Voter suppresion/"stealing the election" megathread

[Inmate Trump]

Trump isn’t leaving without (A) attempting to do something illegal and (B) doing something violent to stay in power.

[Soaring_Eagle]

Inspired by this article: "Getting from November to January"

First, we are facing an “election season,” not an “Election Day.” Given that there will be unprecedented numbers of provisional, absentee, and mail-in ballots, many of which may take days to be counted, it is very possible we will not know the results of the election on the evening of November 3rd. What’s more, in many parts of the country, these so-called overtime votes will break disproportionately towards the Democrats, a process referred to as the “Blue Shift.”What this means is that it’s very possible that Trump could be leading on Election Night but would see that lead evaporate as the overtime votes are counted. This is precisely why Trump himself recently declared that he wants the results called on Election Night—i.e. before the Democratic-leaning late votes can be counted.

This longish period for vote counting opens up opportunities to manipulate the process and to sow doubt and confusion about the election results. In our scenario exercises, Team Trump attempted to claim that the late votes were fraudulent, and in one case tried to have the Department of Justice work with the Post Office to seize mailed in ballots to prevent them from being counted. In other cases, election officials were doxxed in order to intimidate them from going to work, and “second amendment types” showed up at vote counting sites to try to prevent late votes from being counted.

This very much reminds me of the infamous "Brooks Brothers riot" in 2000, where GOP operatives were flown in to disrupt the recount ahead of a court-mandated deadline and stole the election for Bush. I think the odds are relatively high that Republicans will try something of the sort again.

A plausible scenario for 2020 might be: despite losing Florida, Trump is ahead in WI+MI+PA on election night, with days of absentee ballot counting yet to begin. Trump refuses to concede, and claims "Democrat-run cities" are trying to steal the election by counting illegal votes and the count should be stopped. Far right agitators, possibly armed, attack, intimidate and disrupt counts at key polling stations, causing a delay. After two weeks with no certified result, a suit is kicked up to the Supreme Court, which in a partisan 5-4 decision orders counting to cease. When Democratic governors refuse to comply and further violence at counting stations occurs, Trump federalises the National Guard of the disputed states to end the counts and disperse massive demonstrations. The states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania refuse to certify any electoral votes in protest and in a contingent election in the House Trump is re-elected President of the United States.

Not very likely to happen, of course, but on the edge of plausibility. I hope Democrats are already thinking about what they are going to do if the election is close enough that Trump tries to pull out all the stops to dispute and steal the election result.

Foreign agitator from the UK tries to influence the
american election.

Why are you commenting on a country which
you do not live in and trying to influence their
election foreign agitator ?

Clear British Collusion for London Biden

[Granite City]

Inspired by this article: "Getting from November to January"

First, we are facing an “election season,” not an “Election Day.” Given that there will be unprecedented numbers of provisional, absentee, and mail-in ballots, many of which may take days to be counted, it is very possible we will not know the results of the election on the evening of November 3rd. What’s more, in many parts of the country, these so-called overtime votes will break disproportionately towards the Democrats, a process referred to as the “Blue Shift.”What this means is that it’s very possible that Trump could be leading on Election Night but would see that lead evaporate as the overtime votes are counted. This is precisely why Trump himself recently declared that he wants the results called on Election Night—i.e. before the Democratic-leaning late votes can be counted.

This longish period for vote counting opens up opportunities to manipulate the process and to sow doubt and confusion about the election results. In our scenario exercises, Team Trump attempted to claim that the late votes were fraudulent, and in one case tried to have the Department of Justice work with the Post Office to seize mailed in ballots to prevent them from being counted. In other cases, election officials were doxxed in order to intimidate them from going to work, and “second amendment types” showed up at vote counting sites to try to prevent late votes from being counted.

This very much reminds me of the infamous "Brooks Brothers riot" in 2000, where GOP operatives were flown in to disrupt the recount ahead of a court-mandated deadline and stole the election for Bush. I think the odds are relatively high that Republicans will try something of the sort again.

A plausible scenario for 2020 might be: despite losing Florida, Trump is ahead in WI+MI+PA on election night, with days of absentee ballot counting yet to begin. Trump refuses to concede, and claims "Democrat-run cities" are trying to steal the election by counting illegal votes and the count should be stopped. Far right agitators, possibly armed, attack, intimidate and disrupt counts at key polling stations, causing a delay. After two weeks with no certified result, a suit is kicked up to the Supreme Court, which in a partisan 5-4 decision orders counting to cease. When Democratic governors refuse to comply and further violence at counting stations occurs, Trump federalises the National Guard of the disputed states to end the counts and disperse massive demonstrations. The states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania refuse to certify any electoral votes in protest and in a contingent election in the House Trump is re-elected President of the United States.

Not very likely to happen, of course, but on the edge of plausibility. I hope Democrats are already thinking about what they are going to do if the election is close enough that Trump tries to pull out all the stops to dispute and steal the election result.

Foreign agitator from the UK tries to influence the
american election.

Why are you commenting on a country which
you do not live in and trying to influence their
election foreign agitator ?

Clear British Collusion for London Biden

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36219612

So if the OP just says that he's not influencing the election, that should be good enough for you then?

[Gary J]

As another foreign view, if three states send in no electoral vote returns, most of the precedents disregard such electoral votes in calculating the majority necessary to elect a President..

The most striking example was the 1864 election. The joint session to count the electoral votes totally ignored the electoral votes in theory allocated to the seceded states, in calculating the number of electoral votes necessary to win. If this had not been done and the states in rebellion had also been counted towards the quorum for a contingent election (if the election had been closer than it was in reality), it might not have been possible to comply with the 12th Amendment to elect a President.

If both Houses at the joint session to count the electoral votes, on January 6th, 2021, agreed that a majority meant a majority of the electoral votes actually cast then that would resolve the constitutional crisis posed in this thread.

[kph14]

First of all, Michigan won't take days to count. Oakland County released the majority of its absentee ballots the minute the polls closed. The primary was completely counted within a day. All the states mentioned have Democratic executives that control the state's election boards. They are preparing right now to staff absentee boards to count ballots as soon as possible. Pennsylvania's primary took almost a week to count and that is not great by any means. I am sure though that have learned a lot in the first election with significant absentee ballots and will be more efficient in November

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Mr. Trump and his Republicansfascists have a number of potential avenues available. I expect all of them to come into play.

First, you're going to have efforts to drive down Biden's vote count. selective poll closings (or re-locations) in red states where the GOP controls the government like Georgia, Texas. Efforts to stop likely Biden voters from voting by mail, or delaying those votes to make them ineligible. Lots of false information about voting launched at the public by both the GOP, their domestic appendages and their Russian allies. Voter intimidation efforts both by propaganda and actual Republicanfascist thugs at polling places. Trump may try declaring some sort of national emergency, but it's unlikely any governments not dominated by the GOP already will let him affect the election and he's winning all those states anyway.

Second, you're going to have efforts to manipulate the totals, and simultaneously disrupt the legitimacy of the election in various states. Expect cyberattacks in blue states that have electronic voting (espeically if it lacks a readily auditable paper trail) that may do everything from alter voter rolls to actually manipulate totals. Legal and public complaints and challenges anyplace Dictator Donald doesn't win, starting on election night. Complaints from the White House and the GOP's many mouthpieces that the election is "rigged" and "stolen" starting well before election night. Fake polls showing a Trump win that will be used as "evidence" of Democratic cheating. Outright fake ballots, stolen ballots, or destroyed ballots in areas where the GOP both has the ability and can make a difference. Accusations that Chy-na is stealing the election for Biden. Stirring up civil unrest (from either the left or the right) in order to disrupt voting counting also seems possible, especially where it's taking place in the days (and even weeks) after Election Day.


Third, efforts to steal (or deny Biden) electoral votes after the votes are in. Red states with Republican-dominated governments will likely do whatever is needed to get Donald their EVs - I think Florida and Georga in particular are unwinnable for Biden for this reason. (Enough swing states are not red-dominated, or Biden would have no chance at all.) Expect post-election procedural shenanigans in any blue state where there's a significant Republican presence, or in any red state Biden accidentally manages to win. Denying Biden EVs or even casting them into doubt is nearly as good as delivering them to Trump for the GOP. An endless stream of lawsuits against any vote Biden is winning, or might win. For both AZ and NE-02, governors could send an alternate slate of electors to Congress, which would be counted as valid as long as the Senate supports them (due to how competing slates  where the House and Senate don't agree are resolved). Attempts to disrupt the meeting of the Electoral College in Biden states, or to interfere with the offical records of the vote. (That last seems like it would be very difficult, but the regime of Dictator Don has a great deal of power to abuse to has show few qualms about doing so). When Congress counts the votes in joint session, I expect the Republicans fascists to object to every single EV for Biden, even if it won't accomplish anything. This will all be accompanied by a relentless drumbeat of propaganda on the illegitimacy of any result that doesn't leave Dictator Don in charge.

Assuming they cannot outright deliver a majority using the above tactics, the GOP will likely be content to drive the election into the House, where their control of 26 state delegations can save their hold on power. If even that fails, or becomes obvious that Biden will be the victor, expect Donald Trump to "joke" about various coup scenarios and see if he gets any positive feedback. A Mussolini-style "March on Washington" would doubtless fit his dreams of dictatorship, but the Trump fascists' baseline incompetence likely makes any outright coup fail, and probably prevents one from getting off the ground in the first place. (Although Trump and his criminal syndicate will doubtless taxi one or more down the runway).

[Inmate Trump]

Mr. Trump and his Republicansfascists have a number of potential avenues available. I expect all of them to come into play.

First, you're going to have efforts to drive down Biden's vote count. selective poll closings (or re-locations) in red states where the GOP controls the government like Georgia, Texas. Efforts to stop likely Biden voters from voting by mail, or delaying those votes to make them ineligible. Lots of false information about voting launched at the public by both the GOP, their domestic appendages and their Russian allies. Voter intimidation efforts both by propaganda and actual Republicanfascist thugs at polling places. Trump may try declaring some sort of national emergency, but it's unlikely any governments not dominated by the GOP already will let him affect the election and he's winning all those states anyway.

Second, you're going to have efforts to manipulate the totals, and simultaneously disrupt the legitimacy of the election in various states. Expect cyberattacks in blue states that have electronic voting (espeically if it lacks a readily auditable paper trail) that may do everything from alter voter rolls to actually manipulate totals. Legal and public complaints and challenges anyplace Dictator Donald doesn't win, starting on election night. Complaints from the White House and the GOP's many mouthpieces that the election is "rigged" and "stolen" starting well before election night. Fake polls showing a Trump win that will be used as "evidence" of Democratic cheating. Outright fake ballots, stolen ballots, or destroyed ballots in areas where the GOP both has the ability and can make a difference. Accusations that Chy-na is stealing the election for Biden. Stirring up civil unrest (from either the left or the right) in order to disrupt voting counting also seems possible, especially where it's taking place in the days (and even weeks) after Election Day.


Third, efforts to steal (or deny Biden) electoral votes after the votes are in. Red states with Republican-dominated governments will likely do whatever is needed to get Donald their EVs - I think Florida and Georga in particular are unwinnable for Biden for this reason. (Enough swing states are not red-dominated, or Biden would have no chance at all.) Expect post-election procedural shenanigans in any blue state where there's a significant Republican presence, or in any red state Biden accidentally manages to win. Denying Biden EVs or even casting them into doubt is nearly as good as delivering them to Trump for the GOP. An endless stream of lawsuits against any vote Biden is winning, or might win. For both AZ and NE-02, governors could send an alternate slate of electors to Congress, which would be counted as valid as long as the Senate supports them (due to how competing slates  where the House and Senate don't agree are resolved). Attempts to disrupt the meeting of the Electoral College in Biden states, or to interfere with the offical records of the vote. (That last seems like it would be very difficult, but the regime of Dictator Don has a great deal of power to abuse to has show few qualms about doing so). When Congress counts the votes in joint session, I expect the Republicans fascists to object to every single EV for Biden, even if it won't accomplish anything. This will all be accompanied by a relentless drumbeat of propaganda on the illegitimacy of any result that doesn't leave Dictator Don in charge.

Assuming they cannot outright deliver a majority using the above tactics, the GOP will likely be content to drive the election into the House, where their control of 26 state delegations can save their hold on power. If even that fails, or becomes obvious that Biden will be the victor, expect Donald Trump to "joke" about various coup scenarios and see if he gets any positive feedback. A Mussolini-style "March on Washington" would doubtless fit his dreams of dictatorship, but the Trump fascists' baseline incompetence likely makes any outright coup fail, and probably prevents one from getting off the ground in the first place. (Although Trump and his criminal syndicate will doubtless taxi one or more down the runway).

People will say you're fear-mongerering, but this is spot on.  Trump and the GOP will stop at nothing to ensure victory, and roughly 40-45% of the population will either directly support it or be too stupid/lazy to care.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mr. Trump and his Republicansfascists have a number of potential avenues available. I expect all of them to come into play.

First, you're going to have efforts to drive down Biden's vote count. selective poll closings (or re-locations) in red states where the GOP controls the government like Georgia, Texas. Efforts to stop likely Biden voters from voting by mail, or delaying those votes to make them ineligible. Lots of false information about voting launched at the public by both the GOP, their domestic appendages and their Russian allies. Voter intimidation efforts both by propaganda and actual Republicanfascist thugs at polling places. Trump may try declaring some sort of national emergency, but it's unlikely any governments not dominated by the GOP already will let him affect the election and he's winning all those states anyway.

Second, you're going to have efforts to manipulate the totals, and simultaneously disrupt the legitimacy of the election in various states. Expect cyberattacks in blue states that have electronic voting (espeically if it lacks a readily auditable paper trail) that may do everything from alter voter rolls to actually manipulate totals. Legal and public complaints and challenges anyplace Dictator Donald doesn't win, starting on election night. Complaints from the White House and the GOP's many mouthpieces that the election is "rigged" and "stolen" starting well before election night. Fake polls showing a Trump win that will be used as "evidence" of Democratic cheating. Outright fake ballots, stolen ballots, or destroyed ballots in areas where the GOP both has the ability and can make a difference. Accusations that Chy-na is stealing the election for Biden. Stirring up civil unrest (from either the left or the right) in order to disrupt voting counting also seems possible, especially where it's taking place in the days (and even weeks) after Election Day.


Third, efforts to steal (or deny Biden) electoral votes after the votes are in. Red states with Republican-dominated governments will likely do whatever is needed to get Donald their EVs - I think Florida and Georga in particular are unwinnable for Biden for this reason. (Enough swing states are not red-dominated, or Biden would have no chance at all.) Expect post-election procedural shenanigans in any blue state where there's a significant Republican presence, or in any red state Biden accidentally manages to win. Denying Biden EVs or even casting them into doubt is nearly as good as delivering them to Trump for the GOP. An endless stream of lawsuits against any vote Biden is winning, or might win. For both AZ and NE-02, governors could send an alternate slate of electors to Congress, which would be counted as valid as long as the Senate supports them (due to how competing slates  where the House and Senate don't agree are resolved). Attempts to disrupt the meeting of the Electoral College in Biden states, or to interfere with the offical records of the vote. (That last seems like it would be very difficult, but the regime of Dictator Don has a great deal of power to abuse to has show few qualms about doing so). When Congress counts the votes in joint session, I expect the Republicans fascists to object to every single EV for Biden, even if it won't accomplish anything. This will all be accompanied by a relentless drumbeat of propaganda on the illegitimacy of any result that doesn't leave Dictator Don in charge.

Assuming they cannot outright deliver a majority using the above tactics, the GOP will likely be content to drive the election into the House, where their control of 26 state delegations can save their hold on power. If even that fails, or becomes obvious that Biden will be the victor, expect Donald Trump to "joke" about various coup scenarios and see if he gets any positive feedback. A Mussolini-style "March on Washington" would doubtless fit his dreams of dictatorship, but the Trump fascists' baseline incompetence likely makes any outright coup fail, and probably prevents one from getting off the ground in the first place. (Although Trump and his criminal syndicate will doubtless taxi one or more down the runway).

People will say you're fear-mongerering, but this is spot on.  Trump and the GOP will stop at nothing to ensure victory, and roughly 40-45% of the population will either directly support it or be too stupid/lazy to care.

I personally believe that this is an overreaction, and I doubt the GOP would actually go that far. 2022 would be a bloodbath for the GOP, and they would likely be out of power for 4 years

[VBM]

This is why swing state Democrats have got to vote in person

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/cnnpolitics/status/1299203081431851009

Ridiculous, but at least an effort to correct it is already underway. Hopefully it includes an explanatory letter so voters aren't left in the dark about why they're receiving new forms.

[brucejoel99]

What sort of action? Above all, the media has an obligation to promote accurate reporting - particularly to make sure that the public understands that we will not have results on Election Night. Responsible media organizations must take care not to report (or allow the viral dissemination of) unverified rumors of election shenanigans or to treat a few isolated cases of miscues as a reason to doubt the integrity of the results as a whole. Social media platforms in particular need to have strategies to remove/correct inaccurate information, or at least prevent it from going viral, and to stop their platforms from being used to organize violence. Finally, police and other law enforcement organizations need to start planning now for large protests, including possibly competing protests and agents provocateurs, and to identify de-escalation strategies to avoid violent conflict.

So, we're f**ked?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stealing the election, we still have Ukraine Biden and Reade allegations that main media swept under rug

[Admiral Stockdale]

Mr. Trump and his Republicansfascists have a number of potential avenues available. I expect all of them to come into play.

...

Maybe I am being naive, but I can't see it coming to this.  If you are going to potentially go this far, why not just halt the election now?   

Let's say Trump gets 44% of the popular vote - I wouldn't suspect that ALL of those people would support these approaches.  Even if it is 30% of the voting public in support of Trump At All Costs, you have 70% that would be against it.  The rest of the world (with some exceptions) would likely not recognize the legitimacy of the Presidency.  It's one thing to stand behind a no-mask, open the economy message as an old time GOP governor, but to actively participate in what is essentially a coup - across multiple states?  Despite SCOTUS leaning right, Roberts and others are not all Clarence Thomases.

Will there be intimidation, suppression, "letter of the law" tossing of ballots - Yes.  This goes on all the time (by both parties depending on the time in US history).  Will it be so widespread and coordinated across all levels of government with a broad-based inter-state conspiracy - I really, really doubt it.

A low-mid 330's level EC win by Biden with an ~8% popular vote margin (my CURRENT take) gets a bunch of Twitter bellyaching by Trump (unfounded theories, etc.), no actual concession (there doesn't need to be), and a hamfisted transition period with Trump not attending the inaugural.  Then years of Trump tweets attacking Biden/Harris and guest spots on FoxNews. 

Like I said, I could be very wrong - and I hope I am right - but I can't see the situation as you describe playing out.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Tierney_Megan/status/1299387759287775232

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before, if Trump wins kudos, but the election doesnt belong to anyone, Ds were taking a risk on Ukraine Biden and Reade Biden. It's always the option of delegates to override the voters choice, if a scandal breaks out and give it to Bernie. Ds were more than willing to do that in 2016 with Hillary If she got indicted and RFK in 1968 with a wobbly HHH. Reade came a mnth after the voters decided anyways and he did sexually harrassed Reade

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/Tierney_Megan/status/1299387759287775232

Love what the NBA players are doing here!

[GP270watch]

 By using every lever of government at his disposal to steal it. By using foreign influence to benefit him and using allies at the state level to also help him cheat and/or suppress votes.

 Trump is a lowlife who has cheated at every level and aspect of his time on Earth. He cheated in school, cheated to get into college, cheated his family members out of money, cheated small business contractors out of money, cheated on his taxes, cheated on every partner, lies and cheats about nearly every subject he talks about, encouraged and welcomed foreign cheating in 2016. Do ya'll really believe this man isn't going to cheat in the 2020 election?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Mr. Trump and his Republicansfascists have a number of potential avenues available. I expect all of them to come into play.

...

Maybe I am being naive, but I can't see it coming to this.  If you are going to potentially go this far, why not just halt the election now?  

Let's say Trump gets 44% of the popular vote - I wouldn't suspect that ALL of those people would support these approaches.  Even if it is 30% of the voting public in support of Trump At All Costs, you have 70% that would be against it.  The rest of the world (with some exceptions) would likely not recognize the legitimacy of the Presidency.  It's one thing to stand behind a no-mask, open the economy message as an old time GOP governor, but to actively participate in what is essentially a coup - across multiple states?  Despite SCOTUS leaning right, Roberts and others are not all Clarence Thomases.

Will there be intimidation, suppression, "letter of the law" tossing of ballots - Yes.  This goes on all the time (by both parties depending on the time in US history).  Will it be so widespread and coordinated across all levels of government with a broad-based inter-state conspiracy - I really, really doubt it.

A low-mid 330's level EC win by Biden with an ~8% popular vote margin (my CURRENT take) gets a bunch of Twitter bellyaching by Trump (unfounded theories, etc.), no actual concession (there doesn't need to be), and a hamfisted transition period with Trump not attending the inaugural.  Then years of Trump tweets attacking Biden/Harris and guest spots on FoxNews.  

Like I said, I could be very wrong - and I hope I am right - but I can't see the situation as you describe playing out.

For whatever it is worth, I very much hope that I am very wrong and you are the accurate prognosticator.

The reason to not just declare an emergency and halt the election now is basically the parable about the frog in boiling water. It is easier to kill our Republic with a thousand cuts than a single coup de main. It doesn't need to be any sort of organized conspriracy. All it takes is individual Republicans in key  places choosing Donald Trump over rule of law and each doing what they can to sabotage the election in Donald Trump's favor. I don't find that difficult to imagine.

Donald Trump and his fellow American fascists have already taken  - with little effective oppositon - a series of actions that were utterly unthinkable a mere four years ago.

Blackmailing Ukraine to smear Biden.

Letting a pandemic ravage America because it was mostly in states that voted Democratic.

Openly sabotaging the Postal Service.

Flagranty celebrating an epic violation of the Hatch Act.

And on and on and on.

Perhaps all Trump supporters wouldn't support what I describe if it were all laid out in front of them. (Although I'm not nearly so confident as you.) But it's not going to be. I doubt Trump will declare himself dictator in the weeks after November, no matter what the outcome. (I'm not quite so confident about the weeks before the election...) But, like our democracy, a Biden victory will be dealt the death of a thousand cuts. And most voters will only see a handful of those, accompanied by an incessant bombardment of Trump saying variations of "It's a fraud, I really won".

As with most of his charades, the goal is to leave viewers overwhelmed, numbed and confused as to what's really happening when Donald Trump formally claims the victory he's been insisting is his for two months. The courts will be ignored when possible, dismissed when they can't be ignored. If the Robert's court does somehow manage to rule that Biden becomes President? Trump will claim it "doesn't count" for some trumped-up reason. Maybe one of his babysitters will even managed to get him to repeat Andrew Jackson's quote. (Perhaps during his inaugural address?)


There are two routes I can see to stoping it. One is a Biden victory big enough that it can't be stolen like this, or that fear of the consequences of stealing it leads MoscowMitch and his ilk to abandon Donald and seek protective camouflage as dedidicated public servants. The other is that it's fought out in courts and elsewhere enough to let Biden get and keep an EC win. Then, I think you're right that Trump basically raves and gets ignored until the inaguration.

[Arkansas Yankee]

By paying BLM AND Antifa to riot.   

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/TomNamako/status/1299437141261463553

[Oryxslayer]

Terry Pratchett has a great quote on this topic, and he of course is just summarizing the extensive works of Voltaire into a form understandable to the common reader.

"The only thing known to go faster than ordinary light is monarchy.You can't have more than one king, and tradition demands that there is no gap between kings, so when a king dies the succession must therefore pass to the heir instantaneously."

This principle is just as powerful in elective presidential republics, especially in full view of the public, since a president is just an elected and shackled king. The moment results tick in on election night a new or incumbent president is conferred the legitimacy of office and the public's expectations. The loser is just that, a loser.

So what does this mean for 2020? Trump is trying everything to hold on to power right now and throwing uncertainty into the normal electoral process. This is the nationalization of tactics we have seen in states like Wisconsin and North Carolina. However, in both states the GOP did/does not attempt to damage the sanctity of the vote. When they lost the governor's offices by slim margins, the incumbents were left out to dry and those in the legislature prepared for an era of confrontation. On one level, this stems from the fact that the 1000s of local politicians are elected on the same ballot as the topline, and so disrupting the legitimacy of one naturally throws the legitimacy of the other into question. It mostly though stems from the fact that a loser is a loser. Why would you stick our your neck to risk your position for someone who has lost the mantle of legitimacy? Sure there are a few die-hards, but the majority follow principles of self-interest.

Now you might say wait - this is no longer going to be decided on election night, it's election week. That is partially correct. Most of the states allow mail voting, but count those votes on election night. Certain states take a while to finalize their totals, counting votes postmarked before election day that showed up late as part of their totals. Key states like Florida and North Carolina though will have 95%+ of their votes counted before the sun rises on Wednesday, ensuring that the media can project a winner, even if the final totals are uncertain. It's also improtant in this regard to remember that the media will insta-call most of the states, even if their votes won't all be in until December like New York or California.

Then we get to the second big question: are the GOP going to abandon Trump after all 4 years of supplication? The answer is...no, which seems weird given what I have already said. Lets now turn to the example of Poland. On April 10th 2010, a Airplane went down in fog over Smolensk, killing 96 people. It was a govt plane. Among the dead were President Lech Kaczyński, leading members of PiS parliamentary leadership, Military leaders, and public polish notables. Both the Polish and Russian reports found no criminal or purposeful motives - it was a true accident caused by inadequate training, preparation, and bureaucratic negligence. This didn't stop the conspiracy theories. Almost immediately is became a PiS talking point that the crash was not an accident. Ascension up the party ladder requires a public image that conforms to one conspiracy or another.

This is the easy option. Sticking out ones neck in an act of self-sacrifice for a visible loser or admitting the truth is hard. Waiting until you are secure and then propagating the theories that Trump will no doubt try to encourage on his way out - that is easy. You as a local politician have no impact on the actions individuals take if they believe a conspiracy, but propagating it reconfirms your commitment to the party and may energize the radicals into turning out.

In conclusion, once you lose, you are no longer worth defending, even though you might still be a political asset.

[Crumpets]

Trump dresses up as Santa Claus and breaks into newspaper printers across the country on election night to steal all of the reports of Biden winning and then is flabbergasted when everyone still celebrates Biden's election the next day.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/contentedindie/status/1299466451083046913

[DaleCooper]

I actually think that Bevin's attempt to stay in office in the immediate aftermath of losing reelection is a pretty good foreshadowing of what Trump does if he loses, as well as how the Republican Party will react. The big difference is that Bevin didn't have the slavishly faithful cult that Trump does, so that will be much uglier.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/contentedindie/status/1299466451083046913

And probably the entire election too then.