, but the concern trolling that this will swing the election 10 points in Trump's favor is kinda BS

Sure, but it's easy to imagine these actions robbing Democrats of a Senate majority.

How? CO and AZ will prolly flip regardless, and NC and ME have Ds as the party in power at the statewide level. This just makes Susan Collins look even more stupid for saying she's "dissapointed and dismayed" about American Democracy crumbling

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/thegarance/status/1297297208979660800

Who had "Postal workers revolt" on their 2020 bingo card?

Freedom fighters! I would love to see this civil disobedience spread throughout the country.

Thank you for doing the right thing. This isn't left v right, it's right vs wrong

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mr. Trump and his Republicansfascists have a number of potential avenues available. I expect all of them to come into play.

First, you're going to have efforts to drive down Biden's vote count. selective poll closings (or re-locations) in red states where the GOP controls the government like Georgia, Texas. Efforts to stop likely Biden voters from voting by mail, or delaying those votes to make them ineligible. Lots of false information about voting launched at the public by both the GOP, their domestic appendages and their Russian allies. Voter intimidation efforts both by propaganda and actual Republicanfascist thugs at polling places. Trump may try declaring some sort of national emergency, but it's unlikely any governments not dominated by the GOP already will let him affect the election and he's winning all those states anyway.

Second, you're going to have efforts to manipulate the totals, and simultaneously disrupt the legitimacy of the election in various states. Expect cyberattacks in blue states that have electronic voting (espeically if it lacks a readily auditable paper trail) that may do everything from alter voter rolls to actually manipulate totals. Legal and public complaints and challenges anyplace Dictator Donald doesn't win, starting on election night. Complaints from the White House and the GOP's many mouthpieces that the election is "rigged" and "stolen" starting well before election night. Fake polls showing a Trump win that will be used as "evidence" of Democratic cheating. Outright fake ballots, stolen ballots, or destroyed ballots in areas where the GOP both has the ability and can make a difference. Accusations that Chy-na is stealing the election for Biden. Stirring up civil unrest (from either the left or the right) in order to disrupt voting counting also seems possible, especially where it's taking place in the days (and even weeks) after Election Day.


Third, efforts to steal (or deny Biden) electoral votes after the votes are in. Red states with Republican-dominated governments will likely do whatever is needed to get Donald their EVs - I think Florida and Georga in particular are unwinnable for Biden for this reason. (Enough swing states are not red-dominated, or Biden would have no chance at all.) Expect post-election procedural shenanigans in any blue state where there's a significant Republican presence, or in any red state Biden accidentally manages to win. Denying Biden EVs or even casting them into doubt is nearly as good as delivering them to Trump for the GOP. An endless stream of lawsuits against any vote Biden is winning, or might win. For both AZ and NE-02, governors could send an alternate slate of electors to Congress, which would be counted as valid as long as the Senate supports them (due to how competing slates  where the House and Senate don't agree are resolved). Attempts to disrupt the meeting of the Electoral College in Biden states, or to interfere with the offical records of the vote. (That last seems like it would be very difficult, but the regime of Dictator Don has a great deal of power to abuse to has show few qualms about doing so). When Congress counts the votes in joint session, I expect the Republicans fascists to object to every single EV for Biden, even if it won't accomplish anything. This will all be accompanied by a relentless drumbeat of propaganda on the illegitimacy of any result that doesn't leave Dictator Don in charge.

Assuming they cannot outright deliver a majority using the above tactics, the GOP will likely be content to drive the election into the House, where their control of 26 state delegations can save their hold on power. If even that fails, or becomes obvious that Biden will be the victor, expect Donald Trump to "joke" about various coup scenarios and see if he gets any positive feedback. A Mussolini-style "March on Washington" would doubtless fit his dreams of dictatorship, but the Trump fascists' baseline incompetence likely makes any outright coup fail, and probably prevents one from getting off the ground in the first place. (Although Trump and his criminal syndicate will doubtless taxi one or more down the runway).

People will say you're fear-mongerering, but this is spot on.  Trump and the GOP will stop at nothing to ensure victory, and roughly 40-45% of the population will either directly support it or be too stupid/lazy to care.

I personally believe that this is an overreaction, and I doubt the GOP would actually go that far. 2022 would be a bloodbath for the GOP, and they would likely be out of power for 4 years

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's that ?

https://twitter.com/JohnBarrowman/status/1304530250487836672

Our democracy is dead

What state is this!?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1314750877442412544

I feel like this shouldn’t have been an issue in the first place. Just let the counties have as many drop boxes as they want!

[ProgressiveModerate]

More good news!
https://twitter.com/HuffPost/status/1318333945524703233?s=19

Our luck with rulings like this and others from this year is going to run out so depressingly when Amy Hotdog Barrett is confirmed...

Hopefully Dems to everything in their power to stall the ACB vote, even though she'll end up being confirmed

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also; who’s to say we won’t see a blue mirage in dorm states that start counting ballots before Election Day? I don’t necessarily think we’ll see a red or blue mirage the night of, but just a really weird map overall

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oh goodie

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1321324834727645184

Guns at the polling stations, what could go wrong?

It's personal freedom though. It's so important people can bring guns to polling stations, because some may not feel liberated or free unless they have a gun with them when they vote.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1321517036309270533
 oh good they still want my ballot invalidated

When will we know if this was successful or not?

I assume it wont be successful because the Texas SCOTUS has already slammed down other attempts to end drive up ballot drop off. 

The TX Supreme Court is pretty conservative though. If they do this, I would be so mad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Obviously, it’s scary that one political party is literally preparing to steal the election.

At the same time, I think people really overestimate what the GOP could actually do to steal the election. If PA comes down to 1000 votes, sure, but if Biden is winning well over 300 EVs there is little they can do

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1322334975102980096

Good to hear, though I want to see action, not just talk.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the election goes to SCOTUS they will rule in favor of Trump.

This is actually what the GOP is hoping for.

Literally most of the country wouldn't accept the ruling

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the election goes to SCOTUS they will rule in favor of Trump.

This is actually what the GOP is hoping for.

Literally most of the country wouldn't accept the ruling

They never cared what most of the country wanted before, why start at that point?

Daniel Dale already debunked this. Taken out of context because he was (wrongly) blaming SCOTUS for finding out the election winner later than election night. So it was a sarcastic comment about finding out the winner late.

Disclaimer so you all don’t think I’m a trumper:  Trump

Trump has made "sarcasm" a meaningless concept.

Because the ruling itself would make the court seem illegitimate, and Biden and Trump would probably both have inauguration ceremonies in Jan.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1326273311513436160

Maybe he's going to investigate what happened to Mitch McConnel's hands.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/1329629701447573504

Thank you Romney for being a sane person!

[ProgressiveModerate]

So funny how fast Mitt Romney went from being the GOP to being an outcast in his party. It's kind of sad TBH, at least in my view, to see the GOP turn against so many of it's own values so fast. Could you guys imagine Barack Obama becoming an outcast in the Democratic Party in 2024? It would be crazy. But hey, that's politics for you.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/1329629701447573504

Thank you Romney for being a sane person!

Indeed. Romney has proven that he is an honorable Republican.

It actually could be important that Romney made this statement in the situation where MI/WI/PA submit competing slates of electors. When the electoral votes are counted on Jan. 6, if both the House and Senate can agree on which electors are valid, then those are counted. Dems have 48 Senators in the next Senate. Romney is 49. I'm not sure how the Georgia seats work in this calculation with the runoff elections happening the previous day, let's assume Loeffler is still sitting and Purdue's seat is vacant. Then Dems need just one more senator, probably Collins or Murkowski, to side with them, and this would basically guarantee that the "state legislature coup" would fail.

I think there's a small chance Collins is salty after Democrats spent so much money against her, but I have a hard time seeing Lisa Murkowski not voting with the Democrats in this case, especially if American Democracy is at stake.