Which states will trend the most Democratic/Republican?

[ProgCon]

I have found myself pondering this question, especially in a unique Clinton v. Trump election. I mean no offense to anyone who is a Cruz or Sanders fan (of which I am the latter), but this simply seems the most interesting of the likely general election match-ups. My personal opinion is that Utah will trend the most Democratic, although I would not assert that Trump would lose the state, whereas West Virginia will trend the most Republican. What are your thoughts?

[Dr. Arch]

Utah will be a really sharp D trend because of Trump, and WV will be an R trend because, to paraphrase another poster on Atlas, Trump was made for it.

[Xing]

I'm not sure WV will trend the most Republican. I mean, it was already very strongly Republican in 2012, how much further can it go? Then again, I'm not sure which other state could go further to the right. Maybe Tennessee? Mississippi, due to inelasticity?

As for which state will trend the most Democratic, Utah is the obvious choice, since part of that will simply be regression to the mean.

[Flake]

For the Democrats: Utah, and that's because of two things. 1) 2012 was so lopsided because Romney was a mormon and it would have trended to the Democrats this year. 2) Donald Trump is literally the worst Republican candidate for that state.

For the Republicans: West Virginia, and it's because Trump's message appeals to rural white people, and I think the only candidate that would maybe perform better than him (and that's a big maybe) is Cruz.

[Figueira]

Utah for the Democrats. It's going from having its favorite person ever as the Republican nominee to its least favorite person ever. Even if Trump wins it by 10 points, that's still a huge shift.

For the Republicans, I don't know, but I doubt it will be any of the ones listed.

[/]

Utah will be a really sharp D trend because of Trump, and WV will be an R trend because, to paraphrase another poster on Atlas, Trump was made for it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Utah will be a really sharp D trend because of Trump, and WV will be an R trend because, to paraphrase another poster on Atlas, Trump was made for it.

I want to agree, but WV is a once-traditionally Democratic state that gave Romney a 27-point victory.  How much more R can it go?

[Mallow]

Utah for the Democrats. It's going from having its favorite person ever as the Republican nominee to its least favorite person ever. Even if Trump wins it by 10 points, that's still a huge shift.

For the Republicans, I don't know, but I doubt it will be any of the ones listed.

This. My suspicion for the biggest R shift for Trump is something like OK, LA, or AL, with even an outside chance of something like CO or PA.

[Kingpoleon]

UT/TN

[Figueira]

I'm not sure WV will trend the most Republican. I mean, it was already very strongly Republican in 2012, how much further can it go? Then again, I'm not sure which other state could go further to the right. Maybe Tennessee? Mississippi, due to inelasticity?

As for which state will trend the most Democratic, Utah is the obvious choice, since part of that will simply be regression to the mean.

The thing about Mississippi is that it's trending heavily D naturally, so it will be hard for Trump to counteract that. The only way it trends heavily R is if Trump loses in a HUGE landslide across the board due to moderates abandoning him (while conservatives mostly stay on board).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This. My suspicion for the biggest R shift for Trump is something like OK, LA, or AL, with even an outside chance of something like CO or PA.

I have a terrible feeling that Clinton will do much better than Obama in the "fringe South" (KY, TN, AR) simply by virtue of having white skin.  And that this will offset Trump's strengths in the region.  I don't want to believe that's the driving force behind the hatred of Obama.  I want to believe people are better than that.

[Mallow]

This. My suspicion for the biggest R shift for Trump is something like OK, LA, or AL, with even an outside chance of something like CO or PA.

I have a terrible feeling that Clinton will do much better than Obama in the "fringe South" (KY, TN, AR) simply by virtue of having white skin.  And that this will offset Trump's strengths in the region.  I don't want to believe that's the driving force behind the hatred of Obama.  I want to believe people are better than that.

Agreed, which is why I didn't include the ones you mentioned (or WV, MO, or IN), states that have "trended" hard right since 2000. I assume some of this trend is, unfortunately, racism related.

[nclib]

Utah is a good choice for Dem trend--even in 2008-like election, both in Utah and nationwide, would have Utah as the strongest Dem trend (since Utah had the highest Repub trend in 2012).

It's hard to imagine West Virginia moving even further right, I would only see this is the country moves left and WV stays the same.

Don't know why Ark. is listed, yes a good fit for Trump, but Clinton may get a first lady bounce.

This. My suspicion for the biggest R shift for Trump is something like OK, LA, or AL, with even an outside chance of something like CO or PA.

I have a terrible feeling that Clinton will do much better than Obama in the "fringe South" (KY, TN, AR) simply by virtue of having white skin.  And that this will offset Trump's strengths in the region.  I don't want to believe that's the driving force behind the hatred of Obama.  I want to believe people are better than that.

Agreed, which is why I didn't include the ones you mentioned (or WV, MO, or IN), states that have "trended" hard right since 2000. I assume some of this trend is, unfortunately, racism related.

[Boston Bread]

Utah (D) and other (R). I think it will be a wild card like Hawaii.

[standwrand]

CO will trend R whoever the nominee is because Obama won't be on the ticket. WV can't really trend any more R than it is, but I guess it might. NH, UT, AZ and NC will trend D

[Mallow]

Utah is a good choice for Dem trend--even in 2008-like election, both in Utah and nationwide, would have Utah as the strongest Dem trend (since Utah had the highest Repub trend in 2012).

It's hard to imagine West Virginia moving even further right, I would only see this is the country moves left and WV stays the same.

Don't know why Ark. is listed, yes a good fit for Trump, but Clinton may get a first lady bounce.

This. My suspicion for the biggest R shift for Trump is something like OK, LA, or AL, with even an outside chance of something like CO or PA.

I have a terrible feeling that Clinton will do much better than Obama in the "fringe South" (KY, TN, AR) simply by virtue of having white skin.  And that this will offset Trump's strengths in the region.  I don't want to believe that's the driving force behind the hatred of Obama.  I want to believe people are better than that.

Agreed, which is why I didn't include the ones you mentioned (or WV, MO, or IN), states that have "trended" hard right since 2000. I assume some of this trend is, unfortunately, racism related.

Ya not sure how that happened. I think I must have meant LA.

[Orser67]

Utah seems like the obvious choice for Democrats, but I'm not sure about any of these states in terms of trending Republican. Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia have already shifted strongly towards Republicans. I don't think that Pennsylvania will shift towards Republicans in 2016.