Here's my election prediction....

[NHPolitico]

I predict (THIS MAY CHANGE):

John Kerry narrowly beats John Edwards for the nomination. Kerry then has to decide on a running mate. Many thoughts are hinted such as Bob Graham, Joseph Biden, and John Edwards himself. For awhile it looks like it will be a Kerry-Biden ticket, but soon Edwards is chosen by Kerry.

Bush has a very tough choice to make. Drop Vice President Cheney, or keep him. Cheney is dropped, due to his health. President Bush has a very tough decision. Elizabeth Dole, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Frist, Tom Ridge, and many more could be asked. Bush chooses Giuliani as his running mate.

On Election Night, Bush-Giuliani beats Kerry-Edwards by 405 to 133 votes.

Well, what do you think? Post your predicts like I did, and I will soon put my 2008 predictions.

Yep. Cheney will announce that he'll serve out the term, but Rudy will be announced as the VP pick right before the Dem convention to step on their convention.

[NHPolitico]

But I'd say its a 99.5% chance Cheney is still Bush's running mate come election time.

I just have such a weird sixth sense on that. I'd lower those odds a lot, as ridiculous as it might strike some folks. Bush knows how to hold things close to the vest. He has shown he can keep really big secrets-- Homeland Security Dept, Thanksgiving visit, first Iraq air strikes, etc.

[NHPolitico]

But I'd say its a 99.5% chance Cheney is still Bush's running mate come election time.

I just have such a weird sixth sense on that. I'd lower those odds a lot, as ridiculous as it might strike some folks. Bush knows how to hold things close to the vest. He has shown he can keep really big secrets-- Homeland Security Dept, Thanksgiving visit, first Iraq air strikes, etc.

There's so much riding on this election, and it looks so close, that it would definitely be worth changing VP's.  However I doubt it would make much difference.  Incumbents run on their record, not on new faces.

It would always depend on how close it's looking at that point, and if the Bush campaign decides on"reaching out" or on keeping the base together. They would have an A-1 excuse to the conservatives for dumping Cheney - his heart - and could appoint someone with a more moderate reputation, someone from outside the administration's inner circle, as veep. Giuliani would be a possible choice, so would be some moderate Senator or Governor (provided he's well known enough).
As I said, it depends on two questions:
-would it help
- do they feel they need that help

I'd like to think that conservatives view Bush as conservative enough that he doesn't need a conservative VP.  That could give him latitude to reach out to moderates with Rudy.